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Fig8.1.12-1:Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails for Total Precipitation and Water Vapour Flux.  EFI (shading) and SOT (black contours) in the forecast DT 00 UTC Monday 27 September 2020 for 24-hour period VT 00UTC 3 October to 00UTC 4 October 2020.  Correspondence is evident between areas larger of Water Vapour Flux EFI and Total Precipitation EFI, particularly over Europe.  

Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast output is equivalent to HRES output shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

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  • in ECMWF newsletter about water vapour flux
  • by David Lavers et al. published in Weather and Forecasting (doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0073.1) gives more details on the evaluation of the precipitation and water vapour flux EFI across western Europe and western North America.



(FUG Associated associated with Cy50r1)