Scorecard for IFS cycle 38r2

Comparison of scores of model cycle 38r2 (combination of research experiments and the current e-suite) and cycle 38r1 (the current operational model) verified by the respective analyses or radiosonde observations at 00UTC for combined periods from 1 January 2012 to 31 March 2012 and from 1 June 2012 to 23 April 2013.

Score card provides a quick visual overview over the performance of the experiment scores compared to control. It is a simplified summary of verify error plots of various domains, scores, parameters etc.

Each error plot is converted into a sequence of symbols (e.g. ▼▾▾░░░░▴▲▲) where each symbol indicates for given time step whether or not the experiment is significantly better or worse than the control.

Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)

▲ Cy38r2 far better than Cy38r1 statistically significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
▴ Cy38r2 better than Cy38r1 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
░ Cy38r2 better than Cy38r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
░ not really any difference between Cy38r2 and Cy38r1
░ Cy38r2 worse than Cy38r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
▾ Cy38r2 worse than Cy38r1 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
▼ Cy38r2 far worse than Cy38r1 statistically significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)

Statistical significance evaluated by paired t-test for 95% significance level.