Blog

ECMWF informed all ecCharts users on the latest update to this service.

Several new layers for ENS, ENS Extended and HRES have been added and other improvements made.

Full details of this update are available at ecCharts updates - November 2017

On the afternoon of November 1st ECMWF uncovered a technical problem that had been affecting the integrity of the some probability charts on the ECMWF web site (ecCharts output was not affected). This had happened for runs from all data times from 23rd October 12UTC.

The charts affected were the clickable probability charts from the ensemble (ENS), for max wind gust and for total precipitation.

On some charts the corruption was clear. On others it was not. Users must assume that all charts in these categories, for all areas, were incorrect.

We sincerely apologise to all users for this issue, which was discovered on the afternoon of 1st November. Following discovery we acted swiftly to rectify the problem and all output beginning with the 00UTC 2nd November runs is correct again.

During today (2nd November) ECMWF will be systematically over-writing all the corrupted charts, from the earlier data times, with corrected versions. We expect that this process will have completed by about 18UTC.

eLearning at ECMWF

To meet the training needs of our Member and Co-operating States, ECMWF started at the beginning of 2017 a project aimed at producing a set of publicly available eLearning modules, initially on foundational material for our numerical weather prediction, software and product courses. eLearning has a number of potential benefits: it can expand the reach of training, and it can give learners flexibility in terms of when, where and how they want to learn. It is a flexible and student-driven kind of learning that relies on effective multimedia resources. It supports diverse learning styles and can complement traditional classroom teaching. eLearning leverages technology to create and design engaging and effective multimedia resources.

The new eLearning modules provide the background knowledge on which face-to-face courses at ECMWF can build. This will enable us to spend the course time on more complex material or to shorten training events to reduce costs for Member States. Other initiatives such as WMO Global Campus and future EUMETNET training programmes may also find the new ECMWF eLearning modules useful as resources to make available to their member states.

The modules are being created in collaboration with instructional designers who are working with ECMWF experts. The instructional design methodology used it that set  out by Mayes & de Freitas (2004), which assumes that information is processed through two channels (auditory and visual) of limited capacity. In order to minimise overload, the learner filters, selects, organises and integrates the information presented in the resources. These assumptions and learning principles are guiding the creation of our eLearning modules.

A set of online modules covering NWP topics, software, ECMWF meteorological archive and Metview (visualisation) is now publicly available on ECMWF website!

Please visit (and forward the link to colleagues):

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/en/learning/education-material/elearning-online-resources

More modules will be added in the following months.  We hope you find these resources useful!


Anna

ECMWF is planning to introduce a new upgrade of the CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) real-time data assimilation and forecasting system on 26 September 2017.
This upgrade includes various improvements of the aerosol module as well as improvements to the UV forecasts. In addition, some interactions between the aerosol and chemistry schemes have been introduced. More information can be found at https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/implementation-ifs-cycle-43r3cams.

The new system has been running for some months now and the CAMS Validation team has assessed the output to ensure the quality of the analyses and forecasts. The main conclusions are: the new model configuration is an improvement as far as aerosols are concerned. Tropospheric ozone results for the current operational system and the new system generally are very comparable, apart from a wintertime negative high-latitude bias (about 2-5 ppb) compared to the current operational version. In spring, ozone values in the operational system and the new system are very similar. The other trace gas concentrations (CO, NO2, HCHO) show minor differences. The validation report is available from the CAMS web site.

Users wanting to access the output from the current test system can find the data from 1 June 2017 onward directly in MARS or through our Web API service as described here: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/COPSRV/Accessing+CAMS+43r3+test+data.


For users, who are registered to our operational ftp server, we now also provide daily global test data in the CAMS_GLOBAL_TEST and CAMS_EUROPE_BC_TEST directories.

For any questions, please contact the CAMS Service Desk at copernicus-support@ecmwf.int.

The fifth generation of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system, in short SEAS5, will be introduced in the autumn of 2017, replacing System 4, which was released in 2011.

SEAS5 includes updated versions of the atmospheric (IFS) and interactive ocean (NEMO) models and adds the interactive sea ice model LIM2. The IFS uses a new grid and horizontal resolution has been increased (details below). Ocean horizontal and vertical resolution have also been increased.  Ocean and land initial conditions have been updated, and the re-forecast ensemble size has been increased from 15 to 25. While re-forecasts span 1981 to 2016, the re-forecast period used to calibrate the forecasts when creating products will use the more recent period 1993 to 2016. SEAS5 highlights include a marked improvement in SST drift, especially in the tropical Pacific, and improvements in the prediction skill of Arctic sea ice.

For more detailed information and timetable visit Implementation of Seasonal Forecast SEAS5

 

On Friday 9 June ECMWF had a delay for 12z HRES forecast.  This was the result of a failure in the Pressure Bias correction scheme applied to conventional surface observations.  To minimize any further delays the scheme was temporarily turned off, until a problem with some specific observations was identified.  These observations were then excluded and operations continued with the  scheme turned back on Sunday morning starting from the 06z run.

