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These parameters are calculated over the same weekly periods as the other monthly forecast products and are averaged over an ocean basin.  The tropical cyclone identifying algorithms are algorithms are the same as are used for the medium range tropical cyclone activity products.  . Evaluation of TC tracks for the Extended range ENS is computed at 6hr intervals in the same way as medium range ENS and the outputs are consistent.

Fig8.2.7-1: To view tropical storm frequency.

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Fig8.2.7-6: Weekly mean tropical storm strike probability of the extended range forecast.  Colours give probability in percentages.

Fig8.2.7-7: Weekly mean tropical storm strike probability deduced from the extended range re-forecasts, for the same week as Fig8.2.7-6.  Colours give probability in percentages.

 Fig8.2.7-8: Weekly mean anomaly of tropical storm strike probability for the same week as Fig8.2.7-6.  Colours give indication of more likely (positive probabilities, red to brown/black), or less likely (negative probabilities, cyan to blue/black) than shown in the extended range re-forecasts.

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