This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the JJA 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 13 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th May 2026 and Thursday 6th August 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
JJA 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania LP 1 LPM 1 0.174 0.295 0.058 0.086 0.011 0.069 0.083 0.095 0.224 0.257 0.124 0.287 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 2 0.174 0.292 0.055 0.076 0.031 0.081 0.062 0.096 0.228 0.282 0.112 0.26 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 4 0.163 0.273 0.049 0.078 0.026 0.074 0.058 0.088 0.223 0.242 0.107 0.268 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 7 0.157 0.267 0.035 0.068 0.023 0.079 0.05 0.081 0.22 0.25 0.098 0.203 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 3 0.167 0.279 0.037 0.123 0.017 0.1 0.049 0.09 0.245 0.24 0.1 0.245 AIFS 3 AIFShera 6 0.16 0.27 0.03 0.114 0.008 0.105 0.039 0.088 0.242 0.242 0.087 0.223 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 11 0.148 0.249 0.025 0.115 0.011 0.089 0.045 0.069 0.209 0.203 0.089 0.22 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 5 0.161 0.272 0.048 0.076 0.021 0.067 0.083 0.093 0.208 0.234 0.114 0.244 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 9 0.155 0.267 0.039 0.072 0.015 0.056 0.079 0.081 0.203 0.228 0.107 0.251 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 18 0.124 0.234 0.002 0.029 -0.015 0.069 0.053 0.056 0.165 0.17 0.07 0.208 MicroEnsemble 5 MicroDuet 8 0.155 0.255 0.055 0.089 0.027 0.062 0.068 0.098 0.208 0.208 0.109 0.268 MicroEnsemble 5 StillLearning 10 0.152 0.245 0.06 0.086 0.033 0.066 0.067 0.099 0.208 0.198 0.119 0.259 MicroEnsemble 5 Huracan 17 0.127 0.226 0.024 0.095 0.002 0.014 0.053 0.065 0.192 0.157 0.076 0.238 MetaCarbon3060 6 PuyunEnsemble 12 0.141 0.246 0.033 0.054 0.028 0.051 0.045 0.065 0.164 0.217 0.11 0.232 MetaCarbon3060 6 PuyunWeather 14 0.136 0.24 0.024 0.047 0.027 0.041 0.051 0.071 0.158 0.21 0.097 0.241 MetaCarbon3060 6 PuyunLDM 15 0.129 0.234 0.017 0.044 0.021 0.045 0.023 0.054 0.15 0.205 0.095 0.223 SBUHybrid 7 HybridStillDeveloping 13 0.14 0.245 0.04 0.053 0.018 0.03 0.035 0.068 0.178 0.216 0.105 0.219 SBUHybrid 7 HybridPPx 21 0.115 0.207 0.023 0.043 0.006 0.019 0.022 0.019 0.137 0.204 0.077 0.172 SBUHybrid 7 HybridAC 22 0.098 0.17 0.025 0.038 0.01 0.029 0.027 0.008 0.1 0.171 0.047 0.162 Arcana 8 ArcanaSpherical 16 0.127 0.23 0.002 0.03 0.003 0.095 0.002 0.06 0.17 0.208 0.051 0.198 Arcana 8 ArcanaSphericalv2 19 0.12 0.232 -0.015 0.033 -0.015 0.054 -0.013 0.038 0.178 0.187 0.041 0.241 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 20 0.117 0.205 0.01 0.061 0.005 0.058 0.008 0.034 0.178 0.136 0.08 0.181 scienceAI 10 zephyr 23 0.094 0.151 0.028 0.033 0.016 0.043 0.05 0.047 0.101 0.115 0.073 0.132 scienceAI 10 ngcm 24 0.086 0.143 0.028 0.035 0.005 0.008 0.03 0.045 0.086 0.116 0.065 0.121 scienceAI 10 findforecast 29 0.035 0.055 0.025 0.001 0.016 0.0 0.005 0.016 0.052 0.076 0.035 0.021
