This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the DJF 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 10 forecasts initialized between Thursday 13th November 2025 and Thursday 15th January 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
DJF 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.073 0.096 0.075 0.029 0.049 0.03 0.032 0.113 0.008 0.1 0.071 0.039 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.061 0.075 0.077 0.025 0.053 0.012 0.03 0.111 -0.006 0.097 0.063 0.03 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 5 0.044 0.039 0.069 -0.002 0.064 0.018 0.035 0.124 -0.046 0.015 0.037 0.019 LP 2 LPM 3 0.056 0.071 0.072 -0.004 0.069 0.004 0.035 0.127 -0.034 0.075 0.045 0.032 AIFS 3 AIFShera 4 0.053 0.045 0.088 -0.008 0.088 0.016 0.09 0.111 -0.057 0.044 0.07 0.022 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 7 0.034 0.032 0.069 0.004 0.037 -0.012 0.012 0.121 -0.072 0.022 0.036 0.035 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 8 0.026 0.008 0.057 0.014 0.073 0.001 0.023 0.11 -0.089 -0.009 0.031 0.037 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunHybrid 6 0.043 0.051 0.062 -0.001 0.063 -0.008 0.034 0.087 -0.02 0.051 0.053 0.015 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunAdjust 9 0.022 0.028 0.031 0.0 0.033 -0.009 0.016 0.017 -0.018 0.046 0.033 -0.0 CMAandFDU 4 Fengshun 15 -0.008 -0.011 0.008 -0.009 -0.01 -0.018 -0.023 -0.035 -0.063 0.001 0.03 -0.053 UWAtmosNVIDIA 5 DLESyMS2Sv1 10 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.013 0.024 0.011 0.023 0.031 -0.021 -0.0 -0.003 0.015 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 11 0.011 0.029 -0.001 -0.012 0.002 -0.008 -0.014 -0.009 -0.006 0.041 0.008 -0.018 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 16 -0.024 -0.02 -0.027 -0.045 -0.025 -0.02 -0.039 -0.033 -0.068 -0.01 -0.023 -0.044 scienceAI 7 zephyr 12 0.003 -0.016 0.017 0.018 0.021 0.043 -0.016 0.04 -0.045 -0.075 0.004 -0.006 scienceAI 7 findforecast 13 -0.006 -0.0 -0.008 0.008 -0.027 -0.017 -0.033 -0.009 -0.023 -0.001 -0.004 -0.005 scienceAI 7 ngcm 14 -0.007 -0.016 0.016 0.017 0.009 -0.042 -0.007 0.031 -0.048 -0.067 0.003 0.002 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 17 -0.03 -0.06 -0.003 0.016 0.006 -0.029 -0.036 -0.061 -0.085 -0.031 -0.005 -0.044 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 18 -0.032 -0.055 -0.011 0.002 -0.011 -0.016 -0.041 -0.057 -0.099 -0.025 -0.021 -0.026 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu3 19 -0.039 -0.077 -0.007 -0.019 -0.018 0.016 -0.016 -0.049 -0.096 -0.055 -0.018 -0.066 JR 9 slowMamba 20 -0.051 -0.077 -0.009 -0.028 0.007 -0.123 -0.022 0.007 -0.121 -0.076 -0.024 -0.089 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S1 21 -0.117 -0.125 -0.078 -0.075 -0.257 -0.059 -0.073 -0.088 -0.077 -0.125 -0.183 -0.132 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S2 22 -0.119 -0.169 -0.054 0.001 -0.17 -0.094 -0.145 -0.086 -0.137 -0.176 -0.094 -0.146 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S3 23 -0.142 -0.15 -0.096 -0.114 -0.219 -0.196 -0.194 -0.146 -0.162 -0.181 -0.085 -0.109
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.046 0.062 0.054 0.001 0.033 0.004 0.021 0.061 0.013 0.087 0.051 0.002 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.035 0.046 0.053 0.0 0.035 -0.025 0.015 0.058 -0.002 0.089 0.043 -0.009 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 6 0.012 -0.006 0.048 -0.025 0.045 -0.011 0.038 0.058 -0.045 -0.013 0.017 -0.022 LP 2 LPM 3 0.02 0.019 0.053 -0.023 0.048 -0.057 0.039 0.053 -0.013 0.056 0.027 -0.029 CMAandFDU 3 FengshunHybrid 4 0.014 0.005 0.041 -0.015 0.045 -0.015 0.034 0.04 -0.038 0.033 0.023 -0.026 CMAandFDU 3 FengshunAdjust 10 0.001 -0.011 0.025 -0.01 0.032 -0.015 0.01 0.025 -0.027 0.022 0.002 -0.044 CMAandFDU 3 Fengshun 15 -0.024 -0.03 -0.017 -0.028 0.01 -0.018 -0.054 -0.055 -0.05 -0.035 0.019 -0.077 AIFS 4 AIFShera 5 0.012 -0.001 0.053 -0.017 0.043 -0.018 0.076 0.03 -0.039 0.027 0.04 -0.044 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 8 0.006 -0.006 0.043 -0.014 0.019 -0.021 0.026 0.06 -0.042 0.007 0.008 -0.034 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 17 -0.04 -0.101 0.028 -0.027 0.038 -0.038 0.048 0.03 -0.193 -0.084 -0.01 -0.062 CliMA 5 CliMAWeather2 7 0.012 0.018 0.012 -0.012 0.005 0.011 0.003 0.0 -0.009 0.025 0.015 -0.013 CliMA 5 CliMAWeather 14 -0.021 -0.026 -0.016 -0.04 -0.024 0.011 -0.015 -0.034 -0.052 -0.011 -0.015 -0.045 scienceAI 6 findforecast 9 0.004 0.006 0.012 -0.0 -0.013 -0.015 -0.042 0.016 -0.009 0.005 0.009 -0.01 scienceAI 6 zephyr 11 -0.004 -0.013 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.015 -0.017 0.014 -0.009 -0.046 -0.008 -0.032 scienceAI 6 ngcm 13 -0.014 -0.029 0.006 0.002 0.01 -0.023 -0.013 0.009 -0.032 -0.036 -0.01 -0.033 UWAtmosNVIDIA 7 DLESyMS2Sv1 12 -0.008 -0.016 0.018 -0.017 0.002 -0.035 0.045 -0.014 -0.028 -0.002 -0.001 -0.034 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu3 16 -0.04 -0.045 -0.026 -0.024 -0.032 -0.075 -0.046 -0.006 -0.086 -0.029 -0.053 -0.048 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 19 -0.052 -0.098 -0.005 -0.026 -0.012 -0.018 -0.035 -0.04 -0.12 -0.054 -0.04 -0.098 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 20 -0.053 -0.091 -0.015 -0.022 0.005 -0.047 -0.044 -0.054 -0.109 -0.045 -0.041 -0.073 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 18 -0.041 -0.05 0.016 -0.052 -0.035 -0.136 -0.041 0.004 -0.038 -0.031 -0.025 -0.103 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 22 -0.085 -0.119 -0.055 -0.025 -0.073 -0.068 -0.062 -0.062 -0.068 -0.132 -0.101 -0.133 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 23 -0.134 -0.14 -0.126 -0.043 -0.087 -0.214 -0.19 -0.038 -0.117 -0.213 -0.184 -0.073 JR 10 slowMamba 21 -0.075 -0.101 -0.06 -0.036 -0.008 -0.095 -0.017 -0.071 -0.105 -0.107 -0.057 -0.075
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
