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Example Vertical Profile Displays
Vertical Profile and ecCharts of MUCIN and MUCAPE
Fig8.1.8.2-1: Vertical profile at Mao (Mahon), Menorca, Spain (arrowed) with MUCIN and MUCAPE, all from ecCharts: T+108 VT 18UTC 12 Aug 2020, DT 00UTC 8 Aug 2020.
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Other cases will of course have different characteristics.
Vertical Profile and ecChart of Probability of Convective Precipitation
Fig8.1.8.2-2: A forecast vertical profile for Premuda, Croatia T+90 VT 06UTC 18 Aug 2020, DT 00UTC 14 Aug 2020 . The corresponding ecChart shows the forecast probability for convective precipitation (same model runs).
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It is wise to consider both the probability of convective precipitation charts and the vertical profiles together rather than using either alone to assess the possibility of active convective cells.
Vertical Profile Sequence showing variation of MUCIN and MUCAPE through 24 hours
Fig8.1.8.2-3: Sequence of forecast vertical profiles for Brindisi, Italy. These illustrate the variation in MUCIN and consequent availability of MUCAPE through a full 24h diurnal cycle. In this sequence the structure of the atmosphere above the lowest layers remains largely unchanged. Here, for simplicity, MUCIN is defined as: low MUCIN<50J/kg, moderate 50J/kg<MUCIN<200J/kg, large MUCIN>200J/kg.
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Although this case does not definitively highlight active convection, the hodographs indicate some vertical shear through the model atmosphere. This would be conducive to organised deep moist convection if large MUCAPE were available and were released.
Forecast vertical profiles in the vicinity of a mobile cold front
Fig8.1.8.2-4: The ensemble forecast frontal zones from the cyclone database products (example) T+120hr VT:00UTC 22 Aug 2020, DT:00UTC 17 Aug 2020. Inset shows magnified area around Denmark. Animation of cyclone database products allows an assessment of the developing spread and changing intensity of frontal features.
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- a fixed-time animation of synoptic charts from the cyclone database products (not shown) to assess the variation in synoptic pattern.
- an animation of the frontal zones from the cyclone database products (Fig8.1.2-4) to assess the evolution of the spread of forecast positions.
- vertical profiles on a pseudo cross-section spanning the range forecast frontal zones. This allows assessment of the higher probabilities of frontal structure (e.g. incursion of drier air, persistence of warm air, potential release of instability, frontal slope in the vertical).
Fig8.1.8.2-5: An example of forecast vertical profiles in the vicinity of a mobile cold front crossing Denmark, T+120hr VT:00UTC 22 Aug 2020, DT:00UTC 17 Aug 2020. There are a range of forecast positions of the front among the ensemble solutions but HRES (thick solid) and Ensemble Control Forecast (thick dotted) both position the front approximately between Copenhagen and Odense. The East/West section through this zone illustrates the differences in the structure of the model atmospheres, particularly in the spread of the ensemble temperatures and dewpoints. The pale blue colouring approximately encloses the range of ensemble positions for the front.
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