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Created by
Linus Magnusson, last updated on Feb 06, 2026
5 minute read
Material from: Linus, David, ..
1. Overview
On 20 January the storm Harry impacted the southern-central Mediterranean with extreme rainfall and waves.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cyclone-harry-southern-italy-between-extreme-disyf/
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
Here we will focus on 24-hour maximum significant wave height on 20 January in a 0.5x0.5 degree box south-east of Sicily (centred on 36.2N, 15.3E).
We will also evaluate the 24-hour precipitation on 20 January in a box on Sicily (37.5N, 15E)
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 18 January 00UTC to 22 January 00UTC, every 12th hour
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 14 January to 23 January, every 24 hour.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
3. Forecasts
3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv2.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI for 24-hour maximum significant wave height valid 20 January.
The plots below show the EFI for 24-hour precipitation valid 20 January.
Forecast Evolution plot
The evolution plot below shows the forecasts for maximum significant wave height on 20 January inside the box south-east of Sicily. For AIFS version 2 (orange) is used as that version is the first with wave forecasts.
The evolution plot below shows the forecasts for precipitation on 20 January inside the box on Sicily outlined in the observation plot below.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts