This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 13 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 7th May 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
MAM 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.082 0.132 0.056 0.03 0.018 0.021 0.017 0.105 0.04 0.127 0.076 0.095 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 2 0.076 0.126 0.045 0.037 -0.012 0.042 0.006 0.08 0.063 0.126 0.065 0.072 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 10 0.039 0.067 0.02 0.023 -0.002 0.002 -0.03 0.065 0.018 0.058 0.029 0.047 LP 2 LPM 3 0.073 0.112 0.052 0.034 0.042 0.02 0.02 0.098 0.021 0.107 0.066 0.092 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 4 0.07 0.109 0.054 0.034 0.015 0.021 0.033 0.078 0.03 0.111 0.063 0.098 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 5 0.063 0.1 0.05 0.034 0.007 0.013 0.025 0.07 0.022 0.104 0.063 0.095 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 8 0.058 0.085 0.049 0.026 0.019 0.014 0.034 0.081 -0.001 0.068 0.055 0.095 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 6 0.062 0.088 0.047 0.011 0.05 0.02 0.005 0.111 0.022 0.068 0.057 0.068 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 7 0.061 0.088 0.045 0.016 0.047 0.019 0.002 0.111 0.027 0.065 0.055 0.072 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 12 0.029 0.048 0.019 -0.009 0.038 -0.018 -0.028 0.09 -0.031 0.001 0.037 0.059 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 9 0.043 0.067 0.041 0.018 0.009 -0.007 -0.017 0.112 0.021 0.076 0.036 0.022 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 11 0.037 0.065 0.03 -0.022 0.004 -0.003 -0.0 0.1 -0.01 0.05 0.033 0.01 AIFS 5 AIFShera 17 0.011 0.027 -0.003 0.002 0.002 0.01 -0.049 0.067 -0.035 0.013 0.006 0.012 UWAtmosNVIDIA 6 DLESyMS2Sv1 13 0.026 0.046 0.002 0.001 0.008 0.018 -0.01 0.042 -0.021 0.062 0.008 0.039 scienceAI 7 ngcm 14 0.025 0.032 0.035 0.004 0.009 -0.027 0.016 0.049 0.007 0.006 0.034 0.015 scienceAI 7 zephyr 15 0.023 0.025 0.034 -0.009 0.002 0.007 0.019 0.061 0.017 -0.001 0.029 -0.014 scienceAI 7 findforecast 22 -0.013 -0.03 0.001 -0.019 -0.007 0.015 0.007 -0.004 -0.02 -0.033 -0.01 -0.038 SBUHybrid 8 HybridPPx 16 0.015 0.023 0.031 0.002 0.002 -0.023 -0.002 0.072 -0.047 0.059 -0.004 -0.006 SBUHybrid 8 HybridAC 19 0.009 0.001 0.029 0.01 0.025 -0.01 0.005 0.066 -0.049 0.042 -0.023 -0.018 JR 9 slowMamba 18 0.011 0.039 -0.011 0.016 -0.017 -0.058 -0.038 0.039 0.026 0.026 -0.004 0.001 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather 20 0.006 0.007 0.004 -0.002 -0.005 0.017 0.011 0.0 -0.002 0.005 -0.003 0.003 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather2 23 -0.014 -0.026 -0.004 -0.011 -0.017 0.015 0.005 -0.012 -0.041 -0.033 -0.021 -0.009
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.055 0.09 0.028 0.025 0.013 0.03 0.004 0.064 0.015 0.102 0.04 0.071 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 2 0.052 0.09 0.02 0.033 -0.007 0.04 0.001 0.054 0.038 0.107 0.028 0.069 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 8 0.029 0.05 0.008 0.007 0.0 0.011 -0.036 0.061 0.016 0.045 0.003 0.046 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 3 0.047 0.079 0.025 0.019 0.001 0.02 0.012 0.04 0.013 0.079 0.035 0.077 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 6 0.039 0.07 0.019 0.016 -0.005 0.016 0.002 0.032 0.009 0.071 0.032 0.071 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 9 0.021 0.037 0.009 0.018 -0.013 0.012 -0.001 0.031 -0.038 0.023 0.011 0.077 LP 3 LPM 4 0.045 0.08 0.016 0.015 0.003 0.026 -0.013 0.05 0.001 0.076 0.029 0.069 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 5 0.04 0.059 0.019 0.005 0.028 0.03 -0.005 0.062 -0.014 0.06 0.029 0.061 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 7 0.039 0.057 0.02 0.002 0.027 0.037 -0.007 0.063 -0.02 0.055 0.029 0.061 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 17 0.004 0.013 -0.012 -0.019 0.008 0.005 -0.038 0.03 -0.083 -0.0 0.002 0.05 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 10 0.018 0.037 0.002 0.006 -0.01 0.018 -0.012 0.05 -0.044 0.015 0.01 0.055 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 19 -0.004 -0.017 0.011 0.009 -0.011 0.015 -0.014 0.045 -0.091 -0.019 0.007 -0.022 AIFS 5 AIFShera 21 -0.006 0.004 -0.025 -0.002 -0.013 0.023 -0.058 0.032 -0.066 -0.025 -0.021 0.012 scienceAI 6 zephyr 11 0.017 0.021 0.016 0.007 0.002 0.009 0.004 0.045 0.006 0.007 0.009 -0.016 scienceAI 6 ngcm 12 0.015 0.021 0.016 0.006 -0.004 -0.008 0.003 0.038 -0.005 0.006 0.008 0.004 scienceAI 6 findforecast 23 -0.01 -0.024 0.0 -0.007 -0.001 0.013 0.005 -0.007 -0.015 -0.022 -0.005 -0.036 SBUHybrid 7 HybridPPx 13 0.015 0.027 0.017 -0.022 0.017 -0.024 -0.006 0.048 -0.043 0.036 0.013 -0.016 SBUHybrid 7 HybridAC 16 0.005 0.007 0.016 -0.022 0.005 -0.011 0.005 0.033 -0.057 0.025 -0.003 -0.047 UWAtmosNVIDIA 8 DLESyMS2Sv1 14 0.011 0.032 -0.022 -0.008 -0.005 0.008 -0.02 0.005 -0.036 0.042 -0.0 0.019 CliMA 9 CliMAWeather 15 0.008 0.011 0.002 0.001 -0.004 0.026 0.003 -0.002 -0.0 0.003 0.0 0.021 CliMA 9 CliMAWeather2 20 -0.005 -0.012 -0.0 -0.005 -0.012 0.026 0.005 -0.006 -0.015 -0.03 -0.013 0.018 IgnisNeuralis42 10 GCast42 18 0.003 0.015 -0.004 -0.006 -0.031 -0.002 -0.004 -0.001 0.002 0.015 -0.009 -0.012
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated on Jun 12, 2026
8 minute read
