This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 4 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 5th March 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
MAM 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 1 0.091 0.126 0.08 -0.024 0.069 0.056 0.072 0.119 0.059 0.098 0.096 0.144 MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 4 0.08 0.109 0.078 0.004 0.04 0.06 0.076 0.098 0.05 0.101 0.076 0.121 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 9 0.067 0.084 0.079 0.008 0.031 0.057 0.075 0.086 0.023 0.082 0.069 0.118 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 2 0.09 0.122 0.09 -0.016 0.051 0.057 0.055 0.136 0.016 0.106 0.098 0.101 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 8 0.068 0.096 0.08 -0.014 -0.029 0.066 0.056 0.092 0.008 0.101 0.076 0.06 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 16 0.029 0.034 0.022 -0.006 0.039 0.018 -0.028 0.087 -0.035 0.033 0.027 0.055 LP 3 LPM 3 0.087 0.118 0.07 0.003 0.097 0.061 0.019 0.135 0.016 0.112 0.095 0.125 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 5 0.074 0.096 0.058 -0.004 0.097 0.064 -0.006 0.145 0.04 0.059 0.072 0.138 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 7 0.071 0.093 0.056 -0.002 0.085 0.064 -0.008 0.143 0.048 0.054 0.067 0.135 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 10 0.057 0.078 0.048 -0.015 0.083 0.027 -0.022 0.145 0.027 0.035 0.05 0.128 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 6 0.074 0.093 0.08 -0.022 0.07 0.049 0.027 0.144 0.006 0.103 0.086 0.086 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 11 0.051 0.057 0.066 -0.008 0.049 0.041 -0.038 0.189 -0.03 0.098 0.053 0.017 AIFS 5 AIFShera 12 0.051 0.06 0.062 -0.035 0.061 0.04 -0.054 0.146 -0.059 0.058 0.082 0.044 scienceAI 6 ngcm 13 0.036 0.029 0.069 0.008 0.037 -0.019 0.062 0.071 0.038 -0.021 0.075 0.039 scienceAI 6 zephyr 15 0.035 0.027 0.062 -0.003 0.012 0.034 0.066 0.083 0.034 0.0 0.057 0.014 scienceAI 6 findforecast 22 -0.027 -0.066 0.01 -0.03 -0.014 0.02 0.028 0.003 -0.032 -0.099 -0.024 -0.068 SBUHybrid 7 HybridPPx 14 0.036 0.016 0.069 0.001 0.108 -0.0 0.012 0.122 -0.067 0.071 0.049 0.011 SBUHybrid 7 HybridAC 17 0.028 -0.001 0.052 0.008 0.109 0.026 0.009 0.093 -0.061 0.039 0.039 -0.015 JR 8 slowMamba 18 0.028 0.037 0.036 -0.02 0.06 -0.054 -0.012 0.118 0.02 0.037 0.044 0.018 IgnisNeuralis42 9 GCast42 19 0.026 0.034 0.031 -0.027 -0.022 0.05 0.059 0.009 0.034 0.008 0.015 0.001 UWAtmosNVIDIA 10 DLESyMS2Sv1 20 0.025 0.026 0.01 -0.062 0.034 0.069 0.005 0.023 -0.04 0.064 0.031 0.022
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.065 0.094 0.059 -0.006 0.026 0.037 0.045 0.076 0.012 0.091 0.082 0.065 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 7 0.048 0.082 0.039 0.002 -0.036 0.041 0.048 0.044 0.008 0.096 0.048 0.062 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 10 0.038 0.05 0.036 -0.004 0.0 0.009 -0.038 0.104 0.004 0.044 0.018 0.079 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 2 0.06 0.088 0.052 -0.027 0.045 0.034 0.032 0.067 0.027 0.051 0.088 0.078 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 3 0.054 0.073 0.052 -0.002 0.025 0.041 0.044 0.047 0.041 0.046 0.07 0.068 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 9 0.044 0.057 0.046 -0.0 0.012 0.033 0.034 0.037 0.03 0.032 0.063 0.068 LP 3 LPM 4 0.052 0.088 0.026 -0.008 0.026 0.03 -0.038 0.072 0.013 0.068 0.067 0.054 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 5 0.051 0.077 0.038 0.019 0.016 0.029 0.002 0.093 -0.0 0.081 0.049 0.055 AIFS 4 AIFShera 11 0.037 0.048 0.032 0.011 0.052 0.035 -0.033 0.102 -0.014 0.017 0.049 0.007 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 21 -0.011 -0.045 0.03 0.011 -0.007 0.017 -0.035 0.078 -0.122 -0.039 0.011 -0.036 CLINT 5 CLINTDD 6 0.049 0.073 0.025 -0.017 0.037 0.048 -0.016 0.079 0.008 0.059 0.055 0.054 CLINT 5 CLINTMF 8 0.048 0.068 0.027 -0.022 0.038 0.054 -0.018 0.082 -0.0 0.051 0.057 0.052 CLINT 5 CLINTSE 12 0.033 0.053 0.013 -0.029 0.029 0.023 -0.027 0.063 -0.012 0.036 0.041 0.045 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 13 0.031 0.022 0.053 -0.023 0.082 -0.006 -0.006 0.084 -0.036 0.053 0.072 -0.051 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 19 0.014 -0.001 0.043 -0.024 0.05 0.002 0.018 0.051 -0.02 0.043 0.035 -0.09 IgnisNeuralis42 7 GCast42 14 0.026 0.042 0.019 0.013 -0.058 0.033 0.025 -0.004 0.031 0.032 0.024 -0.001 JR 8 slowMamba 15 0.025 0.039 0.036 0.024 0.007 -0.056 -0.026 0.072 0.002 0.027 0.058 0.045 scienceAI 9 ngcm 16 0.02 0.013 0.039 0.028 0.009 -0.012 0.022 0.07 0.019 -0.035 0.019 0.006 scienceAI 9 zephyr 17 0.019 0.013 0.036 0.011 -0.008 0.017 0.031 0.06 0.014 -0.031 0.017 -0.014 scienceAI 9 findforecast 23 -0.028 -0.073 0.011 -0.0 -0.001 0.016 0.037 -0.007 -0.025 -0.094 -0.013 -0.078 UWAtmosNVIDIA 10 DLESyMS2Sv1 18 0.016 0.03 -0.009 -0.011 0.014 0.026 -0.008 0.019 0.007 0.051 0.019 -0.005
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