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.168 0.286 0.061 0.05 0.033 0.046 0.064 0.103 0.23 0.268 0.108 0.238 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.156 0.264 0.055 0.053 0.027 0.045 0.061 0.089 0.233 0.219 0.102 0.252 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 5 0.151 0.263 0.045 0.034 0.022 0.041 0.049 0.095 0.215 0.242 0.094 0.178 LP 2 LPM 2 0.165 0.29 0.054 0.058 0.005 0.029 0.07 0.082 0.246 0.234 0.121 0.268 CLINT 3 CLINTMF 4 0.151 0.264 0.046 0.047 0.018 0.03 0.069 0.08 0.226 0.207 0.112 0.234 CLINT 3 CLINTDD 8 0.139 0.256 0.028 0.044 -0.003 0.029 0.06 0.065 0.226 0.195 0.089 0.226 CLINT 3 CLINTSE 18 0.112 0.221 0.003 0.011 -0.018 0.034 0.032 0.046 0.195 0.131 0.068 0.202 MicroEnsemble 4 MicroDuet 6 0.146 0.25 0.05 0.055 0.018 0.038 0.054 0.085 0.217 0.186 0.108 0.248 MicroEnsemble 4 StillLearning 7 0.142 0.237 0.056 0.055 0.024 0.036 0.052 0.087 0.218 0.178 0.113 0.237 MicroEnsemble 4 Huracan 14 0.122 0.23 0.022 0.055 -0.013 -0.009 0.045 0.054 0.21 0.146 0.076 0.228 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunEnsemble 9 0.139 0.241 0.038 0.052 -0.001 0.041 0.037 0.074 0.22 0.2 0.079 0.224 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunWeather 11 0.137 0.24 0.037 0.05 0.012 0.025 0.056 0.07 0.219 0.187 0.091 0.203 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunLDM 17 0.12 0.219 0.016 0.04 -0.014 0.032 0.014 0.063 0.2 0.183 0.046 0.206 AIFS 6 AIFSthalassa 10 0.138 0.249 0.02 0.063 0.005 0.051 0.02 0.065 0.209 0.19 0.081 0.21 AIFS 6 AIFShera 12 0.134 0.247 0.013 0.053 0.002 0.045 0.009 0.054 0.203 0.197 0.082 0.206 AIFS 6 AIFSgaia 15 0.12 0.222 0.013 0.048 -0.006 0.035 0.019 0.059 0.187 0.164 0.06 0.168 SBUHybrid 7 HybridStillDeveloping 13 0.129 0.235 0.036 0.025 0.009 0.006 0.033 0.065 0.186 0.202 0.093 0.196 SBUHybrid 7 HybridPPx 16 0.12 0.224 0.022 0.026 -0.006 -0.011 0.012 0.029 0.17 0.188 0.095 0.179 SBUHybrid 7 HybridAC 22 0.093 0.174 0.011 0.016 0.002 -0.013 0.006 -0.006 0.113 0.148 0.061 0.161 Arcana 8 ArcanaSpherical 19 0.104 0.216 -0.019 -0.001 -0.038 0.03 0.008 0.033 0.134 0.208 0.016 0.201 Arcana 8 ArcanaSphericalv2 21 0.095 0.205 -0.034 -0.001 -0.045 0.02 -0.015 0.038 0.153 0.167 -0.003 0.195 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 20 0.102 0.189 0.013 0.016 -0.005 0.012 0.005 0.047 0.159 0.102 0.063 0.172 scienceAI 10 zephyr 23 0.092 0.152 0.028 0.019 0.018 0.039 0.043 0.052 0.1 0.108 0.071 0.13 scienceAI 10 ngcm 26 0.083 0.139 0.032 0.023 0.007 0.005 0.029 0.052 0.09 0.109 0.059 0.115 scienceAI 10 findforecast 29 0.037 0.062 0.027 -0.002 0.016 -0.015 0.006 0.022 0.057 0.078 0.038 0.026
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated on Sept 12, 2026
8 minute read
