This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 1 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 12th February 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
MAM 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CLINT | 1 | CLINTMF | 1 | 0.117 | 0.188 | 0.097 | -0.012 | 0.084 | -0.003 | -0.027 | 0.217 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.074 | 0.235 | | CLINT | 1 | CLINTDD | 2 | 0.112 | 0.183 | 0.09 | -0.003 | 0.062 | -0.001 | -0.025 | 0.209 | 0.247 | 0.023 | 0.059 | 0.234 | | CLINT | 1 | CLINTSE | 6 | 0.1 | 0.169 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 0.055 | -0.045 | -0.054 | 0.238 | 0.24 | -0.009 | 0.035 | 0.223 | | CMAandFDU | 2 | FengshunHybrid | 3 | 0.109 | 0.18 | 0.092 | 0.01 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.021 | 0.17 | 0.154 | 0.067 | 0.068 | 0.196 | | CMAandFDU | 2 | FengshunAdjust | 4 | 0.108 | 0.162 | 0.107 | 0.013 | 0.006 | 0.067 | 0.061 | 0.167 | 0.082 | 0.096 | 0.074 | 0.145 | | CMAandFDU | 2 | Fengshun | 16 | 0.05 | 0.049 | 0.036 | -0.016 | 0.164 | 0.011 | 0.008 | 0.112 | 0.02 | -0.085 | 0.099 | 0.11 | | LP | 3 | LPM | 5 | 0.106 | 0.173 | 0.088 | -0.012 | 0.054 | 0.008 | -0.035 | 0.16 | 0.159 | 0.063 | 0.088 | 0.214 | | AIFS | 4 | AIFSgaia | 7 | 0.098 | 0.171 | 0.073 | -0.065 | 0.028 | -0.006 | -0.062 | 0.171 | 0.142 | 0.012 | 0.081 | 0.215 | | AIFS | 4 | AIFShera | 11 | 0.085 | 0.133 | 0.065 | -0.065 | 0.074 | -0.009 | -0.082 | 0.139 | 0.046 | 0.064 | 0.099 | 0.174 | | AIFS | 4 | AIFSthalassa | 12 | 0.077 | 0.14 | 0.06 | -0.048 | 0.016 | -0.035 | -0.067 | 0.192 | 0.018 | 0.048 | 0.055 | 0.159 | | MicroEnsemble | 5 | Huracan | 8 | 0.094 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.001 | -0.005 | 0.036 | 0.002 | 0.16 | 0.169 | 0.036 | 0.022 | 0.207 | | MicroEnsemble | 5 | MicroDuet | 9 | 0.089 | 0.156 | 0.067 | 0.024 | -0.036 | 0.026 | 0.017 | 0.139 | 0.129 | 0.1 | 0.022 | 0.202 | | MicroEnsemble | 5 | StillLearning | 14 | 0.067 | 0.119 | 0.074 | 0.023 | -0.042 | 0.003 | 0.03 | 0.104 | 0.095 | 0.094 | 0.018 | 0.2 | | JR | 6 | slowMamba | 10 | 0.085 | 0.143 | 0.06 | -0.006 | 0.098 | -0.073 | 0.055 | 0.177 | 0.105 | -0.003 | 0.063 | 0.144 | | scienceAI | 7 | zephyr | 13 | 0.069 | 0.09 | 0.088 | -0.027 | 0.028 | 0.01 | 0.102 | 0.144 | 0.087 | 0.019 | 0.057 | 0.115 | | scienceAI | 7 | ngcm | 15 | 0.065 | 0.068 | 0.108 | -0.019 | 0.084 | -0.037 | 0.112 | 0.092 | 0.072 | -0.031 | 0.126 | 0.12 | | scienceAI | 7 | findforecast | 24 | -0.019 | -0.053 | 0.021 | -0.063 | -0.046 | 0.048 | 0.021 | 0.028 | -0.048 | -0.086 | -0.031 | -0.033 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | 8 | GCast42 | 17 | 0.041 | 0.042 | 0.069 | -0.051 | 0.015 | 0.052 | 0.12 | 0.108 | 0.027 | -0.028 | 0.016 | 0.043 | | UWAtmosNVIDIA | 9 | DLESyMS2Sv1 | 18 | 0.03 | 0.037 | 0.013 | -0.064 | 0.034 | 0.035 | -0.033 | 0.073 | -0.08 | 0.01 | 0.039 | 0.099 | | CliMA | 10 | CliMAWeather | 19 | 0.019 | 0.038 | 0.006 | 0.0 | -0.054 | 0.024 | 0.016 | 0.01 | 0.049 | 0.041 | -0.014 | 0.026 | | CliMA | 10 | CliMAWeather2 | 26 | -0.019 | -0.029 | 0.013 | -0.001 | -0.089 | 0.008 | 0.073 | -0.019 | -0.045 | 0.017 | -0.052 | -0.009 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 1 | 0.095 | 0.147 | 0.058 | 0.058 | 0.012 | 0.078 | 0.048 | 0.071 | 0.041 | 0.147 | 0.116 | 0.161 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 2 | 0.086 | 0.134 | 0.053 | 0.068 | 0.028 | 0.064 | 0.05 | 0.084 | 0.045 | 0.098 | 0.106 | 0.147 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 13 | 0.04 | 0.084 | -0.017 | 0.071 | 0.005 | 0.053 | -0.156 | 0.147 | 0.035 | 0.059 | -0.019 | 0.125 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFSgaia | 3 | 0.067 | 0.08 | 0.064 | 0.027 | 0.043 | 0.043 | -0.002 | 0.123 | -0.008 | 0.063 | 0.098 | 0.12 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFShera | 11 | 0.042 | 0.038 | 0.049 | 0.019 | 0.053 | 0.047 | 0.04 | 0.082 | -0.022 | 0.002 | 0.083 | 0.05 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFSthalassa | 23 | -0.003 | -0.07 | 0.063 | 0.072 | 0.006 | 0.015 | 0.017 | 0.077 | -0.161 | -0.073 | 0.055 | 0.041 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | MicroDuet | 4 | 0.066 | 0.11 | 0.042 | 0.065 | -0.023 | 0.063 | 0.053 | 0.045 | 0.04 | 0.048 | 0.072 | 0.136 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | Huracan | 5 | 0.059 | 0.104 | 0.029 | 0.058 | -0.003 | 0.049 | 0.005 | 0.055 | 0.015 | 0.041 | 0.076 | 0.146 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | StillLearning | 9 | 0.054 | 0.082 | 0.049 | 0.075 | -0.026 | 0.043 | 0.054 | 0.037 | 0.026 | 0.034 | 0.077 | 0.139 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTDD | 6 | 0.058 | 0.094 | 0.023 | 0.083 | 0.013 | 0.018 | -0.048 | 0.08 | -0.012 | 0.073 | 0.061 | 0.143 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTMF | 7 | 0.058 | 0.091 | 0.031 | 0.081 | 0.011 | 0.012 | -0.045 | 0.089 | -0.02 | 0.069 | 0.068 | 0.144 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTSE | 12 | 0.04 | 0.086 | -0.001 | 0.086 | 0.001 | -0.018 | -0.07 | 0.07 | -0.011 | 0.055 | 0.03 | 0.141 | | JR | 5 | slowMamba | 8 | 0.056 | 0.065 | 0.064 | 0.088 | 0.082 | -0.031 | 0.061 | 0.117 | -0.017 | 0.058 | 0.07 | 0.112 | | LP | 6 | LPM | 10 | 0.051 | 0.097 | 0.015 | 0.056 | 0.005 | 0.042 | -0.018 | 0.043 | 0.022 | 0.037 | 0.071 | 0.112 | | UWAtmosNVIDIA | 7 | DLESyMS2Sv1 | 14 | 0.037 | 0.041 | 0.023 | -0.016 | 0.057 | 0.079 | 0.044 | 0.036 | 0.026 | 0.083 | 0.025 | 0.045 | | scienceAI | 8 | zephyr | 15 | 0.033 | 0.028 | 0.045 | 0.048 | -0.007 | 0.044 | 0.04 | 0.081 | 0.008 | -0.039 | 0.03 | 0.04 | | scienceAI | 8 | ngcm | 18 | 0.017 | 0.002 | 0.057 | 0.028 | 0.026 | -0.04 | 0.038 | 0.069 | -0.033 | -0.066 | 0.058 | 0.038 | | scienceAI | 8 | findforecast | 25 | -0.025 | -0.067 | 0.008 | -0.0 | -0.023 | 0.04 | 0.025 | 0.011 | -0.046 | -0.1 | -0.023 | -0.083 | | SBUHybrid | 9 | HybridPPx | 16 | 0.02 | 0.054 | 0.002 | -0.02 | -0.001 | -0.013 | -0.087 | 0.087 | 0.002 | 0.05 | 0.026 | -0.063 | | SBUHybrid | 9 | HybridAC | 24 | -0.005 | 0.024 | -0.032 | -0.011 | -0.081 | -0.0 | -0.132 | 0.039 | 0.021 | 0.041 | -0.029 | -0.124 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | 10 | GCast42 | 17 | 0.019 | 0.036 | 0.011 | -0.037 | -0.081 | 0.11 | 0.024 | -0.013 | -0.023 | 0.052 | 0.015 | -0.001 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing evolution of skill scores
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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