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Note: The Ensemble Control Forecast is identical to Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output in Cycle49 and HRES output in earlier cycles.  They have the same resolution and are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  Ensemble Control Forecast output, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output and HRES output are fully equivalent where shown in diagrams.  At the time of some older diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

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• The vertical structure of temperature (red) and moisture (dew point, green) in tephigram format, and also dew point depression (blue).  Shaded bands denote for the ensemble the minimum, 25th and 75th percentiles and maximum for each of temperature, dew point and dew point depression distributions at each level, with the median value shown by a thin solid line.  This display strategy mirrors the use of box-and-whisker plots on meteograms.  A thick solid line represents Ensemble Control Forecast  (as on meteogram products).
  
  • dew point depressions are first computed from each ensemble member output at each level, and then the spread and median are derived in the same way as for temperatures and dew point.  So maximum dew point depression shown is not derived from the highest temperature on any ensemble member and the lowest dew point on any ensemble member at that level.
  • Wind arrows from Ensemble Control Forecast standard level output are shown on the dew point depression diagram (5m/s per full barb).  This plotting position was chosen for convenience, and not because of any direct or implied relationship with the dew point depression information itself.
  • Note that whilst the Ensemble Control Forecast traces for each thermal variable all represent plausible solutions, the same cannot be said for the median traces because they will very probably comprise data from different runs at different levels.

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Fig8.1.8-2: An example of ecCharts vertical profile output.  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast  are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical and their results are a single solid trace on the vertical profile.  The feint solid lines are the median value of the ensemble (not including the ensemble control .  The maximum dew point temperature among the ensemble members can be greater than the minimum temperature among the ensemble members.  Of course, these are not from the same ensemble member.  The breadth of the coloured regions give an indication of uncertainty in a similar manner to box and whisker plots. The darker shades (within 25th to 75th percentiles) correspond to the box.  The lighter shades (the total range) correspond to the extent of the whiskers.  The dew point depression range is 0C-20C to show moist environments in more detail.  In this example, at 800hPa, the total dew point depression spread (light shading) is from 0C to more than 20C suggesting great uncertainty, but the large majority of ensemble members (dark shading) and the ensemble control (ex HRES) forecast suggest dew point depression only some 2C-4C giving more confidence.  Note also In this example, at 400hPa, the ensemble control lies outside the 25th to 75th percentile (dark shading) and therefore may not be the most probable result. 

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Note: The diagram is output from Cy48r when the resolution of HRES (~9km) differed from the resolution of medium range ensemble (~18km).  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical and their results are a single trace on the vertical profile.

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• The vertical structure of winds (m/s) is shown by a wind hodograph that uses one line for each ensemble member and one colour for each of a range of levels (warmer colours for low levels and colder ones for upper levels).  Only data from standard pressure levels are shown.  The radial wind speed scale varies to span the value range represented, with certain values (20, 50, 100 m/s) highlighted to aid quick interpretation.  A solid line shows Ensemble Control Forecast .  This should be identical to the winds on the dew point depression plot).
• To avoid plot clutter:
  • the Ensemble Control Forecast run is shown in the same way as the other ensemble members.
  • the ensemble median is not shown separately.

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MUCAPE and MUCIN diagram

The MUCAPE and MUCIN diagram shows the distribution of the most unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (MUCAPE) for three different categories of Convective Inhibition (MUCIN) in box and whisker format.   

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Read about the vertical profile product (P39-44).

(FUG Associated associated with Cy50r1)