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•  Decide on forecasts for workshop: resolution, start date(s) and forecast length
•   Run HRES & ensemble forecasts
•  Book accommodation
•  Check for observations we might have in the archive for HYMEX that could be used

Forecasts

T1279 HRES

Ensemble

1. T1279 + analyses : OK

2. Ensemble (size & res to be confirmed) : OK, we need also to check if the lower res ensemble proposes 2 distinct scenarios

3. Sensitivity run with ensemble, varying SST?  We can try, to see if it impacts the motion of Nadine. Surface fluxes may also have an influence on the motion of Nadine. Switching of deep convection ? Maybe too radical ? Is it possible to do a sensitivity to the resolution ? The interaction between Nadine and the cutoff seems to be impacted by the resolution.

4. Uncertainty runs: (a) EDA/SV/SPPT/SKEB; (b) EDA/SV; (c) SPPT/SKEB : Will we do class ensembles ?

Plots

PCA in Metview - speak to Linus (he says he has some Fortran code). Or could use R

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Plots that summarize the situation, focused on the study of Nadine and the cutoff (horizontal maps and vertical cross sections) and maybe a plot of the rainfall over France.

From Frédéric: (15/Mar)

For the ensemble I wonder if we will see the same bifurcation in the scenarios than in the hires. It seems that for this specific case the lower resolution run was better than the hires. We need to see the results of the ensembles with low res to see if it matches what the operational ensemble proposed at the time.

(note: we will be running the ensemble at operational resolution)

For the ensemble I wonder if we will see the same bifurcation in the scenarios than in the hires. It seems that for this specific case the lower resolution run was better than the hires. We need to see the results of the ensembles with low res to see if it matches what the operational ensemble proposed at the time.

Tubing is not compulsory if you have problems finding the code for that. If we do the same as last year this will be perfect. Maybe we can try just to add the PCA of the 500height in Metview as a bonus for this workshop. I'll ask a colleague about clustering in R. If it it easy to do we can add it as a bonus too. Don't bother doing it in Metview.

Notes from Frédéric: (9/Feb)

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