This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the DJF 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 4 forecasts initialized between Thursday 13th November 2025 and Thursday 4th December 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
DJF 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.082 0.093 0.096 0.07 0.03 0.071 0.037 0.093 0.012 0.146 0.108 0.011 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.081 0.084 0.105 0.075 0.034 0.081 0.042 0.096 0.012 0.144 0.108 0.001 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 3 0.066 0.061 0.091 0.029 0.046 0.058 0.011 0.116 -0.025 0.112 0.091 -0.001 AIFS 2 AIFSthalassa 4 0.061 0.029 0.106 0.06 0.094 0.057 0.034 0.108 -0.029 0.035 0.121 0.027 AIFS 2 AIFSgaia 6 0.06 0.035 0.117 0.017 0.08 0.037 0.034 0.137 -0.036 0.086 0.106 -0.032 AIFS 2 AIFShera 7 0.052 0.014 0.111 -0.007 0.084 0.088 0.032 0.125 -0.062 0.086 0.105 -0.089 LP 3 LPM 5 0.061 0.058 0.092 0.033 0.038 0.07 -0.008 0.125 -0.023 0.121 0.07 -0.005 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunHybrid 8 0.032 0.017 0.064 -0.005 0.056 0.04 0.017 0.048 -0.029 0.086 0.082 -0.075 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunAdjust 10 0.014 0.012 0.038 -0.017 0.029 -0.024 0.018 0.011 -0.025 0.077 0.057 -0.07 CMAandFDU 4 Fengshun 11 0.009 -0.012 0.05 -0.005 0.04 -0.06 0.042 -0.017 -0.007 0.077 0.062 -0.082 UWAtmosNVIDIA 5 DLESyMS2Sv1 9 0.019 0.016 0.028 0.03 0.001 0.032 -0.012 0.007 -0.011 0.045 0.047 -0.018 JR 6 slowMamba 12 0.007 -0.008 0.037 0.007 0.047 -0.014 -0.004 0.019 -0.033 0.063 0.037 -0.114 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 13 0.006 0.011 0.02 0.006 0.006 -0.059 0.021 -0.015 -0.015 0.039 0.042 -0.057 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 22 -0.029 -0.041 -0.013 -0.03 -0.035 -0.005 -0.012 -0.033 -0.1 -0.033 -0.008 -0.06 IgnisNeuralis42 8 GCast42 14 0.004 0.024 -0.005 -0.015 -0.02 -0.023 0.02 -0.032 -0.005 0.044 0.025 -0.042 CelestScience 9 Tellus 15 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguS2SEasyUQ 15 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguPlusPlus 15 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguParametricPrediction 15 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.057 0.058 0.08 0.035 0.025 0.054 0.024 0.067 0.003 0.113 0.091 -0.044 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.056 0.056 0.08 0.036 0.03 0.058 0.022 0.068 0.004 0.119 0.088 -0.046 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 3 0.044 0.022 0.093 -0.003 0.036 0.036 0.026 0.095 -0.036 0.052 0.09 -0.071 LP 2 LPM 4 0.035 0.024 0.071 0.005 0.041 0.03 0.002 0.078 0.002 0.069 0.066 -0.075 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 5 0.02 -0.024 0.1 -0.008 0.05 0.018 0.06 0.094 -0.054 0.052 0.078 -0.113 AIFS 3 AIFShera 7 0.013 -0.033 0.087 -0.032 0.063 0.042 0.067 0.06 -0.065 0.06 0.08 -0.145 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 20 -0.022 -0.104 0.069 -0.016 0.05 0.013 0.027 0.069 -0.164 -0.062 0.051 -0.109 CliMA 4 CliMAWeather2 6 0.015 0.004 0.031 0.011 -0.004 0.044 0.027 0.008 -0.042 0.008 0.043 0.006 CliMA 4 CliMAWeather 21 -0.033 -0.049 -0.009 -0.042 -0.051 0.03 -0.001 -0.047 -0.11 -0.017 -0.009 -0.039 IgnisNeuralis42 5 GCast42 8 0.009 0.023 -0.006 0.006 -0.032 0.005 -0.024 -0.024 0.009 0.034 0.017 -0.024 CMAandFDU 6 FengshunHybrid 9 0.001 -0.039 0.044 -0.023 0.032 0.06 0.01 0.029 -0.073 0.021 0.038 -0.109 CMAandFDU 6 FengshunAdjust 15 -0.006 -0.036 0.038 -0.026 0.017 0.019 0.003 0.014 -0.03 0.043 0.036 -0.127 CMAandFDU 6 Fengshun 16 -0.009 -0.028 0.011 -0.023 0.037 -0.029 -0.038 -0.039 -0.036 -0.008 0.062 -0.072 CelestScience 7 Tellus 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 7 KanguS2SEasyUQ 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 7 KanguPlusPlus 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 7 KanguParametricPrediction 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 14 -0.003 -0.02 0.036 0.002 -0.031 0.008 0.0 0.019 -0.028 0.03 0.017 -0.064 scienceAI 10 zephyr 17 -0.009 -0.034 0.012 0.011 0.007 0.034 0.01 0.012 -0.027 -0.022 -0.007 -0.065 scienceAI 10 findforecast 18 -0.009 -0.017 0.007 -0.005 -0.021 -0.005 -0.032 -0.002 -0.007 -0.022 -0.013 -0.041 scienceAI 10 ngcm 23 -0.038 -0.074 0.006 0.001 0.005 -0.069 0.002 -0.008 -0.033 -0.059 -0.029 -0.068
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
