This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 2 3 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 19th 26th February 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.11087 | 0.165117 | 0.09078 | 0.029006 | 0.038052 | 0.071077 | 0.042044 | 0.142125 | 0.117036 | 0.096067 | 0.104083 | 0.164144 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 25 | 0.108077 | 0.154105 | 0.09808 | 0.049001 | -0.007016 | 0.083089 | 0.045059 | 0.132088 | 0.081028 | 0.123097 | 0.112078 | 0.127098 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 15 | 0.056037 | 0.063036 | 0.043024 | 0.034011 | 0.096076 | 0.029032 | -0.019003 | 0.123085 | -0.006019 | 0.002022 | 0.08043 | 0.113088 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFSgaia | 32 | 0.102083 | 0.144104 | 0.092081 | -0.015 | 0.04206 | 0.072078 | 0.012009 | 0.149153 | 0.08401 | 0.062061 | 0.11091 | 0.19143 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFSthalassa | 98 | 0.088066 | 0.117079 | 0.093064 | 0.001015 | 0.053054 | 0.02305 | -0.002034 | 0.188179 | -0.018024 | 0.091065 | 0.103078 | 0.118081 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFShera | 11 | 0.083052 | 0.119059 | 0.069054 | -0.01202 | 0.041057 | 0.039047 | -0.082078 | 0.127128 | -0.038063 | 0.0620 | 0.125098 | 0.156097 | | CLINTMicroEnsemble | 3 | CLINTMFHuracan | 43 | 0.10108 | 0.156114 | 0.072057 | -0.038006 | 0.05051 | 0.056072 | -0.012045 | 0.156101 | 0.15307 | 0.06054 | 0.08061 | 0.199173 | | CLINTMicroEnsemble | 3 | CLINTDDMicroDuet | 56 | 0.101075 | 0.154105 | 0.072065 | 0.048015 | 0.046024 | 0.056071 | -0.006054 | 0.16085 | 0.1606 | 0.056061 | 0.075055 | 0.19916 | | CLINTMicroEnsemble | 3 | CLINTSEStillLearning | 10 | 0.088057 | 0.143071 | 0.065068 | 0.04019 | 0.038021 | 0.015066 | -0.01906 | 0.176065 | 0.157023 | 0.03036 | 0.049053 | 0.189156 | | LP | 4 | LPM | 64 | 0.099079 | 0.153108 | 0.072054 | 0.009015 | 0.049075 | 0.06107 | -0.002014 | 0.11114 | 0.11026 | 0.082052 | 0.101078 | 0.183168 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 5 | MicroDuetCLINTDD | 7 | 0.093066 | 0.146091 | 0.075041 | 0.03017 | -0.012066 | 0.066065 | -0.055019 | 0.103128 | 0.101066 | -0.091015 | 0.067045 | 0.18181 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 5 | HuracanCLINTMF | 89 | 0.092064 | 0.143088 | 0.066039 | 0.016009 | 0.015073 | 0.068066 | -0.025027 | 0.115123 | 0.101055 | -0.057018 | 0.069046 | 0.1918 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 5 | StillLearningCLINTSE | 12 | 0.07505 | 0.112072 | 0.082033 | 0.031004 | -0.01406 | 0.052023 | -0.07034 | 0.076133 | 0.069049 | -0.082043 | 0.064023 | 0.174173 | | JRscienceAI | 6 | slowMambazephyr | 13 | 0.065043 | 0.093039 | 0.069056 | 0.033003 | 0.098031 | -0.079041- | 0.015077 | 0.174086 | 0.038048 | 0.025013 | 0.08705 | 0.126035 | | scienceAI | 76 | zephyrngcm | 14 | 0.06039 | 0.062033 | 0.077065 | 0.018014 | 0.028061 | -0.045015 | 0.079 | 0.124063 | 0.052045 | -0.02018 | 0.057077 | 0.082061 | | scienceAI | 76 | ngcmfindforecast | 1623 | -0.052026 | -0.048063 | 0.088008 | -0.016033 | -0.065025- | 0.025028 | 0.083027 | 0.089006 | -0.028033 | -0.017097 | -0.09903 | -0.1066 | | scienceAIJR | 7 | findforecastslowMamba | 2516 | -0.02034- | 0.057049 | 0.014033 | -0.032004- | 0.032065 | -0.051052 | -0.021014 | 0.023129 | -0.045044- | 0.097033 | -0.026035- | 0.051067 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | 8 | GCast42 | 17 | 0.034029 | 0.038034 | 0.055036 | -0.044026 | 0.001002 | 0.072062 | 0.108093 | 0.05021 | 0.019038 | -0.008009 | 0.02013 | 0.026009 | | UWAtmosNVIDIA | 9 | DLESyMS2Sv1 | 18 | 0.033028 | 0.038031 | 0.019017 | -0.051061 | 0.028023 | 0.082074 | 0.003032 | 0.053022 | -0.048043 | 0.00104 | 0.036027 | 0.11059 | | SBUHybrid | 10 | HybridPPx | 19 | 0.02402 | 0.014002 | 0.057035 | -0.00201 | 0.049089 | -0.018007 | -0.03026 | 0.114088 | -0.01054 | 0.027024 | 0.031019 | 0.016022 | | SBUHybrid | 10 | HybridAC | 21 | 0.005 | -0.018024 | 0.028013 | -0.002009 | 0.03071 | 0.015025 | -0.066037 | 0.09105 | -0.011046 | -0.011002 | -0.008001 | -0.04903 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.078055 | 0.106074 | 0.0605 | -0.01401 | 0.046019 | 0.062046 | 0.093047 | 0.078069 | -0.021004 | 0.111073 | 0.092071 | 0.121067 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjustFengshun | 25 | 0.075038 | 0.107056 | 0.057022 | -0.00501 | -0.0240 | 0.069028 | -0.084048 | 0.06106 | 0.011001 | 0.142063 | 0.085012 | 0.118075 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunFengshunAdjust | 107 | 0.039036 | 0.061068 | 0.002029 | -0.008018 | -0.043065 | 0.042047 | -0.049039 | 0.126041 | -0.048012 | 0.073097 | -0.015028 | 0.095036 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 2 | AIFSgaiaHuracan | 32 | 0.059049 | 0.06807 | 0.056042 | -0.017048 | 0.044043 | 0.054035 | 0.034043 | 0.095059 | -0.023032 | 0.089031 | 0.08073 | 0.074087 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 2 | AIFSheraMicroDuet | 144 | 0.034041 | 0.041053 | 0.022042 | -0.012017 | 0.04017 | 0.052042 | 0.007053 | 0.064033 | -0.024033 | 0.024023 | 0.068055 | 0.02063 | | AIFSMicroEnsemble | 2 | AIFSthalassaStillLearning | 1911 | 0.00503 | -0.043034 | 0.055039 | -0.04013 | 0.026008 | 0.029032 | 0.037048 | 0.074023 | -0.13702- | 0.043005 | 0.072051 | 0.007059 | | MicroEnsembleLP | 3 | HuracanLPM | 43 | 0.056043 | 0.093064 | 0.03102 | -0.016007 | 0.02041 | 0.053039 | -0.05027 | 0.053064 | -0.051013 | 0.063045 | 0.06206 | 0.106065 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 34 | MicroDuetCLINTDD | 6 | 0.053037 | 0.08052 | 0.041011 | -0.005017- | 0.002041 | 0.057042 | -0.0701 | 0.031069 | -0.045014 | 0.05029 | 0.057041 | 0.096087 | | MicroEnsembleCLINT | 34 | StillLearningCLINTMF | 9 | 0.04035 | 0.055046 | 0.042013 | -0.015022- | 0.008045 | 0.046 | -0.071013 | 0.019072 | -0.031025 | 0.027022 | 0.06044 | 0.098083 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTDDCLINTSE | 515 | 0.053018 | 0.07803 | -0.019003 | -0.016026 | 0.034032 | 0.052009 | -0.01602 | 0.062052 | -0.004038 | 0.068003 | 0.054024 | 0.118082 | | CLINTAIFS | 45 | CLINTMFAIFSgaia | 8 | 0.051036 | 0.07205 | 0.021028 | -0.0120 | 0.03301 | 0.053038 | -0.018007 | 0.065089 | -0.008033 | 0.063071 | 0.053027 | 0.11703 | | CLINTAIFS | 45 | CLINTSEAIFShera | 1116 | 0.037018 | 0.06101 | 0.00703 | -0.007025 | 0.025059 | 0.015032 | -0.00902 | 0.053092 | -0.013051 | -0.05016 | 0.034041 | -0.116034 | | LPAIFS | 5 | LPMAIFSthalassa | 721 | -0.052018 | -0.086066 | 0.019035 | 0.026012 | 0.017001 | 0.052022 | -0.001022 | 0.05808 | -0.009143 | -0.062053 | 0.065019 | -0.106057 | | UWAtmosNVIDIAIgnisNeuralis42 | 6 | DLESyMS2Sv1GCast42 | 1210 | 0.03603 | 0.048049 | 0.011021 | -0.011008 | -0.038057 | 0.039051 | 0.026039 | -0.036013 | 0.016039 | 0.09062 | 0.02028 | -0.025008 | | JRSBUHybrid | 7 | slowMambaHybridPPx | 1312 | 0.035024 | 0.051012 | 0.028043 | -0.005029 | 0.052081 | -0.03002 | -0.003014 | 0.079064 | -0.027047 | 0.049056 | 0.05306 | -0.077044 | | scienceAISBUHybrid | 87 | zephyrHybridAC | 1519 | 0.027004 | -0.026013 | 0.032029 | -0.01024 | 0.004025 | 0.032006 | -0.056002 | 0.047022 | -0.045027- | 0.007031 | 0.023022 | -0.008063 | | scienceAIJR | 8 | ngcmslowMamba | 1813 | 0.017022 | 0.009038 | 0.036021 | 0.018001 | 0.031012 | -0.015054 | -0.053014 | 0.045072 | 0.031007 | -0.035016 | 0.033046 | 0.013037 | | scienceAIUWAtmosNVIDIA | 89 | findforecastDLESyMS2Sv1 | 2614 | -0.032019- | 0.07036 | -0.001008 | -0.015035- | 0.0201 | 0.01103 | -0.034002- | 0.009027 | -0.022004- | 0.092072 | -0.031013 | -0.091018 | | SBUHybridscienceAI | 910 | HybridPPxzephyr | 1617 | 0.026016 | 0.04011 | 0.02034 | -0.021006 | -0.036013- | 0.006022 | -0.032046 | 0.074057 | -0.014015 | -0.057021 | 0.04101 | -0.042025 | | SBUHybridscienceAI | 910 | HybridACngcm | 2018 | 0.0014 | 0.006009 | -0.002033- | 0.024005 | -0.035004 | -0.005012- | 0.047032 | 0.025065 | -0.001029 | -0.035034- | 0.006011 | -0.086018 | | IgnisNeuralis42scienceAI | 10 | GCast42findforecast | 1722 | -0.02503 | -0.041073 | 0.014008 | -0.01017 | -0.042005 | 0.073006 | 0.05035 | -0.01501 | -0.043024 | -0.074095 | -0.011018 | -0.011088 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing evolution of skill scores
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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