On Tuesday 18th May ECMWF will release to users its new-look cyclone database products (products that feature front and cyclone locations and cyclone track information), following a collaborative initiative involving Met Office scientists. The changes are explained on this page in the Forecast User Guide.
The new IFS Cycle 47r2 has been successfully implemented with the 06 UTC run on 11 May 2021. The key improvements introduced with this upgrade, the change to single precision in the HRES and ENS systems and the increased vertical resolution of ENS, are summarised in Forecast upgrade innovates on single precision and ensemble resolution. Furthermore, new Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles are also available as WMO essential products, including graphical products. More details can be found on the implementation page for IFS Cycle 47r2.
We hope you will benefit from our enhanced forecast products. Please let us have any feedback via our Support Portal.
The new Cycle 47r2 test system has now been running as release candidate in near real-time since 9th February, on track for implementation on 11 May 2021. Cycle 47r2 layers in ecCharts and ENS meteograms will become available on 6 April. The recommended versions of ECMWF software packages to handle 47r2 data have now also been announced.
In a final webinar on
16th April 2021 at 8:00 UTC - join the webinar
Director of Forecasts Florian Pappenberger will present the latest model verification, new Tropical Cyclone tracks, and technical aspects like the access to test data and the handling of the increase of ENS model levels in dissemination. As usual, a recording of this webinar will be made available.
Please mark the webinar date in your calendar and keep watching the implementation page for more details and any further updates!
The new IFS model cycle which includes single precision for HRES and ENS and (with the computational savings made) an increase from 91 to 137 levels in the ENS forecast, is progressing well. Next week (9th February 2021) users will be able to access test data. A week later we will be running a Q&A session for those users who make use of ENS model level data.
Updates to the BUFR templates are included in the new cycle and we encourage users to test their decoding software. Moreover, Tropical Cyclone products from the 06 and 18 UTC cycles will be available as WMO essential.
Please visit the implementation page for details on how to access test data, the new BUFR template, the Tropical Cyclone products, model performance etc. at
Implementation of IFS Cycle 47r2
ECMWF informed all ecCharts users on the latest update to this service.
The updates include the ecCharts sharing functionality, a number of layers for ENS and extending range cumulative distribution functions (CDF) for temperature and precipitation.
Full details of this update are available at ecCharts updates - November 2020
Director of Research Andy Brown will introduce the new IFS model cycle (47r2) and its performance in the following two webinars:
- 2nd December 2020 at 14:30 UTC: Join the webinar
- 15th December 2020 at 08:30 UTC: Join the webinar (repeat)
Do not forget to add one of the dates to your calendar!
Additional details on the cycle and any new updates are available at Implementation of IFS Cycle 47r2.
A further webinar is planned for April 2021 and details on how to join will be provided closer to the event.
We are working on the new model upgrade (IFS cycle 47r2), expected to be the last cycle before ECMWF's computing centre is moving to Bologna. The upgrade includes single-precision for ENS (forecast up to day 46 and hindcast) and HRES (forecast) model. Moreover, the number of ENS model levels will be increased to 137 (currently 91) to bring ENS in line with the vertical resolution of HRES. A summary of the meteorological performance will be made available in November. We have scheduled webinars to introduce the cycle, two in December and one just before the implementation, planned for May 2021.
More details are available at Implementation of IFS Cycle 47r2.
Back in June ECMWF implemented a substantial upgrade of its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). IFS Cycle 47r1 included changes in the forecast model and in the data assimilation system. The upgrade has had a small positive impact on forecast skill in medium-range and extended-range forecasts in the troposphere and a large positive impact on analyses and forecasts in the stratosphere.
We are pleased to announce that the full IFS Cycle 47r1 documentation is now available.
Following ECMWF Council decision in June 2020, we are pleased to announce the availability of Tropical Cyclone trajectories for the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles in test mode. For further details see Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles : Test Products
Moreover, WMO essential products (publicly available) and additional products (available to NMHS of WMO countries) from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles are available. Please check the products description and download instructions.
