Medium-range output

A wide range of medium range (Day0-Day15) ensemble products are available.  Users can observe the variation among ensemble member forecasts, and consistency with previous ensemble solutions.  Output data is presented in many ways allowing assessment the probability of different forecast scenarios.  In turn, this allows the forecaster to provide customers with tailored forecasts.  These may be detailed (especially at shorter lead-times), but also with information on the uncertainty of that forecast.

Ensemble output shows:

  • individual ensemble members with post-processing highlighting similarities and/or differences between members.  
  • meteograms and plumes for user-selected locations.
  • probabilities of track and intensity of tropical cyclone and extra-tropical cyclones.
  • probabilities of parameters exceeding a threshold (e.g. temperature, gusts, snowfall).
  • probabilities relating to precipitation type.