During the period the bias correction scheme was switched off, more surface pressure observations than normal ware rejected by the data assimilation and we also found a degraded fit of the analysis to the (non-bias corrected) observations. We have now reached the point when we can verify the affected forecasts, and although there maybe local degradations we do not see any significant impact in the hemispheric forecast scores currently.

Dear colleagues,
In my previous email dated 6 April, I advised that we were planning to make a new charts catalogue the default on our web site on the 26 April.

This was not possible due to scheduling of other work on our web sites, and I would like to announce that we are now going to make the new charts catalogue the default on 3rd May 2017.

At this time we are not aware of any problems with the new charts catalogue but if you do have any further feedback we are still very happy to receive it via our contact us page.

For details on this change please refer to my previous email (attached below for reference).

Umberto Modigliani

========================================================================

A beta version of the new charts catalogue has been released. In this new version we have:

  • merged the charts in a single catalogue that can be browsed through facets
  • reviewed the medium range charts
    • charts are generated from native data resolution
    • high resolution charts are made available based on ECMWF dissemination schedule
    • their size has been increased and more geographical domains are available
    • with a single click you can now access the meteograms at any point (where applicable).

We very much welcome your feedback

 

A beta version of the new charts catalogue has been released. In this new version we have:

  • merged the charts in a single catalogue that can be browsed through facets
  • reviewed the medium range charts
    • charts are generated from native data resolution
    • high resolution charts are made available based on ECMWF dissemination schedule
    • their size has been increased and more geographical domains are available
    • with a single click you can now access the meteograms at any point (where applicable).

We very much welcome your feedback

 

ECMWF new model cycle (IFS cycle 43r3) will contain a number of meteorological changes (provisional implementation date 20th June 2017):

Assimilation

    • Improved humidity background error variances directly from the EDA like for all other variables.
    • Revised wavelet filtering of background error variances and revised quality control of drop-sonde wind observations in 4DVAR to improve tropical cyclone structures.

Observations

    • Increased use of microwave humidity sounding data by adding new sensors (SAPHIR, GMI 183 GHz channels).
    • Activation of 118 GHz channels over land from MWHS-2 instrument on-board FY-3C.
    • Harmonised data usage over land and sea-ice for microwave sounders (adding MHS channel 4 over snow, adding some ATMS channels, lower observation errors for MHS data over land).
    • Improved screening of infrared observations for anomalously high atmospheric concentrations of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) from wildfires.
    • Improved quality control for radio occultation observations and radiosonde data.

Model

    • New, more efficient radiation scheme with reduced noise and more accurate longwave radiation transfer calculation.
    • New aerosol climatology based on ‘tuned’ CAMS aerosol re-analysis including dependence on relative humidity.
    • Increased super-cooled liquid water at colder temperatures (down to -38C) from the convection scheme.
    • Visibility calculation changed to use ‘tuned’ CAMS aerosol climatology.

For more detailed information and timescale visit Implementation of IFS cycle 43r3

Dear Colleagues,

I am pleased to inform you that, in response to user requirements, ECMWF will be bringing forward the dissemination of the ENS and WAM ENS
products by 40 minutes. The earlier dissemination schedule will also
apply to the ENS products in the Boundary Conditions Optional Programme.

There will be no changes to the dissemination schedule for the other
ECMWF product datasets.

You can find the new dissemination schedule at:

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/data-delivery/dissemination-schedule

The implementation of this change is planned for 7 March 2017. The first operational run delivered using the new dissemination schedule will be the 06 UTC forecast in the Boundary Conditions Optional Programme followed by the 12 UTC main forecast run.

This change is part of ECMWF's strategic effort to facilitate the access and promote the use of ensemble based forecast products.


Best regards

Florian Pappenberger
Director of Forecasts, ECMWF

Dear colleagues,


We are planning to introduce a new upgrade of the CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) real-time data assimilation and forecasting system on 24 January 2017. This upgrade includes various improvements of the aerosol module as well as the introduction of two new satellite instruments (OMPS and PMAp) in the data assimilation. More information can be found at http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/implementation-ifs-cycle-43r1cams

We have been running the new system for some months now and the CAMS Validation team has assessed the output to ensure the quality of the analyses and forecasts. The validation report is available from the CAMS web site.
 
Users wanting to access the output from the current e-suite test system can find the data from 2 October 2016 onwards directly on MARS or through our WebAPI service as described here: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/COPSRV/Accessing+CAMS+43r1+test+data

For users, who are registered to our operational ftp server, we now also provide daily global test data in the CAMS_NREALTIME_TEST and CAMS_NREALTIME_BC_TEST directories. 


