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Seasonal Anomaly Correlation Coefficient Charts
These charts shows the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) for the seasonal anomalies derived from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast.
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- Brown, red and orange colouring imply seasonal forecast anomalies have successfully represented the observed anomalies.
- Light orange and yellow colouring imply seasonal forecast anomalies have had only limited success in representing the observed anomalies.
- Grey and blue colouring imply seasonal forecast anomalies have had no success or been misleading in representing the observed anomalies.
Fig8.3.2-1: Chart of Anomaly Correlation Coefficient for 500hPa geopotential height for the verifying period Sep, Oct, Nov. This is derived from seasonal runs with data time of early Aug. This compares the spacial correlation between:
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Values above about 0.6 (orange, red, brown) indicate success of the seasonal forecast in representing the observed anomalies. Negative values (grey and blues) indicate no success (or actually misleading) seasonal forecast in representing the observed anomalies. Black dots signify 95% confidence.
Fig8.3.2-2: Chart of Anomaly Correlation Coefficient for 2m temperature for the verifying period Sep, Oct, Nov. This is derived from seasonal forecast runs with data time of early Aug. This compares the spacial correlation between:
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