Section |
---|
Column |
---|
IntroductionIn these exercises we will look at a case study of a severe storm using a forecast ensemble. During the course of the exercise, we will explore the scientific rationale for using ensembles, how they are constructed and how ensemble forecasts can be visualised. A key question is how uncertainty from the initial data and the model parametrizations impact the forecast. You will start by studying the evolution of the ECMWF analyses and forecasts for this event. You will then run your own OpenIFS forecast for a single ensemble member at lower resolutions and work in group to study the OpenIFS ensemble forecasts. | Column |
---|
| Panel |
---|
| | Table of Contents |
---|
maxLevel | 1 Note |
---|
| In practise many cases are aggregated in order to evaluate the forecast behaviour of the ensemble. However, it is always useful to complement such assessments with case studies of extreme events, like the one in this exercise, to get a more complete picture of IFS performance and identify weaker aspects that need further exploration. |
|
Recap
ECMWF operational forecasts consist of:
...