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HRES output (10 days forecast period)

• HRES output is shown to give "deterministic" snapshots of the forecast evolution for various combinations of parameters.  It is important not to be beguiled into treating HRES charts as definitive, despite the apparent detail.  The HRES should only be considered as one member of the medium range ensemble.
  Charts available:
  
  • Forecast charts (surface and upper air) - showing a selection of individual and combined parameters, to 10days forecast lead-time.
    
    • Charts available(atmospheric):
      • MSLP and wind speed at 850hPa
      • MSLP and wind at 200hPa
      • MSLP and Rain
      • MSLP and 500-1000hPa thickness
      • Vorticity and wind at 700hPa
      • Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels
      • Wind and geopotential at various pressure levels
      • Wind and relative humidity at various pressure levels
      • Geopotential 500hPa and temperature at 850hPa
      • 2m temperature and 30m winds
      • 2m temperature and 10m winds
      • Total cloud cover
      • Indices (CAPE/K-index/Totalx)
    • Charts available(oceanic):
      • Significant wave height and mean direction
      • Mean wave period and direction
      • Total swell: Significant wave height and mean direction
      • Total swell: Mean wave period and direction
      • Significant wind wave height and mean direction
      • Mean wind wave period and direction
  • Imagery charts:
    • IR and WV imagery charts - these are derived from the structure of the IFS model atmosphere and provide a useful comparison with satellite imagery and analysed and forecast upper air flow patterns.  They may be particularly useful for seeing whether the model is replicating small scale features in the flow. (Example IR chart, Example WV chart). 

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• Medium range ensemble output is shown for individual ensemble members for a few parameters.  More importantly, ensemble output showing a selection of individual and combined parameters is presented in a probabilistic or multi-valued format.  The medium range ensemble consists of 50 members plus one control member.  Charts available:
  • Forecast charts (surface and upper air) - showing a selection of individual and combined parameters, to 15days forecast lead-time.
    • Postage stamp charts - to show the output of all ensemble members for a few parameters at several forecast lead-times. (Example chart).
    • Mean and Spread charts - to place the uncertainty measured by the standard deviation of the members of the latest ensemble into the context of recent uncertainty in the ensemble forecasts.  (Example chart).
    • Probability charts - to show probabilities of events exceeding a given threshold (e.g. rainfall > 5mm/day).  (Example chart).
    • Extreme Forecast Index charts (including clickable multiparameter multi-parameter charts) - to highlight areas where forecast values depart significantly from M-climate. (Example chart).
    • Plumes, Meteograms, EFI-CDF, Vertical Profiles - to give probabilistic interpretation of the ensemble for specific locations with optional M-climate data to emphasize departure from the re-forecast climatology.   
    • Cluster charts - to distil ensemble member output into groups exhibiting similar large-scale patterns enabling assessment of most likely results (i.e. possible 'weather scenarios').  (Example chart).
    • Tropical cyclone activity charts (including genesis) - to indicate tropical cyclone threats worldwide. (Example chart).

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• Weekly mean anomaly charts - to highlight areas where mean forecast values depart significantly from the ER-M-climate for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
• Weekly probability anomaly charts - to highlight the probability of being above the ER-M-climate mean for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
• Weekly probability charts - to show the probability the weekly mean anomalies will be in lower and upper quantiles of the ER-M-climate for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
• Weekly averages of the monthly forecast ensemble for several variables on a single chart. (Example chart).
• Tropical cyclone probability charts (including genesis) - to indicate tropical cyclone threat and intensity worldwide and compare with tropical cyclone frequency and intensity in the ER-M-climate. (Example chart).
• Time-longitude (Hovmoeller) diagram of the observed and forecast ensemble mean anomaly of 500hPa or 1000hPa geopotential (in dam) in the extra-tropics - to show persistence and progression of disturbances and potential interaction between upper and lower features. (Example diagram).
• Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index metrics and Wheeler-Hendon MJO diagram - to show recent and forecast evolution and uncertainty of MJO features. (Example MJO index metrics Hovmoeller diagram, example Wheeler-Hendon MJO diagram).

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Long-range or Seasonal forecast charts are derived from an ensemble (separate from the extended range ensemble) run on the 1st of each month out to 7 months, extended to 13 months each quarter (i.e. every 3 months).   The charts available mostly cover 3-month periods, with the first valid period typically beginning 1 month after data time.
Charts available:

• Monthly mean probability of anomaly charts - to highlight areas where ensemble forecast values depart significantly from the S-M-climate for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
• Climagrams - box and whisker diagrams comparing the distributions of parameter averages within pre-defined regions:
  • as forecast by the seasonal ensemble,
  • as represented in the S-M-climate re-forecasts,
  • and as represented in re-analyses.
    (Example climagram).
• Tropical storm probabilities and anomalies against S-M-climate. (Example chart).
• Niño plumes - show the range of seasonal forecasts of sea-surface temperature over pre-defined regions of equatorial Pacific. (Example plume).

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Provided alongside the forecasts are measures of the skill (Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and reliability that were "achieved" within the respective re-forecast periods.  Forecasters should always consider forecasts at these longer lead times in the context of these verification scores.  Using verification metrics to aid assessment of the predictability.  (Example ROC diagram, example reliability diagram).

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