Page History

...

The output is rather different from the shorter period output of medium of medium range ensemble products.  It provides a more general overview of the forecast up to Day46. It consists of an ensemble of 100 members plus one control member and is run every day based only upon 00UTC data.

Output focuses mainly on the week-to-week changes in the weather rather than attempting to give unsupportable detail on individual days.  Output is mostly in the form of anomalies relative to ER-M-climate and is mainly shown as 7-day means for calendar weeks Monday-Sunday.   Specialised products for the extended range also include information on potential tropical cyclone activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the coming month.

Products are six charts of the 7 day (weekly) means of the forecast daily ensemble means (including re-forecast products).  Extended range 7-day mean forecast chart products extend to day46.  

Availability

Extended range output is available:

• at 20:00 UTC (Daily) for forecast products.
• at 21:00 UTC (Mondays and Thursdays) for re-forecasts.

Forecast time ranges

Graphical Products

For each point of the chart the atmospheric variables (e.g. 2m temperature, surface temperature, total precipitation, mean sea level pressure) have been are averaged values over week-long periods.   Extended range 7-day mean forecast chart products extend to day46.  

Additional Sources of Information

(Note: In older material there may be references to issues that have subsequently been addressed)

• Currently Nil.

...

More information on products available from the atmospheric model ensemble, extended forecast (Set VI - ENS extended) are available on the ECMWF website.