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Task 1: Forecast error

Root-mean square error curves are often used to determine forecast error by comparing with the analysis.

In this task, all 4 forecast dates will be used.

Using the oper_rmse.mv icon, right-click, select 'Edit' and plot the RMSE curves for MSLP (mean-sea-level pressure) & wgust10 (10m wind gust).

Repeat for both geographical regions: mapType=0 and mapType=1.

Each team should look at the forecast from all 4 starting dates and each team member should see the RMSE curves.Start by looking at the RMS error curves for the 4 different starting dates using MSLP (mean-sea-level pressure) and wind parameters (wind gust at 10m: WGUST10 and wind-speed at 850hPa : SPEED850) and the two geographical regions. Use the oper_rmse.mv icon for this.

As a team, discuss what plots & parameters to use to address the questions above given what you see in the error growth curves.

Then look at the difference between forecast and analysis to understand the error in the forecast, particularly the starting formation and final error.

Team members can look at particular dates and choose particular variables for team discussion.