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• Medium range ensemble output is shown for individual ensemble members for a few parameters.  More importantly, ensemble output showing a selection of individual and combined parameters is presented in a probabilistic or multi-valued format.  The medium range ensemble consists of 50 members plus one control member.  Charts available:
  • Forecast charts (surface and upper air) - showing a selection of individual and combined parameters, to 15days forecast lead-time.
    • Postage stamp charts - to show the output of all ensemble members for a few parameters at several forecast lead-times. (Example chart).
    • Mean and Spread charts - to place the uncertainty measured by the standard deviation of the members of the latest ensemble into the context of recent uncertainty in the ensemble forecasts.  (Example chart).
    • Probability charts - to show probabilities of events exceeding a given threshold (e.g. rainfall > 5mm/day).  (Example chart).
    • Extreme Forecast Index charts (including clickable multiparameter multi-parameter charts) - to highlight areas where forecast values depart significantly from M-climate. (Example chart).
    • Plumes, Meteograms, EFI-CDF, Vertical Profiles - to give probabilistic interpretation of the ensemble for specific locations with optional M-climate data to emphasize departure from the re-forecast climatology.   
    • Cluster charts - to distil ensemble member output into groups exhibiting similar large-scale patterns enabling assessment of most likely results (i.e. possible 'weather scenarios').  (Example chart).
    • Tropical cyclone activity charts (including genesis) - to indicate tropical cyclone threats worldwide. (Example chart).

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