This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 4 5 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 5th 12th March 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| MicroEnsembleCMAandFDU | 1 | HuracanFengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.091105 | 0.126143 | 0.08107 | -0.024004 | 0.069059 | 0.056052 | 0.072068 | 0.119147 | 0.059037 | 0.098122 | 0.096121 | 0.1441 | | MicroEnsembleCMAandFDU | 1 | MicroDuetFengshunAdjust | 47 | 0.08083 | 0.10912 | 0.078088 | 0.004014 | -0.04013 | 0.06059 | 0.076054 | 0.09811 | 0.05032 | 0.101106 | 0.076093 | 0.121075 | | MicroEnsembleCMAandFDU | 1 | StillLearningFengshun | 914 | 0.06704 | 0.084044 | 0.079043 | 0.008005 | 0.031039 | 0.057016 | -0.075022 | 0.086102 | -0.023024 | 0.082032 | 0.069042 | 0.11806 | | CMAandFDUMicroEnsemble | 2 | FengshunHybridHuracan | 2 | 0.091 | 0.122135 | 0.09098 | -0.016001 | 0.051076 | 0.057045 | 0.055083 | 0.136122 | 0.016064 | 0.106 | 0.098122 | 0.101131 | | CMAandFDUMicroEnsemble | 2 | FengshunAdjustMicroDuet | 85 | 0.06809 | 0.096119 | 0.08093 | -0.014021- | 0.029049 | 0.06605 | 0.056082 | 0.092101 | 0.008062 | 0.101112 | 0.076101 | 0.06117 | | CMAandFDUMicroEnsemble | 2 | FengshunStillLearning | 169 | 0.029078 | 0.034099 | 0.022094 | -0.006021 | 0.039037 | 0.018046 | -0.028079 | 0.087091 | -0.035037 | 0.033098 | 0.027095 | 0.055115 | | LP | 3 | LPM | 3 | 0.087097 | 0.118134 | 0.0709 | 0.003007 | 0.097092 | 0.061041 | 0.019035 | 0.135146 | 0.016038 | 0.112123 | 0.095118 | 0.125109 | | CLINTAIFS | 4 | CLINTMFAIFSgaia | 54 | 0.074091 | 0.09611 | 0.058109 | -0.004009 | 0.097083 | 0.064039 | -0.00605 | 0.145161 | 0.04032 | 0.059107 | 0.072121 | 0.138091 | | CLINTAIFS | 4 | CLINTDDAIFSthalassa | 710 | 0.071073 | 0.093077 | 0.056102 | -0.002026 | 0.085073 | 0.064035 | -0.008002 | 0.143207 | -0.048009 | 0.054103 | 0.067095 | 0.135038 | | CLINTAIFS | 4 | CLINTSEAIFShera | 1011 | 0.057072 | 0.078088 | 0.048088 | -0.015002 | 0.083074 | 0.027031 | -0.022017 | 0.145158 | -0.027021 | 0.035084 | 0.05115 | 0.128039 | | AIFSCLINT | 5 | AIFSgaiaCLINTMF | 6 | 0.074085 | 0.093112 | 0.08 | -0.022001 | 0.07091 | 0.04905 | 0.027015 | 0.144153 | 0.006054 | 0.103081 | 0.086097 | 0.086095 | | AIFSCLINT | 5 | AIFSthalassaCLINTDD | 118 | 0.051083 | 0.05711 | 0.066078 | -0.008001 | 0.049081 | 0.04105 | -0.038013 | 0.189152 | -0.03061 | 0.098075 | 0.053092 | 0.017096 | | AIFSCLINT | 5 | AIFSheraCLINTSE | 12 | 0.051068 | 0.06096 | 0.062067 | -0.03501 | 0.061077 | 0.0401 | -0.054003 | 0.146144 | -0.059047 | 0.05805 | 0.082083 | 0.044075 | | scienceAISBUHybrid | 6 | ngcmHybridPPx | 13 | 0.036042 | 0.029027 | 0.069081 | 0.008 | 0.037108 | -0.01901 | 0.062022 | 0.071135 | -0.038049- | 0.021068 | 0.075063 | 0.039008 | | scienceAISBUHybrid | 6 | zephyrHybridAC | 15 | 0.035036 | 0.027011 | 0.062068 | -0.003013 | 0.012125 | 0.034009 | 0.066031 | 0.083115 | -0.03404 | 0.0041 | 0.057053 | -0.014024 | | scienceAIJR | 67 | findforecastslowMamba | 2216 | -0.027035- | 0.066052 | 0.0103- | 0.03025 | -0.014052 | -0.02054 | -0.02803 | 0.003125 | -0.032031- | 0.099028 | -0.024033- | 0.068058 | | SBUHybridscienceAI | 78 | HybridPPxngcm | 1417 | 0.036035 | 0.016021 | 0.069074 | 0.00102 | 0.108048 | -0.0016 | 0.012053 | 0.122077 | -0.067028 | -0.071027 | 0.049082 | 0.011036 | | SBUHybridscienceAI | 78 | HybridACzephyr | 1719 | 0.028032 | -0.001014 | 0.052071 | 0.00801 | 0.109019 | 0.026 | 0.009066 | 0.093085 | -0.061029 | -0.039017 | 0.039069 | -0.015009 | | JRscienceAI | 8 | slowMambafindforecast | 1822 | -0.028025 | -0.037066 | 0.036012 | -0.02015 | -0.06009- | 0.054025 | -0.01203 | 0.118004 | -0.02032 | -0.037095 | -0.044019 | -0.018062 | | IgnisNeuralis42UWAtmosNVIDIA | 9 | GCast42DLESyMS2Sv1 | 1918 | 0.026034 | 0.034035 | 0.03103 | -0.027021- | 0.022044 | 0.05053 | 0.059022 | 0.009037 | -0.034012 | 0.008066 | 0.015055 | 0.001026 | | UWAtmosNVIDIAIgnisNeuralis42 | 10 | DLESyMS2Sv1GCast42 | 20 | 0.025026 | 0.026031 | 0.01034 | -0.062004 | -0.034021 | 0.069042 | 0.005044 | 0.023017 | -0.04032 | 0.064001 | 0.031018 | 0.022006 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 1 | 0.065072 | 0.094107 | 0.059064 | -0.006005 | 0.026033 | 0.03703 | 0.045034 | 0.076092 | 0.012027 | 0.091086 | 0.082091 | 0.065069 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 73 | 0.048056 | 0.082087 | 0.039048 | 0.002009 | -0.03602 | 0.041049 | 0.048043 | 0.044069 | 0.008016 | 0.096082 | 0.048055 | 0.062066 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 1011 | 0.038034 | 0.05042 | 0.03604 | -0.004 | 0.0005 | -0.0090 | -0.03803 | 0.104098 | -0.004003 | 0.044014 | 0.018024 | 0.079077 | | MicroEnsemble | 2 | Huracan | 2 | 0.06056 | 0.088079 | 0.052056 | -0.027021 | 0.045041 | 0.034 | 0.032024 | 0.067074 | 0.027006 | 0.05103 | 0.088095 | 0.078077 | | MicroEnsemble | 2 | MicroDuet | 36 | 0.054 | 0.073 | 0.052054 | -0.002003 | 0.025 | 0.041038 | 0.044032 | 0.047052 | 0.041038 | 0.046042 | 0.07078 | 0.06807 | | MicroEnsemble | 2 | StillLearning | 9 | 0.044046 | 0.057063 | 0.046047 | -0.0002 | 0.012015 | 0.03303 | 0.034023 | 0.037045 | 0.03038 | 0.032036 | 0.063073 | 0.068 | | LPCLINT | 3 | LPMCLINTDD | 4 | 0.052055 | 0.08808 | 0.026038 | -0.008023 | 0.02604 | 0.03045 | -0.038015 | 0.072087 | 0.013015 | 0.068057 | 0.067077 | 0.054048 | | AIFSCLINT | 43 | AIFSgaiaCLINTMF | 5 | 0.051055 | 0.077 | 0.03804 | -0.019027 | 0.016042 | 0.02905 | -0.002015 | 0.093089 | -0.0009 | 0.081054 | 0.049079 | 0.055045 | | AIFSCLINT | 43 | AIFSheraCLINTSE | 1113 | 0.037032 | 0.048047 | 0.032023 | -0.011029 | 0.05203 | 0.035007 | -0.033039 | 0.102062 | -0.014019 | 0.017004 | 0.049069 | 0.007041 | | AIFSLP | 4 | AIFSthalassaLPM | 217 | -0.011053- | 0.045089 | 0.03032 | -0.011018- | 0.007029 | 0.017026 | -0.035038 | 0.078075 | -0.122011- | 0.039057 | 0.011083 | -0.036054 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTDDAIFSgaia | 68 | 0.049051 | 0.07307 | 0.025052 | -0.017003 | 0.037026 | 0.048025 | -0.016007 | 0.079105 | -0.008007 | 0.05905 | 0.055067 | 0.054046 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTMFAIFShera | 810 | 0.048046 | 0.068059 | 0.027045 | -0.022006 | 0.038058 | 0.054033 | -0.018023 | 0.082118 | -0.0015 | 0.051013 | 0.057069 | 0.052019 | | CLINTAIFS | 5 | CLINTSEAIFSthalassa | 1220 | 0.033002 | -0.053028 | 0.013048 | -0.0290 | 0.029006 | 0.023021 | -0.027016 | 0.063094 | -0.012143 | -0.036035 | 0.04104 | -0.045026 | | SBUHybrid | 6 | HybridPPx | 1312 | 0.031032 | 0.022033 | 0.053057 | -0.023035 | 0.082069 | -0.00602 | -0.006009 | 0.084089 | -0.036033 | 0.053058 | 0.072076 | -0.051047 | | SBUHybrid | 6 | HybridAC | 1914 | 0.01402 | -0.001013 | 0.043053 | -0.024032 | 0.05049 | -0.002007 | 0.018015 | 0.051066 | -0.02024 | 0.043059 | 0.035045 | -0.09077 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | 7 | GCast42 | 1415 | 0.026019 | 0.042029 | 0.019018 | 0.013014 | -0.058051 | 0.033026 | 0.025018 | -0.004003 | 0.031023 | -0.032011 | 0.024019 | -0.001003 | | JRscienceAI | 8 | slowMambangcm | 1516 | 0.025018 | 0.039013 | 0.036039 | 0.024019 | 0.007016 | -0.056014- | 0.026021 | 0.072065 | 0.002027 | -0.027042 | 0.058021 | 0.045007 | | scienceAI | 98 | ngcmzephyr | 1617 | 0.02018 | 0.013011 | 0.039034 | 0.02801 | 0.009005 | -0.012009 | 0.022027 | 0.07053 | 0.01903 | -0.035045 | 0.019023 | -0.006 | | scienceAI | 98 | zephyrfindforecast | 1723 | -0.019023 | -0.013062 | 0.036006 | 0.011004 | -0.008004 | 0.017029 | 0.031026 | -0.0601 | -0.014008 | -0.03108 | -0.017014 | -0.014058 | | scienceAIJR | 9 | findforecastslowMamba | 2318 | -0.028014- | 0.073024 | 0.011034 | -0.0003- | 0.001011 | -0.016062 | -0.037013- | 0.00707 | -0.025027- | 0.094007 | -0.01305- | 0.078015 | | UWAtmosNVIDIA | 10 | DLESyMS2Sv1 | 1819 | 0.01601 | 0.03017 | -0.009005 | -0.011018 | 0.014012 | 0.026024 | -0.008018 | 0.019012 | -0.007003 | 0.051029 | 0.019034 | -0.005013 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing evolution of skill scores
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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