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Info
titlePrinting

If hardcopy prints are desired please use the printer at the rear of the classroom and only print if necessary. The printer name is 'ps_classroom'.

St Jude wind-storm highlights

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Ensemble exercise tasks

This exercise comprises has more tasks than the previous ones.

Visualising ensemble exercises forecasts can be done in various ways. During this exercise, in order to understand the errors and uncertainties in the forecast, we will use a number of visualisation techniques.

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Panel
THIS NEEDS IMPROVING
  1. Visualise How does the ensemble mean - how does it compare to the HRES forecast and analysis?
  2. Note how the ensemble spread develops - are there any clusters of forecasts developing?
  3. In the Visualize stamp map - , are there any members that provide a better forecast? Visualize spaghetti map - see how members spread over the duration of the forecast. How does the spread grow?Is it possible to see why these forecasts are better?

Getting started

Note

Task 1: RMSE "plumes"

 

 

 

Suggested plots:

  • 4 per frame: analysis, ensemble mean, spread and 1 other.
  • spaghetti plots (multiple plots per frame)
  • stamp plots.
  • Observations of wind gust + analysis (faked): 1 day only.

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