This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 4th September 14th August 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDUAIFS | 1 | FengshunAdjustAIFShera | 1 | 0.072087 | 0.141108 | 0.028083 | -0.001059- | 0.013044 | -0.033024 | 0.023092 | -0.029028 | 0.13055 | 0.1057 | 0.064147 | 0.114061 | | CMAandFDUAIFS | 1 | FengshunHybridAIFSgaia | 3 | 0.068081 | 0.122133 | 0.03605 | -0.00208 | 0.013034 | -0.013024 | 0.019091 | -0.041074 | -0.06603 | 0.096139 | 0.076156 | 0.092035 | | CMAandFDUAIFS | 1 | FengshunAIFSthalassa | 106 | 0.019075 | 0.049129 | 0.001037 | -0.026127 | 0.011029 | -0.04605 | 0.01039 | -0.008046 | -0.024113- | 0.002128 | 0.056129 | 0.031061 | | MicroEnsembleCMAandFDU | 2 | MicroDuetFengshunAdjust | 2 | 0.072085 | 0.11171 | 0.046015 | -0.033073 | 0.028005 | -0.015022 | 0.049063 | -0.032024 | 0.057095 | 0.069054 | 0.078113 | 0.117053 | | MicroEnsembleCMAandFDU | 2 | StillLearningFengshunHybrid | 47 | 0.068064 | 0.103125 | 0.048002 | -0.027047 | 0.023046 | -0.007021 | 0.058037 | -0.026 | -0.052064 | 0.095107 | 0.071122 | -0.113023 | | MicroEnsembleCMAandFDU | 2 | HuracanFengshun | 910 | 0.029035 | 0.031086 | -0.035006 | -0.013082 | 0.013048 | -0.003041 | 0.034066 | -0.027041 | -0.024008- | 0.03203 | 0.049083 | 0.047104 | | LPMicroEnsemble | 3 | LPMMicroDuet | 54 | 0.053077 | 0.074108 | 0.048049 | -0.043022 | 0.02032 | -0.015065 | 0.022105 | -0.042002 | -0.04019 | 0.026063 | 0.071109 | 0.068092 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 43 | AIFSgaiaStillLearning | 65 | 0.047077 | 0.073102 | 0.043058 | -0.013009 | 0.01904 | -0.03064 | 0.053119 | -0.004 | -0.041002 | 0.053056 | 0.072113 | -0.014082 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 43 | AIFSheraHuracan | 79 | 0.045047 | 0.059044 | 0.04706 | -0.014045 | 0.02102 | -0.003069 | 0.026104 | -0.004005 | -0.05609 | -0.022015 | 0.08099 | 0.03504 | | AIFSLP | 4 | AIFSthalassaLPM | 8 | 0.036062 | 0.057083 | 0.03061 | -0.034014 | 0.023024 | -0.022017 | 0.013087 | -0.003019 | 0.019032 | 0.023021 | 0.067092 | -0.008021 | | scienceAIKITKangu | 5 | findforecastKanguPlusPlus | 11 | 0.0030 | -0.0 | -0.0060 | -0.0010 | 0.0010 | 0.0120 | -0.010 | 0.010 | -0.0020 | -0.0020 | 0.0040 | -0.0020 | | scienceAIKITKangu | 5 | zephyrKanguParametricPrediction | 1211 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | | scienceAI | 5 | ngcmfindforecast | 1211 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | | KITKanguscienceAI | 65 | KanguPlusPluszephyr | 1211 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | | KITKanguscienceAI | 65 | KanguParametricPredictionngcm | 1211 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | | KITKangu | 65 | KanguS2SEasyUQ | 3539 | -1.306235 | -1.41534 | -1.228045 | -1.346357 | -1.062094 | -1.168265 | -1.159194 | -10.208876 | -1.46493 | -1.342446 | -1.225178 | -1.72673 | | CliMA | 7 | CliMAWeather2CliMAWeather | 16 | -0.13504 | -0.143039 | -0.164052 | -0.15724 | -0.113037- | 0.02063 | -0.098011 | -0.161087 | -0.151 | -0.189024 | -0.149019 | -0.096137 | | CliMA | 7 | CliMAWeatherCliMAWeather2 | 17 | -0.15904 | -0.194041 | -0.157049 | -0.265238 | -0.122039- | 