For any questions, please contact the Copernicus User Support Section at copernicus-support@ecmwf.int.
 
Best regards,

Florian Pappenberger
Director of Forecasts

Dear Colleagues,

 

This is to confirm the implementation of IFS cycle 43r1 in operations yesterday, Tuesday 22 November 2016.

 

The monthly forecast extension to the ensemble will be run with the new

IFS cycle for the first time on Thursday 24 November 2016.

 

We would like to thank all users for their efforts to prepare their

systems for the change by using our test datasets.

 

Best regards,

 

Florian Pappenberger

Director of Forecasts, ECMWF

 

Dear Colleagues,

This is a final reminder that ECMWF's IFS will be upgraded to cycle 43r1 on Tuesday 22 November 2016.

For details of the change see

Implementation of IFS Cycle 43r1

The first operational run using the new cycle will be the 06 UTC
analysis and forecast in the Boundary Conditions Optional Programme on
22 November followed by the 12 UTC main assimilation and forecast. The
monthly forecast extension to the ensemble will be run with the new IFS
cycle for the first time the following Thursday 24 November 2016.

In order to manage the transition, changes to dissemination requirements
will be suspended from 21 November 2016 09:00 UTC to 22 November 2016
09:00 UTC.

Further information and advice regarding the upgrade can be obtained
from User Support.

Best regards,

Prof. Florian Pappenberger
Director of Forecasts, ECMWF

Dear Colleagues,

Further to my email sent on 22 Sept (see below), I am pleased to inform you that ECMWF is making
good progress with the forthcoming implementation of the 43r1 Cycle of the Integrated
Forecasting System (IFS). The Cycle is now entering the release candidate phase.
Test data is available via dissemination and will also be available via ecCharts shortly. 
Details of the meteorological and technical changes in this cycle, together with information
about the forecast performance (including scorecard) can be found on the web page at

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+Cycle+43r1

Some of the changes may require user action. See the section under Data Access for details
about hourly ENS outputs.

The implementation is planned for 22 November 2016. We will contact you closer to that date to
confirm the implementation.

Best regards

Florian Pappenberger
Director of Forecasts, ECMWF

 

 

=============================================================

Dear Colleagues,

ECMWF is preparing for the forthcoming implementation of the 43r1
version of the integrated forecasting system (IFS).

IFS Cycle 43r1 is an upgrade with many scientific contributions,
including changes in data assimilation (both in the EDA and the 4DVAR),
in the use of observations and in modelling.  In addition, several new
model output parameters are implemented, including new cloud and
freezing diagnostics, a new direct-beam solar radiation diagnostic and
new significant wave height parameters at different period ranges to
help with the detection of low-frequency ocean wave energy.

With this cycle upgrade, the medium-range ensemble and its monthly
extension see a major upgrade in the dynamical ocean model (NEMO): the
resolution is increased to 0.25 degrees and 75 layers.  Furthermore, an
interactive sea-ice model (LIM2) is implemented.

The implementation is planned for 22 November 2016, subject to the
progress of ongoing testing.

A dedicated information web page for this change has been prepared and
is available at:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+Cycle+43r1

Details of the meteorological and technical changes in this cycle,
together with information about the forecast performance (including
scorecard) and access to test data both in MARS and dissemination, will
be provided on the web page.

Users are reminded that they can "watch" the web page to obtain
notification of further updates.  A date of the "next expected update"
will also be maintained in the page.

Best regards

Prof. Florian Pappenberger
Director of Forecasts, ECMWF

Dear Colleagues,

ECMWF is preparing for the forthcoming implementation of the 43r1
version of the integrated forecasting system (IFS).

IFS Cycle 43r1 is an upgrade with many scientific contributions,
including changes in data assimilation (both in the EDA and the 4DVAR),
in the use of observations and in modelling.  In addition, several new
model output parameters are implemented, including new cloud and
freezing diagnostics, a new direct-beam solar radiation diagnostic and
new significant wave height parameters at different period ranges to
help with the detection of low-frequency ocean wave energy.

With this cycle upgrade, the medium-range ensemble and its monthly
extension see a major upgrade in the dynamical ocean model (NEMO): the
resolution is increased to 0.25 degrees and 75 layers.  Furthermore, an
interactive sea-ice model (LIM2) is implemented.

The implementation is planned for 22 November 2016, subject to the
progress of ongoing testing.

A dedicated information web page for this change has been prepared and
is available at:

Implementation of IFS Cycle 43r1

Details of the meteorological and technical changes in this cycle,
together with information about the forecast performance (including
scorecard) and access to test data both in MARS and dissemination, will
be provided on the web page.

Users are reminded that they can "watch" the web page to obtain
notification of further updates.  A date of the "next expected update"
will also be maintained in the page.

Best regards

Prof. Florian Pappenberger
Director of Forecasts, ECMWF