This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 1 2 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 12th 19th February 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CLINTCMAandFDU | 1 | CLINTMFFengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.11711 | 0.188165 | 0.09709 | -0.012029 | 0.084038 | -0.003071- | 0.027042 | 0.217142 | 0.24117 | 0.03096 | 0.074104 | 0.235164 | | CLINTCMAandFDU | 1 | CLINTDDFengshunAdjust | 2 | 0.112108 | 0.183154 | 0.09098 | -0.003049 | 0.062007 | -0.001083- | 0.025045 | 0.209132 | 0.247081 | 0.023123 | 0.059112 | 0.234127 | | CLINTCMAandFDU | 1 | CLINTSEFengshun | 615 | 0.1056 | 0.169063 | 0.09043 | -0.01034 | 0.055096 | -0.045029 | -0.054019 | 0.238123 | -0.24006- | 0.009002 | 0.03508 | 0.223113 | | CMAandFDUAIFS | 2 | FengshunHybridAIFSgaia | 3 | 0.109102 | 0.18144 | 0.092 | -0.01015 | 0.016042 | 0.013072 | 0.021012 | 0.17149 | 0.154084 | 0.067062 | 0.06811 | 0.19619 | | CMAandFDUAIFS | 2 | FengshunAdjustAIFSthalassa | 49 | 0.108088 | 0.162117 | 0.107093 | 0.013001 | 0.006053 | 0.067023 | -0.061002 | 0.167188 | 0.082018 | 0.096091 | 0.074103 | 0.145118 | | CMAandFDUAIFS | 2 | FengshunAIFShera | 1611 | 0.05083 | 0.049119 | 0.036069 | -0.016012 | 0.164041 | 0.011039 | -0.008082 | 0.112127 | 0.02038 | -0.085062 | 0.099125 | 0.11156 | | LPCLINT | 3 | LPMCLINTMF | 54 | 0.106101 | 0.173156 | 0.088072 | -0.012038 | 0.05405 | 0.008056 | -0.035012 | 0.16156 | 0.159153 | 0.06306 | 0.08808 | 0.214199 | | AIFSCLINT | 43 | AIFSgaiaCLINTDD | 75 | 0.098101 | 0.171154 | 0.073072 | -0.065048 | 0.028046 | -0.006056 | -0.062006 | 0.17116 | 0.14216 | 0.012056 | 0.081075 | 0.215199 | | AIFSCLINT | 43 | AIFSheraCLINTSE | 1110 | 0.085088 | 0.133143 | 0.065- | 0.06504 | 0.074038 | -0.009015 | -0.082019 | 0.139176 | 0.046157 | 0.06403 | 0.099049 | 0.174189 | | AIFSLP | 4 | AIFSthalassaLPM | 126 | 0.077099 | 0.14153 | 0.06072 | -0.048009 | 0.016049 | -0.035061- | 0.067002 | 0.19211 | 0.01811 | 0.048082 | 0.055101 | 0.159183 | | MicroEnsemble | 5 | HuracanMicroDuet | 87 | 0.094093 | 0.16146 | 0.06075 | 0.00103 | -0.005012 | 0.036066 | 0.002055 | 0.16103 | 0.169101 | 0.036091 | 0.022067 | 0.20718 | | MicroEnsemble | 5 | MicroDuetHuracan | 98 | 0.089092 | 0.156143 | 0.067066 | 0.024016 | -0.036015 | 0.026068 | 0.017025 | 0.139115 | 0.129101 | 0.1057 | 0.022069 | 0.20219 | | MicroEnsemble | 5 | StillLearning | 1412 | 0.067075 | 0.119112 | 0.074082 | 0.023031 | -0.042014 | 0.003052 | 0.0307 | 0.104076 | 0.095069 | 0.094082 | 0.018064 | 0.2174 | | JR | 6 | slowMamba | 1013 | 0.085065 | 0.143093 | 0.06069 | -0.006033 | 0.098 | -0.073079 | -0.055015 | 0.177174 | 0.105038 | -0.003025 | 0.063087 | 0.144126 | | scienceAI | 7 | zephyr | 1314 | 0.06906 | 0.09062 | 0.088077 | -0.027018 | 0.028 | 0.01045 | 0.102079 | 0.144124 | 0.087052 | 0.01902 | 0.057 | 0.115082 | | scienceAI | 7 | ngcm | 1516 | 0.065052 | 0.068048 | 0.108088 | -0.019016 | 0.084065 | -0.037025 | 0.112083 | 0.092089 | 0.072028 | -0.031017 | 0.126099 | 0.121 | | scienceAI | 7 | findforecast | 2425 | -0.01902 | -0.053057 | 0.021014 | -0.063032 | -0.046032 | 0.048051 | 0.021 | 0.028023 | -0.048045 | -0.086097 | -0.031026 | -0.033051 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | 8 | GCast42 | 17 | 0.041034 | 0.042038 | 0.069055 | -0.051044 | 0.015001 | 0.052072 | 0.12108 | 0.10805 | 0.027019 | -0.028008 | 0.01602 | 0.043026 | | UWAtmosNVIDIA | 9 | DLESyMS2Sv1 | 18 | 0.03033 | 0.037038 | 0.013019 | -0.064051 | 0.034028 | 0.035082 | -0.033003 | 0.073053 | -0.08048 | 0.01001 | 0.039036 | 0.09911 | | CliMASBUHybrid | 10 | CliMAWeatherHybridPPx | 19 | 0.019024 | 0.038014 | 0.006057 | -0.002 | 0.049 | -0.054018 | -0.02403 | 0.016114 | -0.01 | 0.049027 | 0.041031 | -0.0140160.026 | | SBUHybrid | CliMA | 10 | CliMAWeather2HybridAC | 2621 | -0.019005 | -0.029018 | 0.013028 | -0.001002- | 0.08903 | 0.008015 | -0.073066- | 0.019091 | -0.045011 | -0.017011- | 0.052008 | -0.009049 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjustFengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.095078 | 0.147106 | 