The case study will look at one of several severe wind-storms that hit Europe in late 2013 (see handout of ECMWF article by Hewson et al, ECMWF Newsletter 139).

• On the 28th October 2013 a small, severe wind-storm named St Jude in the UK, hit the UK & north-western Europe.
• A total of 19 people were killed across Europe, 5 in the UK.
• The return period of the event based on wind-gust observations show the 10yr return period was exceeded along the North Sea coast.

• From the 23rd October, the ECMWF forecast predicted a greater than 70% probability of a severe wind event (greater than 60kt, 31m/s, at 1km) over southern England. A signal for the storm was evident from the 21st October.
• On the 24th October, the UK MetOffice issued an amber alert for wind-speed across southern England placing the potential impact in the highest category.
  
  
• The cyclone first appeared as a cold front wave, over the Atlantic, late on 25th October.
• It deepened and moved rapidly east then northeast, with the storm centre reaching southern Sweden late afternoon on the 28th.
• The most rapid deepening occurred between 06-12UTC on the 28th when the strongest wind gusts were observed.