This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 7 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 25th September 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.071 0.108 0.038 0.061 0.035 0.018 0.01 0.052 0.075 0.068 0.074 0.128 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.065 0.098 0.038 0.053 0.032 0.023 0.013 0.048 0.064 0.09 0.067 0.121 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 9 0.03 0.029 0.026 0.043 0.03 0.017 0.002 0.05 -0.0 -0.044 0.046 0.069 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 3 0.058 0.103 0.023 0.024 0.017 -0.003 -0.0 0.058 0.091 0.102 0.046 0.052 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 4 0.058 0.116 0.015 0.017 -0.009 -0.008 0.009 0.036 0.122 0.104 0.038 0.072 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 11 0.001 0.022 -0.007 -0.016 0.001 -0.069 0.012 0.022 0.016 -0.006 0.015 -0.036 LP 3 LPM 5 0.045 0.062 0.034 0.038 0.033 -0.002 -0.006 0.047 0.049 0.029 0.062 0.065 AIFS 4 AIFShera 6 0.04 0.048 0.035 0.023 0.039 0.002 0.019 0.042 0.068 0.026 0.051 0.042 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 7 0.038 0.063 0.021 0.01 0.022 -0.014 0.013 0.037 0.049 0.045 0.039 0.026 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 8 0.03 0.047 0.019 0.018 0.027 -0.006 0.005 0.026 0.042 0.022 0.039 0.033 scienceAI 5 findforecast 10 0.001 0.001 -0.008 0.025 -0.001 0.01 -0.016 0.032 -0.006 -0.013 -0.018 0.039 scienceAI 5 zephyr 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguPlusPlus 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguParametricPrediction 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguS2SEasyUQ 34 -1.074 -1.185 -0.987 -1.039 -0.866 -0.931 -1.017 -0.992 -1.242 -1.2 -0.992 -1.242 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 16 -0.12 -0.14 -0.153 -0.117 -0.067 -0.015 -0.104 -0.108 -0.148 -0.192 -0.135 -0.098 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 21 -0.31 -0.359 -0.323 -0.387 -0.262 -0.145 -0.286 -0.149 -0.338 -0.396 -0.411 -0.449 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 17 -0.177 -0.197 -0.257 -0.019 -0.134 -0.015 -0.201 -0.126 -0.097 -0.312 -0.315 -0.131 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 19 -0.227 -0.326 -0.18 -0.096 -0.061 -0.167 -0.146 -0.137 -0.337 -0.432 -0.242 -0.223 WindBorne 9 WeatherMesh 18 -0.182 -0.16 -0.139 -0.311 -0.129 -0.482 -0.2 -0.202 -0.202 -0.164 -0.105 -0.24 HAPPY 10 AZN 20 -0.233 -0.251 -0.245 -0.491 -0.295 0.084 -0.098 -0.324 -0.257 -0.191 -0.281 -0.515
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.054 0.088 0.013 0.061 0.022 0.033 -0.015 0.058 0.061 0.065 0.038 0.101 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.05 0.082 0.015 0.047 0.022 0.037 -0.017 0.051 0.051 0.08 0.039 0.093 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 7 0.017 0.023 -0.004 0.05 0.017 0.021 -0.031 0.055 0.006 -0.034 0.006 0.055 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 3 0.043 0.086 0.009 0.008 0.002 0.008 -0.0 0.041 0.065 0.102 0.024 0.047 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 4 0.038 0.071 0.009 0.022 0.0 0.019 -0.005 0.051 0.039 0.065 0.018 0.042 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 9 0.004 0.019 0.005 -0.01 0.005 -0.054 0.013 0.04 0.011 -0.002 0.006 -0.04 LP 3 LPM 5 0.028 0.046 0.004 0.018 0.022 0.025 -0.033 0.054 0.024 0.018 0.027 0.04 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.022 0.043 0.0 -0.004 0.009 0.016 -0.016 0.051 0.054 0.015 0.0 0.015 AIFS 4 AIFShera 8 0.015 0.024 0.001 -0.005 0.014 0.017 -0.006 0.024 0.052 0.013 -0.003 0.027 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 15 -0.004 -0.017 -0.003 -0.004 0.014 0.025 -0.014 0.034 0.008 -0.084 -0.007 0.014 KITKangu 5 KanguPlusPlus 10 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguParametricPrediction 10 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 zephyr 10 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 10 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 findforecast 14 -0.004 -0.009 -0.006 0.025 0.012 0.004 -0.001 0.032 -0.022 -0.003 -0.021 0.026 KITKangu 5 KanguS2SEasyUQ 32 -1.124 -1.244 -1.05 -1.073 -0.91 -0.99 -0.999 -1.143 -1.171 -1.411 -1.032 -1.132 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 16 -0.156 -0.189 -0.212 -0.12 -0.065 -0.022 -0.17 -0.128 -0.18 -0.256 -0.193 -0.163 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 20 -0.35 -0.403 -0.371 -0.397 -0.287 -0.225 -0.258 -0.154 -0.35 -0.478 -0.483 -0.47 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 17 -0.186 -0.251 -0.243 0.029 -0.09 0.08 -0.128 -0.2 -0.125 -0.32 -0.297 -0.122 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 18 -0.243 -0.371 -0.19 -0.066 -0.051 -0.123 -0.117 -0.185 -0.374 -0.478 -0.228 -0.238 HAPPY 9 AZN 19 -0.261 -0.318 -0.232 -0.604 -0.25 0.007 -0.182 -0.322 -0.429 -0.239 -0.205 -0.544 WindBorne 10 WeatherMesh 21 -0.352 -0.364 -0.193 -0.64 -0.271 -0.732 -0.243 -0.359 -0.369 -0.239 -0.222 -0.628
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