0.05806 | 0.058014 | 0.012046 | 0.078062 | 0.048093 | 0.071078 | 0.041021 | 0.147111 | 0.116092 | 0.161121 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybridFengshunAdjust | 2 | 0.086075 | 0.134107 | 0.053057 | -0.068005 | 0.028024 | 0.064069 | 0.05084 | 0.08406 | 0.045011 | 0.098142 | 0.106085 | 0.147118 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 1310 | 0.04039 | 0.084061 | -0.017002 | 0.071008 | 0.005043 | 0.053042 | -0.156049 | 0.147126 | 0.035048 | 0.059073 | -0.019015 | 0.125095 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFSgaia | 3 | 0.067059 | 0.08068 | 0.064056 | 0.027017 | 0.043044 | 0.043054 | -0.002034 | 0.123095 | -0.008023 | 0.063089 | 0.09808 | 0.12074 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFShera | 1114 | 0.042034 | 0.038041 | 0.049022 | 0.019012 | 0.05304 | 0.047052 | 0.04007 | 0.082064 | -0.022024 | 0.002024 | 0.083068 | 0.0502 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFSthalassa | 2319 | -0.003005 | -0.07043 | 0.063055 | 0.07204 | 0.006026 | 0.015029 | 0.017037 | 0.077074 | -0.161137 | -0.073043 | 0.055072 | 0.041007 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | MicroDuetHuracan | 4 | 0.066056 | 0.11093 | 0.042031 | -0.065016- | 0.02302 | 0.063053 | 0.05305 | 0.045053 | 0.04051 | 0.048063 | 0.072062 | 0.136106 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | HuracanMicroDuet | 56 | 0.059053 | 0.10408 | 0.029041 | 0.058005 | -0.003002 | 0.049057 | 0.00507 | 0.055031 | 0.015045 | 0.04105 | 0.076057 | 0.146096 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | StillLearning | 9 | 0.05404 | 0.082055 | 0.049042 | 0.075015 | -0.026008 | 0.043046 | 0.054071 | 0.037019 | 0.026031 | 0.034027 | 0.07706 | 0.139098 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTDD | 65 | 0.058053 | 0.094078 | 0.023019 | 0.083016 | 0.013034 | 0.018052 | -0.048016 | 0.08062 | -0.012004 | 0.073068 | 0.061054 | 0.143118 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTMF | 78 | 0.058051 | 0.091072 | 0.031021 | 0.081012 | 0.011033 | 0.012053 | -0.045018 | 0.089065 | -0.02008 | 0.069063 | 0.068053 | 0.144117 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTSE | 1211 | 0.04037 | 0.086061 | -0.001007 | 0.086007 | 0.001025 | -0.018015- | 0.07009 | 0.07053 | -0.011013 | 0.05505 | 0.03034 | 0.141116 | | JRLP | 5 | slowMambaLPM | 87 | 0.056052 | 0.065086 | 0.064019 | 0.088026 | 0.082017 | -0.031052 | -0.061001 | 0.117058 | -0.017009 | 0.058062 | 0.07065 | 0.112106 | | LPUWAtmosNVIDIA | 6 | LPMDLESyMS2Sv1 | 1012 | 0.051036 | 0.097048 | 0.015011 | -0.056011 | 0.005038 | 0.042039 | -0.018026 | 0.043036 | 0.022016 | 0.03709 | 0.07102 | 0.112025 | | UWAtmosNVIDIAJR | 7 | DLESyMS2Sv1slowMamba | 1413 | 0.037035 | 0.041051 | 0.023028 | -0.016005 | 0.057052 | -0.07903 | -0.044003 | 0.036079 | 0.026027 | 0.083049 | 0.025053 | 0.045077 | | scienceAI | 8 | zephyr | 15 | 0.033027 | 0.028026 | 0.045032 | 0.04801 | -0.007004 | 0.044032 | 0.04056 | 0.081047 | 0.008045 | -0.039007 | 0.03023 | 0.04008 | | scienceAI | 8 | ngcm | 18 | 0.017 | 0.002009 | 0.057036 | 0.028018 | 0.026031 | -0.04015 | 0.038053 | 0.069045 | -0.033031 | -0.066035 | 0.058033 | 0.038013 | | scienceAI | 8 | findforecast | 2526 | -0.025032 | -0.06707 | 0.008001 | -0.0015 | -0.02302 | 0.04011 | 0.025034 | -0.011009 | -0.046022 | -0.1092 | -0.023031 | -0.083091 | | SBUHybrid | 9 | HybridPPx | 16 | 0.02026 | 0.05404 | 0.00202 | -0.02021- | 0.001036 | -0.013006 | -0.087032 | 0.087074 | -0.002014 | 0.05057 | 0.026041 | -0.063042 | | SBUHybrid | 9 | HybridAC | 2420 | -0.0050 | 0.024006 | -0.032002 | -0.011024 | -0.081035- | 0.0005 | -0.132047 | 0.039025 | -0.021001 | 0.041035 | -0.029006 | -0.124086 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | 10 | GCast42 | 17 | 0.019025 | 0.036041 | 0.011014 | -0.03701 | -0.081042 | 0.11073 | 0.02405 | -0.013015- | 0.023043 | 0.052074 | 0.015011 | -0.001011 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing evolution of skill scores
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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