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For these exercises please use the Metview icons in the row labelled 'ENS'. ens_rmse.mv : this is similar to the oper_rmse.mv in the previous exercise. It will plot the root-mean-square-error growth for the ensemble forecasts. ens_to_an.mv : this will plot (a) the mean of the ensemble forecast, (b) the ensemble spread, (c) the HRES deterministic forecast and (d) the analysis for the same date. stamp.mv : this plots all of the ensemble forecasts for a particular field and lead time. Each forecast is shown in a stamp sized map. Very useful for a quick visual inspection of each ensemble forecast. stamp_diff.mv : similar to stamp.mv except that for each forecast it plots a difference map from the analysis. Very useful for quick visual inspection of the forecast differences of each ensemble forecast. ens_to_an_runs_spag.mv : this plots a 'spaghetti map' for a given parameter for the ensemble forecasts compared to the analysis. Another way of visualizing ensemble spread.
Additional plots for further analysis:
ens_1x1.mv : this plots a single map of a single ensemble member, the mean or the spread. pf_to_cf_diff.mv : this useful macro allows two individual ensemble forecasts to be compared to the control forecast. As well as plotting the forecasts from the members, it also shows a difference map for each. |
Getting started
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Please refer to the handout showing the storm tracks labelled 'ens_oper' during this exercise. It is provided for reference and may assist interpreting the plots. Each page shows 4 plots, one for each starting forecast lead time. The position of the symbols is the storm centre valid for 28th Oct 2013 at 12Z. The colour of the symbols is the central pressure. The actual track of the storm from the analysis is show as the red curve with the position at 28th 12Z highlighted as the hour glass symbol. The control forecast for the ensemble is shown as the green curve and square symbol. The lines show the 12hr track of the storm; 6hrs either side of the symbol. |
Task 1: RMSE "plumes"
This is similar to task 1 in exercise 2, except now the RMSE curves for all the ensemble members from a particular forecast will be plotted. All 4 forecast dates are shown.
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