This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 4 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 4th September 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.072 0.141 0.028 0.001 -0.013 -0.033 0.023 0.029 0.13 0.1 0.064 0.114 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.068 0.122 0.036 -0.002 0.013 -0.013 0.019 0.041 0.066 0.096 0.076 0.092 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 10 0.019 0.049 0.001 -0.026 0.011 -0.046 0.01 -0.008 0.024 -0.002 0.056 0.031 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 2 0.072 0.11 0.046 0.033 0.028 0.015 0.049 0.032 0.057 0.069 0.078 0.117 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 4 0.068 0.103 0.048 0.027 0.023 0.007 0.058 0.026 0.052 0.095 0.071 0.113 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 9 0.029 0.031 0.035 0.013 0.013 0.003 0.034 0.027 -0.024 -0.032 0.049 0.047 LP 3 LPM 5 0.053 0.074 0.048 0.043 0.02 -0.015 0.022 0.042 0.04 0.026 0.071 0.068 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.047 0.073 0.043 -0.013 0.019 -0.03 0.053 0.004 0.041 0.053 0.072 -0.014 AIFS 4 AIFShera 7 0.045 0.059 0.047 -0.014 0.021 -0.003 0.026 0.004 0.056 0.022 0.08 0.035 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 8 0.036 0.057 0.03 -0.034 0.023 -0.022 0.013 -0.003 0.019 0.023 0.067 -0.008 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 0.003 -0.0 0.006 0.001 0.001 0.012 -0.01 0.01 -0.002 -0.002 0.004 -0.002 scienceAI 5 zephyr 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguPlusPlus 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguParametricPrediction 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguS2SEasyUQ 35 -1.306 -1.415 -1.228 -1.346 -1.062 -1.168 -1.159 -1.208 -1.46 -1.342 -1.225 -1.72 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 16 -0.135 -0.143 -0.164 -0.157 -0.113 -0.02 -0.098 -0.161 -0.151 -0.189 -0.149 -0.096 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 17 -0.159 -0.194 -0.157 -0.265 -0.122 -0.043 -0.127 -0.172 -0.208 -0.228 -0.17 -0.197 WindBorne 8 WeatherMesh 18 -0.196 -0.161 -0.206 -0.295 -0.192 -0.36 -0.2 -0.223 -0.185 -0.189 -0.202 -0.205 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu2 19 -0.223 -0.176 -0.367 -0.084 -0.262 -0.087 -0.326 -0.119 -0.088 -0.3 -0.443 -0.214 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu 21 -0.264 -0.34 -0.247 -0.156 -0.128 -0.172 -0.19 -0.187 -0.367 -0.444 -0.334 -0.25 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S1 20 -0.232 -0.159 -0.259 -0.321 -0.192 -0.424 -0.237 -0.201 -0.227 -0.185 -0.168 -0.236 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S3 23 -0.362 -0.383 -0.344 -0.389 -0.266 -0.495 -0.298 -0.297 -0.469 -0.444 -0.29 -0.455 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S2 26 -0.525 -0.576 -0.494 -0.502 -0.384 -0.53 -0.319 -0.614 -0.695 -0.485 -0.418 -0.664
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.058 0.109 0.015 0.006 -0.007 0.017 -0.012 0.049 0.088 0.088 0.031 0.082 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 4 0.043 0.079 0.014 0.01 -0.022 0.022 -0.02 0.039 0.053 0.053 0.023 0.037 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 7 0.009 0.023 0.016 0.007 0.002 -0.034 -0.001 0.015 0.003 -0.012 0.035 -0.021 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 2 0.053 0.098 -0.001 0.047 -0.001 0.018 -0.022 0.034 0.1 0.064 0.027 0.09 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 3 0.049 0.096 -0.004 0.035 -0.005 0.008 -0.022 0.018 0.086 0.086 0.023 0.103 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 8 0.009 0.024 -0.021 0.037 -0.015 -0.013 -0.036 0.022 0.047 -0.027 -0.016 0.003 LP 3 LPM 5 0.027 0.052 -0.004 0.008 -0.001 -0.001 -0.043 0.041 0.044 0.023 0.021 0.003 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.027 0.048 0.02 -0.016 -0.008 -0.001 -0.026 0.039 0.073 0.012 0.026 -0.035 AIFS 4 AIFShera 9 0.004 0.01 0.005 -0.031 -0.004 -0.008 -0.029 -0.002 0.056 -0.009 0.01 -0.033 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 15 -0.006 -0.027 0.011 -0.021 -0.002 0.022 -0.022 0.03 0.014 -0.107 0.011 -0.065 scienceAI 5 findforecast 10 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.013 -0.005 0.014 -0.015 0.011 0.003 -0.003 -0.002 0.008 scienceAI 5 zephyr 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguPlusPlus 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguParametricPrediction 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguS2SEasyUQ 35 -1.351 -1.471 -1.254 -1.257 -1.008 -1.337 -1.196 -1.421 -1.412 -1.552 -1.146 -1.458 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 16 -0.214 -0.242 -0.288 -0.188 -0.113 -0.047 -0.166 -0.178 -0.225 -0.35 -0.274 -0.226 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 18 -0.238 -0.286 -0.225 -0.234 -0.238 -0.137 -0.217 -0.14 -0.252 -0.387 -0.297 -0.26 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 17 -0.236 -0.257 -0.367 0.007 -0.149 0.047 -0.128 -0.211 -0.128 -0.332 -0.45 -0.26 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 20 -0.287 -0.393 -0.273 -0.081 -0.11 -0.133 -0.108 -0.228 -0.392 -0.517 -0.343 -0.299 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 19 -0.275 -0.251 -0.263 -0.312 -0.302 -0.329 -0.383 -0.161 -0.273 -0.352 -0.267 -0.312 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 25 -0.498 -0.643 -0.302 -0.31 -0.395 -0.526 -0.463 -0.306 -0.605 -0.699 -0.384 -0.683 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 28 -0.575 -0.603 -0.587 -0.592 -0.498 -0.563 -0.677 -0.482 -0.707 -0.677 -0.526 -0.537 HAPPY 10 AZN 21 -0.34 -0.419 -0.278 -0.878 -0.31 -0.023 -0.25 -0.292 -0.598 -0.3 -0.31 -0.798
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
