This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the JJA 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 5 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th May 2026 and Thursday 11th June 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
JJA 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.126 0.201 0.043 0.044 0.049 0.092 0.054 0.077 0.13 0.215 0.091 0.199 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.112 0.184 0.029 0.063 0.036 0.075 0.058 0.061 0.112 0.173 0.081 0.237 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 8 0.111 0.175 0.033 0.036 0.041 0.085 0.05 0.059 0.12 0.178 0.089 0.152 LP 2 LPM 2 0.119 0.212 0.041 0.064 -0.017 0.056 0.089 0.056 0.103 0.18 0.091 0.243 AIFS 3 AIFShera 4 0.111 0.188 0.02 0.072 -0.002 0.101 0.015 0.087 0.106 0.194 0.06 0.177 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 9 0.11 0.188 0.016 0.082 -0.003 0.097 0.022 0.068 0.106 0.164 0.068 0.208 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 12 0.088 0.157 0.006 0.05 -0.027 0.094 0.021 0.038 0.06 0.117 0.069 0.172 MicroEnsemble 4 MicroDuet 5 0.111 0.183 0.046 0.077 0.02 0.056 0.08 0.079 0.111 0.152 0.086 0.219 MicroEnsemble 4 StillLearning 10 0.107 0.173 0.049 0.072 0.027 0.045 0.08 0.076 0.104 0.139 0.087 0.212 MicroEnsemble 4 Huracan 15 0.072 0.128 0.016 0.088 0.0 0.021 0.053 0.045 0.05 0.07 0.057 0.197 CLINT 5 CLINTDD 6 0.111 0.178 0.042 0.043 0.029 0.072 0.108 0.062 0.071 0.15 0.101 0.201 CLINT 5 CLINTMF 7 0.111 0.18 0.039 0.047 0.02 0.078 0.109 0.061 0.075 0.15 0.097 0.198 CLINT 5 CLINTSE 19 0.059 0.119 -0.019 0.008 -0.036 0.115 0.085 0.011 -0.03 0.05 0.027 0.185 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 11 0.101 0.175 0.036 0.032 0.026 0.024 0.054 0.026 0.08 0.169 0.093 0.183 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 20 0.057 0.104 0.019 -0.002 0.013 0.009 0.029 -0.021 -0.043 0.146 0.074 0.131 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 25 0.036 0.061 0.024 -0.019 0.01 0.019 0.039 -0.037 -0.094 0.104 0.053 0.11 scienceAI 7 zephyr 13 0.078 0.129 0.028 0.009 0.032 0.048 0.037 0.04 0.007 0.107 0.085 0.14 scienceAI 7 ngcm 18 0.065 0.109 0.026 0.024 0.02 0.019 0.027 0.035 -0.003 0.096 0.059 0.137 scienceAI 7 findforecast 27 0.031 0.047 0.013 0.022 0.032 0.009 0.006 0.009 0.041 0.071 0.028 0.034 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunEnsemble 14 0.078 0.15 -0.011 0.033 -0.0 0.045 0.007 0.034 0.136 0.1 0.031 0.164 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunWeather 17 0.065 0.128 0.002 0.021 0.015 0.018 0.063 0.053 0.045 0.088 0.032 0.174 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunLDM 23 0.04 0.11 -0.064 0.025 -0.02 0.032 -0.068 0.01 0.108 0.042 -0.036 0.149 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 16 0.068 0.127 -0.0 0.027 -0.006 0.057 0.029 -0.009 0.015 0.103 0.065 0.141 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather 21 0.046 0.081 0.022 0.018 0.006 -0.019 0.011 0.028 0.025 0.074 0.045 0.108 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather2 22 0.045 0.082 0.022 0.01 -0.001 -0.038 0.009 0.029 -0.002 0.075 0.052 0.132
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.134 0.217 0.063 -0.005 0.041 0.075 0.068 0.082 0.145 0.227 0.105 0.148 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 2 0.119 0.197 0.056 -0.028 0.033 0.061 0.06 0.071 0.137 0.197 0.108 0.084 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.117 0.197 0.054 0.005 0.033 0.04 0.074 0.059 0.143 0.169 0.1 0.186 LP 2 LPM 4 0.109 0.206 0.038 0.01 -0.019 0.002 0.079 0.014 0.153 0.148 0.108 0.174 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 5 0.106 0.183 0.048 0.021 0.008 0.033 0.06 0.051 0.145 0.133 0.094 0.165 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 7 0.102 0.175 0.051 0.021 0.008 0.008 0.061 0.052 0.147 0.127 0.095 0.162 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 15 0.067 0.138 0.019 0.019 -0.02 -0.026 0.042 0.005 0.085 0.052 0.069 0.158 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 6 0.104 0.178 0.042 -0.004 0.025 0.026 0.096 0.029 0.128 0.114 0.117 0.158 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 8 0.101 0.177 0.039 -0.01 0.018 0.023 0.095 0.024 0.129 0.111 0.116 0.153 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 22 0.05 0.114 -0.012 -0.059 -0.02 0.056 0.065 -0.027 0.043 -0.006 0.057 0.126 AIFS 5 AIFShera 9 0.096 0.183 0.012 -0.017 -0.003 0.033 0.02 0.034 0.114 0.164 0.086 0.099 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 10 0.094 0.176 0.008 0.015 -0.008 0.042 0.018 0.032 0.131 0.136 0.072 0.118 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 12 0.076 0.152 0.004 -0.007 -0.031 0.027 0.014 0.024 0.117 0.118 0.054 0.061 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 11 0.087 0.167 0.024 -0.018 0.006 -0.008 0.038 0.023 0.08 0.148 0.086 0.137 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 16 0.065 0.134 0.013 -0.019 -0.016 -0.034 0.016 -0.028 0.01 0.115 0.086 0.136 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 24 0.043 0.089 0.002 -0.027 -0.005 -0.038 0.011 -0.051 -0.033 0.075 0.05 0.123 scienceAI 7 zephyr 13 0.074 0.129 0.027 -0.013 0.028 0.024 0.044 0.026 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.115 scienceAI 7 ngcm 18 0.063 0.11 0.023 0.013 0.006 0.011 0.034 0.023 0.022 0.084 0.054 0.119 scienceAI 7 findforecast 28 0.032 0.053 0.019 0.004 0.026 -0.013 0.014 0.016 0.043 0.069 0.03 0.043 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunWeather 14 0.072 0.14 0.013 0.006 -0.006 0.007 0.056 0.027 0.12 0.067 0.057 0.097 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunEnsemble 17 0.063 0.126 0.005 -0.001 -0.035 0.024 0.013 0.011 0.118 0.1 0.02 0.122 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunLDM 30 0.023 0.083 -0.052 -0.011 -0.066 0.013 -0.044 -0.013 0.088 0.056 -0.06 0.095 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 19 0.062 0.131 0.005 -0.056 -0.016 0.013 0.023 -0.012 0.004 0.082 0.07 0.109 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather2 20 0.054 0.101 0.024 -0.017 -0.008 -0.027 0.005 0.021 0.019 0.089 0.057 0.134 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather 21 0.053 0.095 0.024 -0.002 0.001 -0.011 0.009 0.023 0.039 0.085 0.049 0.11
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated on Jul 18, 2026
8 minute read
