...
- Choose an odd & even ensemble member. For different forecast steps, pair (use the stamp plots). Use the appropriate icon to compute the difference of each member the members from the ensemble control forecast and then subtract those differences. (i.e. centre the differences about the control forecast)..
- Study the development of these differences using the MSLP and wind fields. If the error growth is linear the differences will be the same but of opposite sign. Non-linearity will result in different patterns in the difference maps.What is the result? Do you get zero? If not why not? Use Z200 & Z500? MSLP?
- Repeat looking at one of the other forecasts. How does it vary between the different forecasts?
If time:
- Plot PV at 330K. What are the differences between the forecast? Upper tropospheric differences played a role in the development of this shallow fast moving cyclone.
Final remarks
Further reading
For more information on the stochastic physics scheme in (Open)IFS, see the article:
...