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For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the row labelled 'Oper forecast' as shown above.

oper_rmse.mv                                   : this plots the root-mean-square-error growth curves for the operational HRES forecast for the different lead times.

oper_1x1.mv & oper_2x2.mv    : these work in a similar way to the same icons used in the previous task where parameters from a single lead time can be plotted.

oper_to_an_runs.mv                         : this plots the same parameter from the different forecasts for the same verifying time. Use this to understand how the forecasts differed, particularly for the later forecasts closer to the event.

oper_to_an_diff.mv                           : this plots a single parameter as a difference between the operational HIRES HRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors from the different lead times.

Parameters & map appearance. These macros have the same choice of parameters to plot and same choice of mapType, either the Atlantic sector or over Europe.

Task 1: Forecast error

Root-mean square error curves are often used to determine forecast error by comparing with the analysis.

In this task, all 4 forecast dates will be used.

Using the oper_rmse.mv icon, right-click, select 'Edit' and plot the RMSE curves for MSLP (mean-sea-level pressure) & wgust10 (10m wind gust)

Each team should look at the forecast from all 4 starting dates and each team member should see the RMSE curves.

Start by looking at the RMS error curves for the 4 different starting dates using MSLP (mean-sea-level pressure) and wind parameters (wind gust at 10m: WGUST10 and wind-speed at 850hPa : SPEED850) and the two geographical regions. Use the oper_rmse.mv icon for this.

As a team, discuss what plots & parameters to use to address the questions above given what you see in the error growth curves.

Then look at the difference between forecast and analysis to understand the error in the forecast, particularly the starting formation and final error.

Team members can look at particular dates and choose particular variables for team discussion.