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Created by
Linus Magnusson, last updated on Oct 26, 2026
5 minute read
Material from: Linus, Fernando
1. Overview
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
The evaluation will focus on the 2-day precipitation between 19 October 06UTC and 21 October 06UTC for a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on 43.6N, 5.1E near Salon-de-Provence in southern France.
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 17 October 00UTC to 21 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show z500 and T850 from 13 October to 21 October 00UTC, every 24 hour.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
3. Forecasts
3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
Hybrid Deterministic
Hybrid ENS perturbed member 1
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI for 3-day precipitation for 19 October 00UTC to 22 October 00UTC, from different initial dates (19 October back to 13 October).
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 2-day precipitation (19 October 06UTC - 21 October 06UTC) for the box near Salon-de-Provence defined in Section 2.1.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts