This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the JJA 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 1 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th May 2026 and Thursday 14th May 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
JJA 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
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| title | Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunAdjust | 1 | 0.107 | 0.153 | 0.034 | 0.127 | 0.053 | 0.082 | 0.029 | 0.07 | 0.036 | 0.205 | 0.033 | 0.356 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | FengshunHybrid | 2 | 0.094 | 0.141 | 0.005 | 0.148 | 0.047 | 0.103 | 0.004 | 0.037 | -0.021 | 0.211 | 0.027 | 0.322 | | CMAandFDU | 1 | Fengshun | 5 | 0.084 | 0.103 | 0.029 | 0.122 | 0.036 | 0.096 | 0.037 | 0.052 | -0.013 | 0.153 | 0.021 | 0.326 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFShera | 3 | 0.09 | 0.134 | 0.033 | 0.104 | 0.052 | 0.066 | 0.053 | 0.031 | -0.095 | 0.208 | 0.072 | 0.338 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFSthalassa | 6 | 0.075 | 0.122 | 0.026 | 0.089 | 0.002 | 0.061 | 0.044 | -0.005 | -0.124 | 0.193 | 0.072 | 0.345 | | AIFS | 2 | AIFSgaia | 16 | 0.039 | 0.078 | 0.008 | 0.061 | -0.064 | 0.049 | 0.023 | -0.058 | -0.174 | 0.143 | 0.051 | 0.323 | | SBUHybrid | 3 | HybridStillDeveloping | 4 | 0.089 | 0.153 | 0.006 | 0.086 | 0.063 | 0.036 | 0.018 | -0.006 | -0.013 | 0.187 | 0.058 | 0.294 | | SBUHybrid | 3 | HybridPPx | 12 | 0.053 | 0.089 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.067 | 0.022 | 0.054 | -0.028 | -0.149 | 0.166 | 0.062 | 0.291 | | SBUHybrid | 3 | HybridAC | 17 | 0.036 | 0.065 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.026 | 0.019 | 0.006 | -0.138 | 0.125 | 0.023 | 0.261 | | MicroEnsemble | 4 | MicroDuet | 7 | 0.071 | 0.129 | 0.016 | 0.078 | 0.01 | 0.031 | 0.077 | 0.029 | -0.065 | 0.168 | 0.043 | 0.286 | | MicroEnsemble | 4 | StillLearning | 9 | 0.064 | 0.118 | 0.009 | 0.059 | 0.021 | 0.043 | 0.072 | 0.0 | -0.074 | 0.155 | 0.038 | 0.272 | | MicroEnsemble | 4 | Huracan | 22 | 0.018 | 0.033 | -0.019 | 0.121 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.039 | -0.025 | -0.173 | 0.076 | 0.015 | 0.24 | | scienceAI | 5 | zephyr | 8 | 0.068 | 0.102 | 0.023 | 0.104 | 0.054 | 0.025 | 0.044 | 0.019 | -0.04 | 0.12 | 0.064 | 0.226 | | scienceAI | 5 | ngcm | 15 | 0.048 | 0.07 | 0.023 | 0.088 | 0.046 | -0.017 | 0.032 | 0.023 | -0.077 | 0.097 | 0.049 | 0.19 | | scienceAI | 5 | findforecast | 18 | 0.034 | 0.049 | 0.003 | 0.073 | 0.045 | 0.016 | -0.055 | 0.018 | 0.046 | 0.074 | 0.021 | 0.023 | | CLINT | 6 | CLINTDD | 10 | 0.063 | 0.104 | 0.007 | 0.102 | 0.009 | 0.066 | 0.034 | -0.0 | -0.129 | 0.14 | 0.059 | 0.295 | | CLINT | 6 | CLINTMF | 11 | 0.058 | 0.101 | -0.002 | 0.1 | 0.009 | 0.055 | 0.047 | -0.014 | -0.137 | 0.141 | 0.051 | 0.291 | | CLINT | 6 | CLINTSE | 25 | 0.002 | 0.026 | -0.065 | 0.103 | -0.087 | 0.11 | 0.019 | -0.106 | -0.3 | 0.08 | -0.021 | 0.28 | | UWAtmosNVIDIA | 7 | DLESyMS2Sv1 | 13 | 0.051 | 0.1 | -0.017 | 0.121 | -0.039 | 0.053 | -0.042 | -0.082 | -0.194 | 0.138 | 0.061 | 0.382 | | LP | 8 | LPM | 14 | 0.049 | 0.119 | -0.008 | 0.063 | -0.072 | 0.03 | 0.077 | -0.059 | -0.128 | 0.177 | 0.013 | 0.308 | | CliMA | 9 | CliMAWeather | 19 | 0.032 | 0.059 | -0.0 | 0.101 | -0.022 | -0.011 | 0.023 | 0.025 | 0.034 | 0.062 | 0.002 | 0.138 | | CliMA | 9 | CliMAWeather2 | 20 | 0.027 | 0.052 | -0.008 | 0.125 | -0.038 | -0.027 | 0.024 | 0.027 | 0.014 | 0.062 | -0.008 | 0.167 | | IgnisNeuralis42 | 10 | GCast42 | 21 | 0.02 | 0.026 | 0.018 | 0.05 | 0.044 | 0.023 | -0.003 | 0.059 | -0.008 | 0.07 | 0.008 | -0.025 |
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| title | Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| Team name | Team rank | Model name | Model rank | Global | Tropics | NHem. ExTro. | SHem. ExTro. | NHem. Polar | SHem. Polar | Europe | N. Amer. | S. Amer. | Africa | Asia | Oceania |
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| AIFS | 1 | AIFShera | 1 | 0.125 | 0.202 | 0.041 | -0.005 | 0.027 | 0.1 | 0.029 | 0.062 | 0.159 | 0.209 | 0.131 | 0.068 | | AIFS | 1 | AIFSthalassa | 4 | 0.104 | 0.183 | 0.029 | -0.037 | 0.006 | 0.07 | 0.016 | 0.048 | 0.158 | 0.179 | 0.11 | 0.043 | | AIFS | 1 | AIFSgaia | 16 | 0.066 | 0.141 | 0.006 | -0.079 | -0.026 | 0.026 | -0.005 | 0.022 | 0.139 | 0.131 | 0.073 | 0.003 | | CMAandFDU | 2 | FengshunHybrid | 2 | 0.118 | 0.19 | 0.048 | 0.067 | 0.021 | 0.036 | 0.104 | 0.095 | 0.155 | 0.269 | 0.046 | 0.143 | | CMAandFDU | 2 | FengshunAdjust | 3 | 0.117 | 0.168 | 0.066 | 0.031 | 0.013 | 0.102 | 0.111 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.267 | 0.069 | 0.06 | | CMAandFDU | 2 | Fengshun | 5 | 0.101 | 0.132 | 0.064 | -0.021 | 0.013 | 0.123 | 0.092 | 0.096 | 0.115 | 0.212 | 0.06 | 0.004 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | MicroDuet | 6 | 0.1 | 0.194 | 0.027 | 0.035 | -0.011 | -0.023 | 0.114 | 0.044 | 0.109 | 0.234 | 0.078 | 0.142 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | StillLearning | 8 | 0.095 | 0.183 | 0.036 | 0.026 | 0.006 | -0.044 | 0.113 | 0.057 | 0.099 | 0.224 | 0.072 | 0.142 | | MicroEnsemble | 3 | Huracan | 20 | 0.059 | 0.151 | -0.027 | 0.042 | -0.023 | -0.088 | 0.101 | -0.013 | 0.053 | 0.128 | 0.045 | 0.169 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTDD | 7 | 0.097 | 0.171 | 0.023 | -0.047 | 0.024 | 0.071 | 0.067 | 0.062 | 0.109 | 0.182 | 0.093 | 0.065 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTMF | 10 | 0.091 | 0.169 | 0.017 | -0.062 | 0.018 | 0.05 | 0.061 | 0.052 | 0.108 | 0.178 | 0.094 | 0.05 | | CLINT | 4 | CLINTSE | 23 | 0.051 | 0.112 | -0.018 | -0.029 | -0.049 | 0.101 | 0.034 | 0.047 | 0.061 | 0.096 | 0.008 | 0.032 | | LP | 5 | LPM | 9 | 0.091 | 0.2 | 0.016 | -0.006 | -0.042 | -0.032 | 0.096 | 0.022 | 0.102 | 0.219 | 0.073 | 0.134 | | scienceAI | 6 | zephyr | 11 | 0.086 | 0.126 | 0.047 | 0.041 | 0.019 | 0.088 | 0.069 | 0.049 | 0.106 | 0.123 | 0.096 | 0.098 | | scienceAI | 6 | ngcm | 17 | 0.065 | 0.087 | 0.032 | 0.077 | 0.023 | 0.061 | 0.077 | 0.021 | 0.057 | 0.093 | 0.041 | 0.113 | | scienceAI | 6 | findforecast | 24 | 0.036 | 0.055 | 0.015 | 0.037 | 0.034 | -0.021 | 0.004 | 0.012 | 0.064 | 0.086 | 0.029 | 0.056 | | SBUHybrid | 7 | HybridPPx | 12 | 0.086 | 0.16 | 0.023 | 0.047 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.048 | -0.009 | 0.045 | 0.168 | 0.099 | 0.205 | | SBUHybrid | 7 | HybridStillDeveloping | 13 | 0.081 | 0.147 | 0.034 | -0.008 | 0.002 | -0.01 | 0.057 | 0.046 | 0.09 | 0.179 | 0.059 | 0.093 | | SBUHybrid | 7 | HybridAC | 14 | 0.076 | 0.14 | 0.013 | 0.073 | 0.013 | -0.022 | 0.03 | -0.006 | -0.002 | 0.125 | 0.086 | 0.27 | | yubing11 | 8 | resaurora12h | 15 | 0.068 | 0.165 | -0.024 | -0.022 | -0.036 | -0.002 | 0.037 | 0.005 | 0.103 | 0.14 | 0.041 | 0.126 | | MetaCarbon3060 | 9 | PuyunWeather | 18 | 0.064 | 0.155 | -0.032 | -0.022 | -0.022 | -0.014 | 0.024 | 0.023 | 0.114 | 0.137 | 0.013 | 0.118 | | MetaCarbon3060 | 9 | PuyunEnsemble | 33 | -0.106 | -0.098 | -0.185 | -0.053 | -0.127 | -0.066 | -0.173 | -0.069 | -0.087 | 0.018 | -0.312 | 0.054 | | MetaCarbon3060 | 9 | PuyunLDM | 41 | -0.299 | -0.291 | -0.458 | -0.091 | -0.316 | -0.156 | -0.386 | -0.234 | -0.217 | -0.238 | -0.646 | -0.051 | | UWAtmosNVIDIA | 10 | DLESyMS2Sv1 | 19 | 0.063 | 0.12 | 0.009 | -0.029 | -0.036 | 0.077 | -0.033 | 0.019 | 0.001 | 0.096 | 0.07 | -0.004 |
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Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing evolution of skill scores
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25) |
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| title | Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32) |
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