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The seasonal (SEAS5) forecast of the anomaly (purple) lies well lies well above above upper terciles of the seasonal model climatologies (yellow and grey). .

Red dots are verification values from observations.

Fig8.3.4.2-4: Sea surface temperature anomaly over the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean area.  

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• in September to November below the mean but within the lower terciles of the seasonal model climatologies (yellow and grey).
• in January and February above the mean but rising above upper terciles of the seasonal model climatologies (yellow and grey).

 Red dots are verification values from observations.

Fig8.3.4.2-5: Sea surface temperature anomaly over the Nino 3.4 area.

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