0.043068 | -0.127008 | -0.172086 | -0.208159 | -0.228025 | -0.17017 | -0.197129 | | WindBorne | 8 | WeatherMesh | 18 | -0.196125 | -0.161082 | -0.206 | -0.295259 | -0.192153 | -0.36132 | -0.2202 | -0.223187 | -0.18514 | -0.189184 | -0.202141 | -0.205358 | | FengWuW2S | 9 | FengWu2 | 19 | -0.22326 | -0.176135 | -0.367434 | -0.084255 | -0.262471 | -0.08725 | -0.326732 | -0.119042 | -0.088124 | -0.3452 | -0.443491 | -0.214126 | | FengWuW2S | 9 | FengWu | 2122 | -0.26433 | -0.34385 | -0.247331 | -0.156388 | -0.12827 | -0.172177 | -0.19462 | -0.187162 | -0.367524 | -0.444629 | -0.334393 | -0.25269 | | NordicS2SSibyl | 10 | NordicS2S1ClimSDE | 20 | -0.232298 | -0.159344 | -0.259306 | -0.321515 | -0.19219 | -0.424364 | -0.237277 | -0.201186 | -0.22728 | -0.185519 | -0.168315 | -0.236 | | NordicS2S | 10 | NordicS2S3 | 23 | -0.362 | -0.383 | -0.344 | -0.389 | -0.266 | -0.495 | -0.298 | -0.297 | -0.469 | -0.444 | -0.29 | -0.455 | | NordicS2S | 10 | NordicS2S2 | 26 | -0.525 | -0.576 | -0.494 | -0.502 | -0.384 | -0.53 | -0.319 | -0.614 | -0.695 | -0.485 | -0.418 | -0.664 | | 572 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 1 | 0.061 | 0.117 | 0.029 | 0.002 | 0.033 | -0.014 | 0.003 | 0.058 | 0.133 | 0.11 | 0.072 | 0.129 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 2 | 0.053 | 0.08 | 0.032 | 0.028 | 0.025 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.027 | 0.06 | 0.065 | 0.077 | 0.047 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 14 | -0.002 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.029 | 0.053 | -0.08 | 0.006 | -0.024 | 0.007 | -0.077 | 0.042 | 0.078 | | MicroEnsemble | 2 | StillLearning | 3 | 0.051 | 0.099 | 0.006 | 0.039 | 0.045 | - |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 1 | 0.058 | 0.109 | 0.015 | 0.006 | -0.007 | 0.017 | -0.012 | 0.049 | 0.088 | 0.088 | 0.031 | 0.082 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 4 | 0.043 | 0.079 | 0.014 | 0.01 | -0.022 | 0.022 | -0.02019 | 0.039019 | 0.053095 | 0.053083 | 0.023055 | 0.037094 | | CMAandFDUMicroEnsemble | 12 | FengshunMicroDuet | 74 | 0.009045 | 0.023087 | 0.0160 | 0.007047 | 0.002042 | -0.034013 | -0.001026 | 0.015046 | 0.003114 | -0.012017 | 0.035044 | -0.021103 | | MicroEnsemble | 2 | MicroDuetHuracan | 28 | 0.053009 | 0.098021 | -0.001017 | 0.047053 | -0.001032 | -0.018044 | -0.022047 | 0.034032 | 0.1048 | -0.06406 | 0.027001 | 0.09059 | | MicroEnsembleLP | 23 | StillLearningLPM | 35 | 0.049036 | 0.096056 | -0.004026 | 0.035044 | -0.005022 | -0.008059 | -0.022002 | 0.018036 | 0.086077 | 0.086024 | 0.023066 | 0.103006 | | MicroEnsembleAIFS | 24 | HuracanAIFSgaia | 86 | 0.009024 | 0.02404 | -0.021013 | 0.037032 | -0.015029- | 0.013029 | -0.036017 | -0.022051 | 0.047118 | -0.027009- | 0.016033 | 0.003009 | | LPAIFS | 34 | LPMAIFShera | 57 | 0.027009 | 0.052014 | -0.00402 | 0.008005 | -0.001045 | -0.001015- | 0.043009 | -0.041083 | 0.044078 | 0.023007 | 0.021019 | 0.003061 | | AIFS | 4 | AIFSgaiaAIFSthalassa | 615 | -0.027005 | -0.048028 | 0.020 | -0.016007- | 0.008021 | -0.001026- | 0.026013 | -0.039046 | 0.07304 | -0.01208 | 0.02603 | -0.035117 | | AIFSKITKangu | 45 | AIFSheraKanguPlusPlus | 9 | 0.0040 | -0.010.005 | -0.0310 | -0.0040- | 0.0080 | -0.0290- | 0.0020 | 0.0560 | -0.0 | -0.0009 | 0.010 | -0.0330 | | AIFSKITKangu | 45 | AIFSthalassaKanguParametricPrediction | 159 | -0.0060 | -0.0270 | -0.0110 | -0.0210- | 0.0020 | 0.0220- | 0.0220 | 0.030 | -0.0140 | -0.1070 | 0.0110 | -0.0650 | | scienceAI | 5 | findforecast | 109 | 0.0020 | -0.0010 | -0.0010 | -0.0130- | 0.0050 | 0.0140 | -0.0150 | 0.0110 | -0.0030 | -0.0030- | 0.0020 | -0.0080 | | scienceAI | 5 | zephyr | 119 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | | scienceAI | 5 | ngcm | 119 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | | KITKangu | 65 | KanguPlusPlusKanguS2SEasyUQ | 1139 | 0-1.039 | -01.0441 | -01.0309 | -0.08610 | -1.03430 | -1.04420 | -1.02190 | -1.0261 | -01.0532 | -01.05090 | -1.0364 | -01.0174 | | KITKanguCliMA | 67 | KanguParametricPredictionCliMAWeather | 1116 | -0.01 | -0.0138 | -0.0114 | -0.0127 | -0.0031 | 0.0024 | -0.0122 | -0.012 | -0.0117 | -0.0269 | -0.0103- | 0.0089 | | KITKanguCliMA | 67 | KanguS2SEasyUQCliMAWeather2 | 3517 | -10.351106 | -10.471142 | -10.254123 | -10.257138 | -10.008037-1 | 0.33702 | -10.196134 | -10.421133 | -10.41213 | -10.552278 | -10.146102-1 | 0.45809 | | CliMAFengWuW2S | 78 | CliMAWeather2FengWu2 | 1618 | -0.214264 | -0.242203 | -0.288457- | 0.188008 | -0.113308 | -0.047054 | -0.166301 | -0.178058 | -0.225098 | -0.35276 | -0.274616 | -0.226282 | | CliMAFengWuW2S | 78 | CliMAWeatherFengWu | 1820 | -0.23835 | -0.286476 | -0.225363 | -0.234106 | -0.238205- | 0.137007 | -0.217271 | -0.14139 | -0.252587 | -0.387678 | -0.297472 | -0.26333 | | FengWuW2SNordicS2S | 89 | FengWu2NordicS2S1 | 1719 | -0.236315 | -0.257342 | -0.36724 | -0.00725 | -0.149161 | -0.047439 | -0.128153 | -0.211165 | -0.128283 | -0.332584 | -0.45259 | -0.26272 | | FengWuW2SNordicS2S | 89 | FengWuNordicS2S3 | 2027 | -0.287527 | -0.393778 | -0.27328 | -0.081111 | -0.11328 | -0.133427 | -0.108321 | -0.228477 | -0.392704 | -0.517923 | -0.343413 | -0.299589 | | NordicS2S | 9 | NordicS2S1NordicS2S2 | 1929 | -0.275606 | -0.251731 | -0.263654 | -0.312764 | -0.302222 | -0.329092 | -0.38337 | -0.161669 | -0.27378 | -0.352854 | -0.267503 | -0.312553 | | NordicS2SSibyl | 910 | NordicS2S3ClimSDE | 2521 | -0.498386 | -0.643392 | -0.302319 | -0.31779 | -0.395261 | -0.526506 | -0.463276 | -0.306345 | -0.605634 | -0.699409 | -0.38422 | -0.683 | | NordicS2S | 9 | NordicS2S2 | 28 | -0.575 | -0.603 | -0.587 | -0.592 | -0.498 | -0.563 | -0.677 | -0.482 | -0.707 | -0.677 | -0.526 | -0.537 | HAPPY | 10 | AZN | 21 | -0.34 | -0.419 | -0.278 | -0.878 | -0.31 | -0.023 | -0.25 | -0.292 | -0.598 | -0.3 | -0.31 | -0.798| 299 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature, forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature, forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure, forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure, forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation, forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation, forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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