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Attendees

Students from ENM only - no other OpenIFS users this time.

Expect about 20-25 participants.

Students background: 1st yr basic meteorology, 2nd yr statistical tools / numerics (they do small modelling project)

Work in groups: 5 x 4 persons, 2 per PC.

Facilities

PC running CentOS (based on redhat enterprise)

Language

Students have asked for more lessons in English.

English teachers will be there. Encourage students to write and speak in English.

? tutorials written in English? (maybe with some parts in French)?

Topic

Storm Nadine. Case of extratropic transition & severe weather over France.

Paper: Pantillon, F., Chaboureau, J.-P. and Richard, E. (2015), Vortex–vortex interaction between Hurricane Nadine (2012) and an Atlantic cut-off dropping the predictability over the Mediterranean. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. doi: 10.1002/qj.2635 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2635/abstract


Sensitivity - two main issues : Model resolution - to model interaction of the storm and cut-off low;  Convection processes.

Could focus on clustering of the ensemble ?  Different algorithms for clustering?

Tubing .v. clustering. see: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434%281999%29014%3C0741%3ATAATCF%3E2.0.CO%3B2   Ask Linus about this.

TODO

  • Decide on forecasts for workshop: resolution, start date(s) and forecast length : all runs start 00UTC 20 Sept 2012
  •  Run HRES & ensemble forecasts
  • Book accommodation
  • Check for observations we might have in the archive for HYMEX that could be used


Forecasts

1. T1279 + analyses : OK

2. Ensemble (size & res to be confirmed) : OK, we need also to check if the lower res ensemble proposes 2 distinct scenarios

3. Sensitivity run with ensemble, varying SST?  We can try, to see if it impacts the motion of Nadine. Surface fluxes may also have an influence on the motion of Nadine. Switching of deep convection ? Maybe too radical ? Is it possible to do a sensitivity to the resolution ? The interaction between Nadine and the cutoff seems to be impacted by the resolution.

4. Uncertainty runs: (a) EDA/SV/SPPT/SKEB; (b) EDA/SV; (c) SPPT/SKEB : Will we do class ensembles ?

 

Plots

PCA in Metview - speak to Linus (he says he has some Fortran code). Or could use R

Try to reproduce the plots in the article.

Day 1/2 plots

HRES & analysis only (ensemble in later task).

Plots that summarize the situation, focused on the study of Nadine and the cutoff (horizontal maps and vertical cross sections) and maybe a plot of the rainfall over France.


From Frédéric: (15/Mar)

For the ensemble I wonder if we will see the same bifurcation in the scenarios than in the hires. It seems that for this specific case the lower resolution run was better than the hires. We need to see the results of the ensembles with low res to see if it matches what the operational ensemble proposed at the time.

(note: we will be running the ensemble at operational resolution)

For the ensemble I wonder if we will see the same bifurcation in the scenarios than in the hires. It seems that for this specific case the lower resolution run was better than the hires. We need to see the results of the ensembles with low res to see if it matches what the operational ensemble proposed at the time.

Tubing is not compulsory if you have problems finding the code for that. If we do the same as last year this will be perfect. Maybe we can try just to add the PCA of the 500height in Metview as a bonus for this workshop. I'll ask a colleague about clustering in R. If it it easy to do we can add it as a bonus too. Don't bother doing it in Metview.



Notes from Frédéric: (9/Feb)

I just spoke to a colleague of mine teaching statistics. He told me that our second year students that will attend the workshop will have knowledge in PCA and clustering methods via ascending hierarchical classification (with R)

So I think that on Day 2, it would be nice to make them do the PCA for ECMWF t+96 ensemble forecasts (20120920 analysis and forecast for the 20120924, figure 5 of Pantillon), the ascending classification (figure 6) and the clustering (figure 7). We could leave the classification and the clustering as extra questions, to leave room for the stochastic ensemble, the EDA and the class ensemble.

If you want (and if PCA, classification and clustering are difficult to do in Metview) I can see with my colleagues how to do that in R. I will just need the ECMWF data. What do you think ?

I will also think about the interesting plots that we could do to illustrate this case, for example vertical crosssection of potential vorticity.

Notes

SCM exercises - sensitvity of the model to changing physics. Focus on convection, initiation of deep convection. Stochastic physics, impact on convection? impact of convective scheme?

Do we want the students to run OpenIFS? - probably not enough time / resources

Interested in stochastic physics / ensemble methods.

Can we get observations from HyMEX to add to the metview exercises?

Focus on ensemble modelling and predictability.

Try to include some Hymex observations in metview VM?

Some questions to include:

  • how to weight extreme events in the ensemble?
  • what's the best way of doing ensembles if dont' want to miss extremes?

Travel & local arrangements

ENM is approx 20mins by car from the airport.




 

 

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