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2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
The evaluation will focus on the 5-day precipitation between 30 September 06UTC and 5 October 06UTC for a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on 35.3N, 24.4E on Crete.
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 28 September 00UTC to 5 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show z500 and T850 from 24 September to 5 October 00UTC, every 24 hour.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
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Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI for 5-day precipitation for 30 September 00UTC to 5 October 00UTC, from different initial dates.
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 5-day precipitation (30 September 06UTC - 5 October 06UTC) for the box on Crete defined in Section 2.1.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
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