Also, four new parameters, previously available via the ACMAD data feed, will now be available as WMO additional products:
Short Name | Long Name |
TCWV | Total column water vapour |
SP | Surface pressure |
STL1 | Soil temperature level 1 |
SKT | Skin temperature |
Please note that the ACMAD data feed will be discontinued from the DCPC interface on the 13th January 2021 (12UTC run)
Implementation of IFS cycle 47r1 is now successfully completed. The first forecast of the new cycle was the 06UTC on 30th June 2020. A description of the new IFS cycle, key improvements and new products are available on our website ‘IFS upgrade greatly improves forecasts in the stratosphere’
We would like to take this opportunity to make you aware of our future plans for the next model upgrade which will see the introduction of single precision forecasts. More information about single precision is available in the following article ‘Progress in using single precision in the IFS’ . At this stage we are not in a position to give a firm date, but we are working towards implementation in Q1 2021.
Stay tuned!
On 18 June Tim Hewson gave a webinar related to point rainfall. This included many examples of how the (experimental) point rainfall products, which went live in ecCharts in April 2019, can be used by forecasters to improve their forecasts. A recording is now available online:
http://tiny.cc/ecPoint-seminar
The talk abstract can be accessed here: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/learning/seminars
More guidance for forecasters is available in the Forecast User Guide: Point Rainfall
New Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) for the extended-range forecasts are available on ecCharts.
They display 7-day anomalies for 2-metre temperature and total precipitation for each location across the Globe. Each CDF plot displays the latest forecast along with the corresponding Extended Range Model climate (ERM-climate), and the previous extended range ensemble forecasts valid for the same 7-day period. This product is updated twice a week, every Monday and Thursday with the new runs of the extended-range forecast.
Details about all available forecast steps and the plot design can be found in the Forecast User Guide: Extended Range CDFs
As we are getting closer to run the 47r1 test system in near real-time, additional information on the new model is available at Implementation of IFS Cycle 47r1.
The HRES and ENS performance can now be assessed through interactive scorecards. Moreover, we have added information on the new parameters and on the improvements to the Convective INhibition (CIN), providing better guidance for initiation of convection/thunderstorm activity, and on the revised formulation of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy).
The recommended software versions to handle the data are also available.
Please add to your calendar the date for the webinar by Director of Forecasts Florian Pappenberger on the model assessment, new and improved parameters products and the access to test data for the new cycle:
- 27th May 2020 at 8:30 UTC - join the webinar
- 28th May 2020 at 14:30 UTC - join the webinar (repeat)
The new model cycle brings improvements throughout the troposphere in the order of 0.5% in extra-tropical upper-air forecasts. The improvements are most apparent in the ENS scores, both against own analysis and against observations. More details on its performance are available at Implementation of IFS Cycle 47r1.
Do not forget to add to our your calendar one of the two first webinars when Director of Research Andy Brown will explain the model changes and how they will improve forecasts:
- 21 April 2020 at 8:30 (UTC). Join the webinar
- 22 April 2020 at 14:30 (UTC). Join the webinar (repeat)
Further webinars are planned for 27 May at 8:30 UTC and 28 May at 14:30 UTC with a focus on verification, technical access to the test data, and new parameters and products. Details on how to join will be provided closer to the events.
The new IFS Cycle 47r1 will be implemented on 30 June 2020.
This cycle includes changes in the treatment of observations, improvements in the data assimilation and to the model. Quintic vertical interpolation in the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme has been introduced as well as the inclusion of a better surface albedo climatology making use of more data from the MODIS instrument. Further information on this new cycle is available at Implementation of IFS Cycle 47r1.
Please note that new metrics of Tropical Cyclone (TC) “size” will be made available to supplement the existing forecasts of TC track and intensity. We encourage users of these BUFR data to test their decoding software. For technical information see New Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii product.
Two webinars to introduce the model cycle have been organised:
- 21 April 2020 at 08:30 (UTC) - Join the webinar
- 22 April 2020 at 14:30 (UTC) - Join the webinar
Two additional webinars will take place at the end of May.