This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 11 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 23rd April 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
MAM 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.084 0.131 0.067 0.029 0.017 0.02 0.018 0.112 0.045 0.126 0.079 0.095 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 2 0.073 0.118 0.053 0.035 -0.017 0.042 0.001 0.085 0.059 0.116 0.067 0.066 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 11 0.032 0.052 0.024 0.018 -0.001 -0.004 -0.038 0.07 0.005 0.047 0.027 0.035 LP 2 LPM 3 0.072 0.105 0.063 0.032 0.043 0.024 0.022 0.106 0.022 0.11 0.068 0.091 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 4 0.069 0.103 0.061 0.031 0.013 0.025 0.037 0.078 0.03 0.11 0.064 0.099 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 5 0.063 0.096 0.059 0.033 0.003 0.019 0.027 0.071 0.021 0.105 0.063 0.097 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 6 0.062 0.088 0.059 0.017 0.02 0.021 0.04 0.086 0.009 0.077 0.062 0.095 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 7 0.061 0.086 0.055 0.013 0.049 0.015 0.007 0.117 0.032 0.07 0.056 0.069 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 8 0.061 0.085 0.056 0.008 0.052 0.016 0.008 0.117 0.026 0.072 0.056 0.065 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 13 0.032 0.052 0.035 -0.002 0.037 -0.038 -0.013 0.1 -0.004 0.021 0.04 0.051 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 9 0.04 0.065 0.039 -0.021 0.018 -0.003 0.005 0.109 -0.009 0.066 0.039 0.008 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 10 0.037 0.052 0.048 0.007 0.014 -0.017 -0.021 0.126 0.003 0.065 0.034 0.007 AIFS 5 AIFShera 12 0.032 0.057 0.023 -0.008 0.008 0.003 -0.029 0.098 -0.033 0.054 0.023 0.021 scienceAI 6 ngcm 14 0.024 0.026 0.041 -0.001 0.011 -0.014 0.017 0.054 0.017 0.004 0.033 0.01 scienceAI 6 zephyr 15 0.022 0.019 0.04 -0.012 0.003 0.006 0.021 0.065 0.025 0.003 0.028 -0.017 scienceAI 6 findforecast 22 -0.017 -0.037 0.0 -0.025 -0.007 0.016 0.005 -0.005 -0.023 -0.045 -0.016 -0.038 UWAtmosNVIDIA 7 DLESyMS2Sv1 16 0.02 0.033 0.001 -0.004 0.01 0.015 -0.01 0.036 -0.025 0.053 0.006 0.03 SBUHybrid 8 HybridPPx 17 0.011 0.009 0.038 0.002 0.006 -0.018 0.005 0.079 -0.051 0.05 -0.012 -0.007 SBUHybrid 8 HybridAC 20 0.004 -0.01 0.032 0.006 0.028 -0.005 0.012 0.069 -0.049 0.033 -0.033 -0.018 JR 9 slowMamba 18 0.006 0.03 -0.009 0.014 -0.019 -0.056 -0.044 0.043 0.018 0.02 -0.004 -0.007 IgnisNeuralis42 10 GCast42 19 0.005 0.011 0.004 -0.021 -0.029 0.02 -0.002 0.001 -0.004 -0.001 -0.003 0.006
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.05 0.085 0.027 0.015 0.005 0.026 -0.001 0.067 0.014 0.09 0.038 0.056 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 2 0.045 0.08 0.019 0.027 -0.017 0.041 -0.004 0.052 0.03 0.092 0.025 0.051 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 10 0.022 0.039 0.007 0.006 -0.008 0.006 -0.045 0.061 0.013 0.027 -0.001 0.031 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 3 0.042 0.073 0.023 0.012 -0.004 0.021 0.005 0.041 0.015 0.07 0.03 0.063 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 7 0.035 0.064 0.016 0.012 -0.011 0.017 -0.004 0.033 0.011 0.065 0.026 0.055 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 8 0.022 0.041 0.011 0.005 -0.018 0.012 -0.009 0.037 -0.02 0.023 0.01 0.068 LP 3 LPM 4 0.041 0.073 0.015 0.011 0.002 0.027 -0.022 0.057 0.005 0.068 0.025 0.051 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 5 0.038 0.059 0.017 0.003 0.024 0.025 -0.01 0.067 0.003 0.061 0.018 0.045 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 6 0.038 0.057 0.018 -0.001 0.023 0.03 -0.011 0.069 -0.003 0.058 0.019 0.046 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 15 0.007 0.022 -0.01 -0.019 0.01 -0.014 -0.042 0.04 -0.046 0.011 -0.002 0.037 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 9 0.022 0.038 0.01 0.002 -0.001 0.021 -0.005 0.064 -0.032 0.016 0.009 0.05 AIFS 5 AIFShera 13 0.011 0.024 -0.001 0.001 -0.008 0.015 -0.029 0.067 -0.04 -0.014 -0.011 0.023 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 21 -0.015 -0.041 0.013 0.006 -0.009 0.007 -0.013 0.055 -0.105 -0.045 -0.002 -0.051 scienceAI 6 ngcm 11 0.011 0.014 0.016 -0.007 -0.007 -0.004 0.004 0.04 -0.006 0.001 0.006 -0.014 scienceAI 6 zephyr 12 0.011 0.011 0.015 -0.007 -0.003 0.008 0.001 0.045 0.002 -0.001 0.003 -0.039 scienceAI 6 findforecast 22 -0.017 -0.035 -0.003 -0.021 -0.004 0.018 0.011 -0.011 -0.026 -0.034 -0.012 -0.044 SBUHybrid 7 HybridPPx 14 0.01 0.017 0.016 -0.025 0.014 -0.017 -0.004 0.052 -0.037 0.027 0.003 -0.03 SBUHybrid 7 HybridAC 19 0.002 0.003 0.015 -0.025 0.001 -0.008 0.01 0.036 -0.041 0.02 -0.009 -0.056 IgnisNeuralis42 8 GCast42 16 0.004 0.016 -0.003 -0.013 -0.036 -0.001 0.004 -0.01 0.002 0.014 -0.003 -0.001 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 17 0.004 0.021 -0.026 -0.022 -0.005 0.006 -0.023 0.007 -0.027 0.032 -0.012 -0.015 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather 18 0.003 0.004 -0.002 -0.009 -0.006 0.03 -0.003 -0.006 -0.007 -0.003 -0.005 0.013 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather2 20 -0.011 -0.021 -0.005 -0.018 -0.014 0.031 -0.004 -0.012 -0.022 -0.04 -0.021 0.007
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
