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Impact of starting date and lead time

Experiments for Storm Xaver are initialized from 3 dates: 1, 2 and 3 December 2013. The major events related to the storm (high precipitation, wind gusts) happened on 5 December. Consequently, forecast lead times of 96–120 hours, 72–96 hours, 48–72 hours are studied, respectively.

The PDF documents below are prepared for 9 variables from the T255L91 run initialized from ERA-Interim: mean sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature, 24-hour precipitation, 3-hourly 10-meter wind gust, 850 hPa temperature, 700 hPa relative humidity, 500 hPa geopotential, 250 hPa and 100 hPa wind fields. The figures of experiments are organized in 3 columns according to the 3 starting dates and 9 rows for the 3-hourly forecast outputs between 00 UTC on 5 and 00 UTC on 6 December. The only exception is the precipitation where the daily amounts are located in one row. Both the corresponding ERA-Interim and ERA5 fields are displayed as reference (please note that the ERA-Interim re-analyses are available with 6-hour frequency).

Click on the PDF documents to open them and to see the individual pictures (note that most documents have 2 pages).

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Mean sea level pressure

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_mslp_table.pdf
height	250

2-meter temperature

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_t2_table.pdf
height	250

24-hour precipitation

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_p_table.pdf
height	250

3-hourly 10-meter wind gust

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_gust_table.pdf
height	250

Temperature at 850 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_t850_table.pdf
height	250

Relative humidity at 700 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_q700_table.pdf
height	250

Geopotential at 500 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_z500_table.pdf
height	250

Wind field at 250 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_u250_table.pdf
height	250

Wind field at 100 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_startdate_u100_table.pdf
height	250

Impact of initial condition

Experiments for storm Xaver are initialized from ERA-Interim and ERA5 re-analysis datasets on T255L91 resolution for 3 December 2013. The major events related to the storm (high precipitation, wind gusts) happened on 5 December. So the 48–72 hours forecast lead times are shown here.

First, we can make an inter-comparison between the initial conditions provided by ERA-Interim and ERA5 on the native ERA-Interim resolution (T255L91, approximately 80 km grid distance and 91 vertical levels). The figures are available in PNG format for 7 variables: soil temperature on level 2, surface pressure, model orography and temperature, specific humidity, wind field, cloud cover on model levels. The PNG documents are structured in 2 left panels for the outputs of the forecasts initialized from ERA-Interim and ERA5, while the difference between the two fields is displayed in the right panel.

Click on the PNG documents to open them and to see the individual pictures.

Soil temperature on level 2

View file

name	Xaver_stl2_0_ERAI-ERA5_20131203+0.png
height	250

Surface pressure

View file

name	Xaver_lnsp_1_ERAI-ERA5_20131203+0.png
height	250

Model orography

View file

name	Xaver_z_any_ERAI-ERA5_20131203+0.png
height	250

Temperature at model level 91

View file

name	Xaver_t_91_ERAI-ERA5_20131203+0.png
height	250

Specific humidity at model level 91

View file

name	Xaver_q_91_ERAI-ERA5_20131203+0.png
height	250

Wind field at model level 91

View file

name	Xaver_u_91_ERAI-ERA5_20131203+0.png
height	250

Cloud cover at model level 91

View file

name	Xaver_cc_91_ERAI-ERA5_20131203+0.png
height	250

The PDF documents below are prepared to check the forecast results for 9 variables from the T255L91 run initialized on 3 December 2013: mean sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature, 24-hour precipitation, 3-hourly 10-meter wind gust, 850 hPa temperature, 700 hPa relative humidity, 500 hPa geopotential, 250 hPa and 100 hPa wind fields. The figures of experiments are organized in 2 columns according to the 2 initial conditions and 9 rows for the 3-hourly forecast outputs between 00 UTC on 5 and 00 UTC on 6 December. The only exception is the precipitation where the daily amounts are located in one row. Both the corresponding ERA-Interim and ERA5 fields are displayed as reference (please note that the ERA-Interim re-analyses are available with 6-hour frequency).

Click on the PDF documents to open them and to see the individual pictures (note that most documents have 2 pages).

Mean sea level pressure

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_mslp_table.pdf
height	250

2-meter temperature

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_t2_table.pdf
height	250

24-hour precipitation

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_p_table.pdf
height	250

3-hourly 10-meter wind gust

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_gust_table.pdf
height	250

Temperature at 850 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_t850_table.pdf
height	250

Relative humidity at 700 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_q700_table.pdf
height	250

Geopotential at 500 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_z500_table.pdf
height	250

Wind field at 250 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_u250_table.pdf
height	250

Wind field at 100 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_initial_condition_u100_table.pdf
height	250

Impact of horizontal resolution

Experiments for Storm Xaver are conducted on 3 resolutions: T255L91, T639L137 and T1279L137 (approximately 80, 32, 16 km grid distance with 91, 137 and 137 vertical levels, respectively). The forecasts are initialized from ERA-Interim on 3 December 2013 and the major events related to the storm (high precipitation, wind gusts) happened on 5 December. So the 48–72 hours forecast lead times are studied.

The PDF documents below are prepared for 9 variables: mean sea level pressure, 2-meter temperature, 24-hour precipitation, 3-hourly 10-meter wind gust, 850 hPa temperature, 700 hPa relative humidity, 500 hPa geopotential, 250 hPa and 100 hPa wind fields. The figures of experiments are organized in 3 columns according to the 3 resolutions and 9 rows for the 3-hourly forecast outputs between 00 UTC on 5 and 00 UTC on 6 December. The only exception is the precipitation where the daily amounts are located in one row. Both the corresponding ERA-Interim and ERA5 fields are displayed as reference (please note that the ERA-Interim re-analyses are available with 6-hour frequency).

Click on the PDF documents to open them and to see the individual pictures (note that most documents have 2 pages).

Mean sea level pressure

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_mslp_table.pdf
height	250

2-meter temperature

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_t2_table.pdf
height	250

24-hour precipitation

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_p_table.pdf
height	250

3-hourly 10-meter wind gust

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_gust_table.pdf
height	250

Temperature at 850 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_t850_table.pdf
height	250

Relative humidity at 700 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_q700_table.pdf
height	250

Geopotential at 500 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_z500_table.pdf
height	250

Wind field at 250 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_u250_table.pdf
height	250

Wind field at 100 hPa

View file

name	Xaver_resolution_u100_table.pdf
height	250

Info

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Here only a selection of the prepared figures is available. For all the pictures, please visit the complete <a href="http://download.ecmwf.int/test-data/openifs/reference_casestudies/figs/Xaver/png-ps" target="_blank">gallery</a>.

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Old Version 17

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Impact of starting date and lead time

Impact of initial condition

Impact of horizontal resolution

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Old Version 17

New Version 18

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Impact of starting date and lead time

Impact of initial condition

Impact of horizontal resolution