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An example of temperature anomaly probabilities in a case of cold snap over North America at the end of January 2019.
On the plot below comparison of products is shown between the old and new climatology. There are some significant differences. Anomalies with respect to old fixed climatology look more pronounced partly due to the climate change. Warm anomalies in the Arctic for example have diminished significantly when applying new reforecast-based climatology which is updated on the fly using always data in the past 20 years.
Comparison of temperature anomaly probabilities between the new and old climatology.