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Analyses (click image for full-size) Image Added Image Added Image Added Image Added MSLP, Z500 and track of Hurricane Nadine PV/320K and MSLP MSLP, 10m wind, Z500 & windspeed, SST Cross-section through Hurricane Nadine and cut-off low showing PV, theta and wind vectors. Illustrates warm core of Nadine and cold core of cut-off.

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HRES (deterministic) forecast   Image Added Image Added Image Added MSLP & T2m, Z200 & windspeed, equiv. potential temp., 850hPa wind & T Total precipitation Z500 difference between HRES & analysis

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Ensembles Image Added Image Added Image Added RMSE curves Z500 for ensemble MSLP ensemble mean and spread compared to analysis MSLP ensemble spaghetti plot Image Added Image Added Image Added Ensemble stamp map total precipitation over France Ensemble difference stamp map of z500 Comparing MSLP of perturbed ensemble member to analysis Image Added Image Added   Difference maps of two ensemble members to analysis Cumulative distribution function MSLP for ensemble forecast at Toulouse, France

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Principal component analysis and Clusters After computing the EOFs a clustering can be applied to all of the above ensemble plots. Image Added Image Added Image Added EOF and PCA analyses of ensemble spread for Z500 using clustering (top graph; clusters shown as either red or blue dots). Z500, ensemble mean of cluster 1 and 2 (top left & right respectively), compared to HRES & analysis bottom. Stamp difference map of MSLP with clusters enabled. Maps are ordered according to which cluster they are in Image Added Image Added Image Added Ensemble spaghetti plot with clusters. Top left and top right show ensemble members in cluster 1 & 2 respectively. Z500 RMSE curves with clusters. Ensemble members in each cluster are plotted separately. Stamp map of total precip. with clustering enable. Maps are ordered according to their cluster.

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Probabilities Two ensemble forecasts datasets were provided for the workshop. The 2012 operational ensemble and a reforecast using the operational ensemble of 2016. Image Added Probabilities of total precipitation greater than 20mm for both ensembles at 3 different forecast times.

Attendees

Students from ENM only - no other OpenIFS users this time.

Expect about 20-25 participants.

Students background: 1st yr basic meteorology, 2nd yr statistical tools / numerics (they do small modelling project)

Work in groups: 5 x 4 persons, 2 per PC.

Facilities

PC running CentOS (based on redhat enterprise)

Language

Students have asked for more lessons in English.

English teachers will be there. Encourage students to write and speak in English.

? tutorials written in English? (maybe with some parts in French)?

Topic

Storm Nadine. Case of extratropic transition & severe weather over France.

Paper: Pantillon, F., Chaboureau, J.-P. and Richard, E. (2015), Vortex–vortex interaction between Hurricane Nadine (2012) and an Atlantic cut-off dropping the predictability over the Mediterranean. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. doi: 10.1002/qj.2635 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2635/abstract

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Could focus on clustering of the ensemble ?  Different algorithms for clustering?

Tubing .v. clustering. see: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434%281999%29014%3C0741%3ATAATCF%3E2.0.CO%3B2   Ask Linus about this.

TODO

•  Decide on forecasts for workshop: resolution, start date(s) and forecast length
•   Run HRES & ensemble forecasts
•  Book accommodation
•  Check for observations we might have in the archive for HYMEX that could be used

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Forecasts

T1279 HRES

Ensemble

Plots

PCA in Metview - speak to Linus (he says he has some Fortran code). Or could use R

Try to reproduce the plots in the article.

Day 1/2 plots

HRES & analysis only (ensemble in later task).

Plots that summarize the situation, focused on the study of Nadine and the cutoff (horizontal maps and vertical cross sections) and maybe a plot of the rainfall over France.

Notes from Frédéric: (9/Feb)

I just spoke to a colleague of mine teaching statistics. He told me that our second year students that will attend the workshop will have knowledge in PCA and clustering methods via ascending hierarchical classification (with R)

So I think that on Day 2, it would be nice to make them do the PCA for ECMWF t+96 ensemble forecasts (20120920 analysis and forecast for the 20120924, figure 5 of Pantillon), the ascending classification (figure 6) and the clustering (figure 7). We could leave the classification and the clustering as extra questions, to leave room for the stochastic ensemble, the EDA and the class ensemble.

I will also think about the interesting plots that we could do to illustrate this case, for example vertical crosssection of potential vorticity.

Notes

SCM exercises - sensitvity of the model to changing physics. Focus on convection, initiation of deep convection. Stochastic physics, impact on convection? impact of convective scheme?

Do we want the students to run OpenIFS? - probably not enough time / resources

Interested in stochastic physics / ensemble methods.

Can we get observations from HyMEX to add to the metview exercises?

Focus on ensemble modelling and predictability.

Try to include some Hymex observations in metview VM?

Some questions to include:

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Travel & local arrangements

ENM is approx 20mins by car from the airport.