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Table of Contents

Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast output is equivalent to HRES output where shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

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Some errors have occurred in forecasts near-surface data associated with cases of thick fog.  A bug in IFS has misrepresented the positive feedback between two interacting and imperfectly represented mixing processes in the near surface layers in the new moist physics scheme.  The problem has been added to Known IFS forecasting issuesand a fix has been prepared with implementation in the next IFS upgrade expected late in 2022.. 


Errors associated with soil moisture.

Impact of heat and moisture fluxes

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Users should recognise the impact that low-level moisture has upon temperature forecasts; if humidity is too low then maximum temperatures can be forecast to be too high.  ECMWF is currently investigating problems with soil moisture increments.

See also Section 2.1.4.5 Modelling soil structure.



(FUG Associated associated with Cy50r1)