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For this task, use the metview icons in the row labelled 'Analysis'
an_1x1.mv : this will plot a selection of parameters overlaid on one plot. an_2x2.mv : this will plot a selection of parameters four plots to a page (two by two). |
Getting started
Task 1: Mean-sea-level pressure & wind gust
Right-click the mouse button on the 'an_1x1.mv' icon and select the 'Visualise' menu item (see figure right)
After a few seconds, this will generate a map showing two parameters: mean-sea-level pressure (MSLP) and 3hrly max wind-gust at 10m (wgust10).
In the plot window, use the play button in the animation controls 
to animate the map and follow the development and track of the storm.
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Available plot types
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For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the row labelled 'HRES forecast' as shown above. hres_rmse.mv : this plots the root-mean-square-error growth curves for the operational HRES forecast for the different lead times.
hres_to_an_runs.mv : this plots the same parameter from the different forecasts for the same verifying time. Use this to understand how the forecasts differed, particularly for the later forecasts closer to the event. hres_to_an_diff.mv : this plots a single parameter as a difference between the operational HRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors from the different lead times.
Parameters & map appearance. These macros have the same choice of parameters to plot and same choice of |
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Available plot types
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For these exercises please use the Metview icons in the row labelled 'ENS'. ens_rmse.mv : this is similar to the oper_rmse.mv in the previous exercise. It will plot the root-mean-square-error growth for the ensemble forecasts. ens_to_an.mv : this will plot (a) the mean of the ensemble forecast, (b) the ensemble spread, (c) the HRES deterministic forecast and (d) the analysis for the same date. ens_to_an_runs_spag.mv : this plots a 'spaghetti map' for a given parameter for the ensemble forecasts compared to the analysis. Another way of visualizing ensemble spread. stamp.mv : this plots all of the ensemble forecasts for a particular field and lead time. Each forecast is shown in a stamp sized map. Very useful for a quick visual inspection of each ensemble forecast. stamp_diff.mv : similar to stamp.mv except that for each forecast it plots a difference map from the analysis. Very useful for quick visual inspection of the forecast differences of each ensemble forecast.
Additional plots for further analysis:
pf_to_cf_diff.mv : this useful macro allows two individual ensemble forecasts to be compared to the control forecast. As well as plotting the forecasts from the members, it also shows a difference map for each. ens_to_an_diff.mv : this will plot the difference between an ensemble forecast member and the analysis for a given parameter. |
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Please refer to the handout showing the storm tracks labelled 'ens_oper' during this exercise. It is provided for reference and may assist interpreting the plots. Each page shows 4 plots, one for each starting forecast lead time. The position of the symbols represents the centre of the storm valid 28th Oct 2013 12UTC. The colour of the symbols is the central pressure. The actual track of the storm from the analysis is shown as the red curve with the position at 28th 12Z highlighted as the hour glass symbol. The HRES forecast for the ensemble is shown as the green curve and square symbol. The lines show the 12hr track of the storm; 6hrs either side of the symbol. Note the propagation speed and direction of the storm tracks. The plot also shows the centres of the barotropic low to the North. Q. What can be deduced about the forecast from these plots?
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- Explore the plumes from other variables.
- Do you see the same amount of spread in RMSE from other pressure levels higher in the atmosphere?
Task 2: Ensemble spread
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