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Wind gusts: 24-hour maximum wind gusts on 24 January for a 0.25x0.25 box around Mace Head, Sweden Ireland (53.3N, 9.9W).
2.2 Analyses
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3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
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The plot below shows the assimilation of the Valentia radiosonde from 24 January 00UTC. Observation (black), first guess (blue) and analysis (red).
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event (see Section 2.1 for definition)
Observations and analysis for the event
Note that we currently have problems to decode the wind gust observations from Ireland.
Control forecast
DestinE
AIFS deterministic
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Forecast Evolution plot for the event (see Section 2.1)
While all forecasts had an ensemble mean above the model climate mean, the signal for the event strengthen gradually from 18 January and onwards. From 22 January 00UTC all members were above the model climate maximum (black triangle).
Legend:
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
ENS distribution - blue
ENS m-climate - cyan
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The plots below show cyclone feature plots for minimum surface pressure valid 24 January 00UTC from different initial times.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
The plots below show the weekly average ensemble mean of z500 valid 20-26 December. The forecast from 13 January gave some indications of the through over Eastern Atlantic.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good medium-range signal for the event
- Too strong mean wind and wind gusts in IFS?
6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases
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