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Fig8.1.9.3-7: An example of a rainfall CDF most frequently encountered where very few ensemble members forecast any rain at all.  The small negative EFI shows the ensemble rainfall distribution is lower than the M-Climate distribution.  The upper tail SOT (quantile 90) is negative.  This indicates very few, if any, ensemble members (and in this case none of them) that predict extreme rainfall (above 99th M-Climate percentile, dashed green line).  This suggests confidence that larger than normal rainfall will not occur (small EFI) and exceptional rainfall will not occur (SOT -1.2).



(FUG Associated associated with Cy50r1)