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Re-forecasts provide a Seasonal model climate (S-M-climate) against which to compare the actual forecasts. The re-forecasts for a given system (now SEAS5) are all created before the System comes into operation. In this sense the re-forecast strategy differs from the update-in-real-time approach used for shorter ranges (ER-M-climate and M-climate). The distributions of the seasonal ensemble forecasts can be compared with the corresponding S-M-Climate distributions to give information regarding forecast anomalies.
Availability
Seasonal forecast output is available:
- at 12UTC on 5th of the months Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul, Sep, Oct, Dec for forecasts of months 1-7.
- at 12UTC on 5th of the months Feb, May, Aug, Nov for forecasts of months 1-13.
Forecast ranges & resolution
Ranges | Base times | Resolution |
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1 to 7 month | 00 UTC |
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Graphical Products
For each point of the chart the atmospheric variables (e.g. 2m temperature, surface temperature, total precipitation, mean sea level pressure) are averaged values over month-long periods.
Use of the Long-Range (Seasonal) Output
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(Note: In older material there may be references to issues that have subsequently been addressed)
- More information on products available from the atmospheric model ensemble, long range forecast (Set V - SEAS) are available on the ECMNWF website.
- ECMWF SEAS5 User Guide
- ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Graphical Products (Forecast products and Verification measures)
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