This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the ASO 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 1 forecasts initialized between Thursday 13th August 2026 and Thursday 13th August 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
ASO 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania Arcana 1 ArcanaSphericalBeta 1 0.236 0.421 0.042 0.051 0.139 -0.043 0.164 0.096 0.37 0.37 0.115 0.436 Arcana 1 ArcanaSpherical 2 0.235 0.427 0.044 -0.008 0.119 -0.015 0.14 0.077 0.344 0.378 0.132 0.409 Arcana 1 ArcanaSphericalv2 17 0.188 0.351 0.022 0.023 0.08 -0.023 0.123 0.059 0.24 0.287 0.074 0.368 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 3 0.234 0.429 0.034 0.023 0.088 0.005 0.116 0.089 0.372 0.386 0.104 0.414 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 4 0.231 0.432 0.024 0.022 0.086 -0.014 0.121 0.07 0.398 0.366 0.104 0.433 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 8 0.209 0.408 0.005 -0.034 0.067 -0.026 0.092 0.074 0.361 0.352 0.081 0.35 LP 3 LPM 5 0.226 0.441 0.019 0.003 0.055 -0.075 0.162 0.018 0.455 0.307 0.154 0.414 VD 4 SPQR 6 0.223 0.416 0.037 0.032 0.084 -0.038 0.129 0.063 0.423 0.297 0.148 0.399 VD 4 SPQRnow 7 0.222 0.414 0.045 0.027 0.085 -0.047 0.136 0.071 0.423 0.303 0.144 0.393 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunEnsemble 9 0.208 0.411 0.014 -0.015 0.041 -0.079 0.131 0.015 0.44 0.271 0.144 0.359 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunWeather 11 0.207 0.403 0.024 -0.005 0.07 -0.096 0.158 0.017 0.431 0.271 0.141 0.373 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunLDM 12 0.205 0.403 0.015 -0.013 0.04 -0.073 0.128 0.025 0.423 0.266 0.136 0.361 CLINT 6 CLINTDD 10 0.207 0.416 0.014 -0.069 0.038 -0.092 0.169 -0.001 0.397 0.302 0.142 0.375 CLINT 6 CLINTMF 13 0.201 0.412 0.007 -0.084 0.029 -0.1 0.163 -0.014 0.403 0.294 0.143 0.35 CLINT 6 CLINTSE 16 0.189 0.421 -0.008 -0.133 0.008 -0.176 0.163 -0.064 0.413 0.316 0.132 0.344 AIFS 7 AIFSthalassa 14 0.19 0.403 -0.041 0.09 -0.002 -0.082 0.022 -0.044 0.409 0.308 0.078 0.448 AIFS 7 AIFSgaia 15 0.19 0.363 -0.034 0.121 0.019 0.029 0.057 -0.001 0.409 0.28 0.037 0.374 AIFS 7 AIFShera 23 0.173 0.38 -0.067 0.054 0.004 -0.058 0.002 -0.111 0.396 0.321 0.053 0.403 SBUHybrid 8 HybridStillDeveloping 18 0.186 0.36 0.036 0.003 -0.02 -0.054 0.073 0.062 0.319 0.266 0.095 0.405 SBUHybrid 8 HybridPPx 25 0.158 0.319 0.019 -0.009 -0.021 -0.075 0.04 0.034 0.283 0.214 0.065 0.342 SBUHybrid 8 HybridAC 26 0.149 0.306 0.024 -0.042 -0.019 -0.074 0.061 0.031 0.279 0.256 0.033 0.315 Fahamu 9 fp16FahamuAIFSv2 19 0.186 0.356 0.015 0.064 0.082 -0.039 0.104 0.07 0.38 0.211 0.09 0.386 NMCBridge 10 multical 20 0.18 0.391 -0.024 -0.019 -0.012 -0.103 0.098 -0.04 0.394 0.266 0.091 0.423 NMCBridge 10 QuintCal 21 0.18 0.377 0.001 -0.01 -0.019 -0.1 0.1 -0.021 0.38 0.252 0.122 0.348 NMCBridge 10 shrinkcal 22 0.179 0.375 0.001 -0.01 -0.019 -0.099 0.101 -0.021 0.377 0.251 0.122 0.348
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania VD 1 SPQRnow 1 0.227 0.367 0.096 0.13 0.051 0.12 0.088 0.204 0.317 0.308 0.179 0.253 VD 1 SPQR 2 0.222 0.363 0.089 0.13 0.039 0.115 0.075 0.197 0.32 0.3 0.171 0.255 Arcana 2 ArcanaSphericalv2 3 0.219 0.367 0.061 0.088 0.013 0.137 0.043 0.228 0.24 0.353 0.119 0.289 Arcana 2 ArcanaSpherical 6 0.204 0.35 0.083 0.03 0.03 0.105 0.048 0.231 0.236 0.365 0.123 0.257 Arcana 2 ArcanaSphericalBeta 11 0.196 0.347 0.052 0.059 -0.012 0.126 0.02 0.203 0.252 0.342 0.094 0.254 LP 3 LPM 4 0.216 0.366 0.082 0.116 0.008 0.112 0.033 0.204 0.336 0.315 0.139 0.269 Fahamu 4 fp16FahamuAIFSv2 5 0.214 0.359 0.127 0.058 -0.099 0.1 0.051 0.244 0.283 0.268 0.168 0.313 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunWeather 7 0.201 0.34 0.089 0.109 -0.018 0.103 0.056 0.203 0.297 0.267 0.148 0.248 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunEnsemble 8 0.201 0.337 0.07 0.134 0.006 0.092 0.047 0.202 0.309 0.279 0.134 0.238 MetaCarbon3060 5 PuyunLDM 12 0.194 0.325 0.069 0.11 0.008 0.085 0.048 0.19 0.275 0.272 0.139 0.242 CLINT 6 CLINTDD 9 0.198 0.331 0.079 0.086 0.029 0.109 0.068 0.196 0.311 0.285 0.144 0.222 CLINT 6 CLINTMF 10 0.198 0.331 0.076 0.098 0.024 0.109 0.061 0.205 0.31 0.287 0.133 0.221 CLINT 6 CLINTSE 22 0.174 0.307 0.057 0.061 -0.011 0.117 0.051 0.16 0.286 0.273 0.124 0.185 CMAandFDU 7 FengshunHybrid 13 0.19 0.339 0.037 0.08 0.049 0.062 0.033 0.175 0.197 0.345 0.114 0.275 CMAandFDU 7 FengshunAdjust 15 0.181 0.323 0.038 0.064 0.044 0.06 0.026 0.166 0.162 0.33 0.109 0.274 CMAandFDU 7 Fengshun 24 0.163 0.299 0.009 0.08 0.04 0.056 0.035 0.13 0.19 0.313 0.093 0.17 AIFS 8 AIFShera 14 0.188 0.346 -0.001 0.094 0.025 0.086 0.015 0.118 0.238 0.344 0.103 0.265 AIFS 8 AIFSthalassa 16 0.18 0.329 0.016 0.053 0.0 0.087 -0.009 0.104 0.216 0.296 0.135 0.266 AIFS 8 AIFSgaia 20 0.176 0.305 -0.007 0.047 0.062 0.15 0.03 0.09 0.236 0.3 0.094 0.188 NMCBridge 9 QuintCal 17 0.177 0.307 0.052 0.095 0.005 0.061 0.051 0.15 0.24 0.282 0.136 0.218 NMCBridge 9 shrinkcal 19 0.176 0.306 0.052 0.095 0.006 0.061 0.052 0.149 0.233 0.279 0.137 0.219 NMCBridge 9 multical 21 0.175 0.306 0.062 0.08 0.037 0.016 0.054 0.146 0.219 0.274 0.142 0.243 SBUHybrid 10 HybridStillDeveloping 18 0.176 0.298 0.055 0.035 0.019 0.089 0.008 0.113 0.146 0.284 0.137 0.248 SBUHybrid 10 HybridPPx 23 0.166 0.288 0.035 0.037 0.006 0.076 -0.017 0.119 0.132 0.331 0.104 0.174 SBUHybrid 10 HybridAC 25 0.157 0.275 0.025 0.032 0.01 0.084 -0.038 0.133 0.117 0.335 0.049 0.151
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated on Sept 19, 2026
8 minute read
