This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 2 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 19th February 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
MAM 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.11 0.165 0.09 0.029 0.038 0.071 0.042 0.142 0.117 0.096 0.104 0.164 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 2 0.108 0.154 0.098 0.049 0.007 0.083 0.045 0.132 0.081 0.123 0.112 0.127 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 15 0.056 0.063 0.043 0.034 0.096 0.029 -0.019 0.123 -0.006 0.002 0.08 0.113 AIFS 2 AIFSgaia 3 0.102 0.144 0.092 -0.015 0.042 0.072 0.012 0.149 0.084 0.062 0.11 0.19 AIFS 2 AIFSthalassa 9 0.088 0.117 0.093 0.001 0.053 0.023 -0.002 0.188 0.018 0.091 0.103 0.118 AIFS 2 AIFShera 11 0.083 0.119 0.069 -0.012 0.041 0.039 -0.082 0.127 0.038 0.062 0.125 0.156 CLINT 3 CLINTMF 4 0.101 0.156 0.072 0.038 0.05 0.056 -0.012 0.156 0.153 0.06 0.08 0.199 CLINT 3 CLINTDD 5 0.101 0.154 0.072 0.048 0.046 0.056 -0.006 0.16 0.16 0.056 0.075 0.199 CLINT 3 CLINTSE 10 0.088 0.143 0.065 0.04 0.038 0.015 -0.019 0.176 0.157 0.03 0.049 0.189 LP 4 LPM 6 0.099 0.153 0.072 0.009 0.049 0.061 0.002 0.11 0.11 0.082 0.101 0.183 MicroEnsemble 5 MicroDuet 7 0.093 0.146 0.075 0.03 -0.012 0.066 0.055 0.103 0.101 0.091 0.067 0.18 MicroEnsemble 5 Huracan 8 0.092 0.143 0.066 0.016 0.015 0.068 0.025 0.115 0.101 0.057 0.069 0.19 MicroEnsemble 5 StillLearning 12 0.075 0.112 0.082 0.031 -0.014 0.052 0.07 0.076 0.069 0.082 0.064 0.174 JR 6 slowMamba 13 0.065 0.093 0.069 0.033 0.098 -0.079 -0.015 0.174 0.038 0.025 0.087 0.126 scienceAI 7 zephyr 14 0.06 0.062 0.077 0.018 0.028 0.045 0.079 0.124 0.052 0.02 0.057 0.082 scienceAI 7 ngcm 16 0.052 0.048 0.088 0.016 0.065 -0.025 0.083 0.089 0.028 -0.017 0.099 0.1 scienceAI 7 findforecast 25 -0.02 -0.057 0.014 -0.032 -0.032 0.051 0.021 0.023 -0.045 -0.097 -0.026 -0.051 IgnisNeuralis42 8 GCast42 17 0.034 0.038 0.055 -0.044 0.001 0.072 0.108 0.05 0.019 -0.008 0.02 0.026 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 18 0.033 0.038 0.019 -0.051 0.028 0.082 0.003 0.053 -0.048 0.001 0.036 0.11 SBUHybrid 10 HybridPPx 19 0.024 0.014 0.057 -0.002 0.049 -0.018 -0.03 0.114 -0.01 0.027 0.031 0.016 SBUHybrid 10 HybridAC 21 0.005 -0.018 0.028 -0.002 0.03 0.015 -0.066 0.091 -0.011 -0.011 0.008 -0.049
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.078 0.106 0.06 0.014 0.046 0.062 0.093 0.078 0.021 0.111 0.092 0.121 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 2 0.075 0.107 0.057 -0.005 0.024 0.069 0.084 0.06 0.011 0.142 0.085 0.118 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 10 0.039 0.061 0.002 0.008 0.043 0.042 -0.049 0.126 0.048 0.073 -0.015 0.095 AIFS 2 AIFSgaia 3 0.059 0.068 0.056 0.017 0.044 0.054 0.034 0.095 -0.023 0.089 0.08 0.074 AIFS 2 AIFShera 14 0.034 0.041 0.022 0.012 0.04 0.052 0.007 0.064 -0.024 0.024 0.068 0.02 AIFS 2 AIFSthalassa 19 0.005 -0.043 0.055 0.04 0.026 0.029 0.037 0.074 -0.137 -0.043 0.072 0.007 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 4 0.056 0.093 0.031 -0.016 0.02 0.053 0.05 0.053 0.051 0.063 0.062 0.106 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 6 0.053 0.08 0.041 0.005 -0.002 0.057 0.07 0.031 0.045 0.05 0.057 0.096 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 9 0.04 0.055 0.042 0.015 -0.008 0.046 0.071 0.019 0.031 0.027 0.06 0.098 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 5 0.053 0.078 0.019 0.016 0.034 0.052 0.016 0.062 0.004 0.068 0.054 0.118 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 8 0.051 0.072 0.021 0.012 0.033 0.053 0.018 0.065 -0.008 0.063 0.053 0.117 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 11 0.037 0.061 0.007 0.007 0.025 0.015 0.009 0.053 -0.013 0.05 0.034 0.116 LP 5 LPM 7 0.052 0.086 0.019 0.026 0.017 0.052 -0.001 0.058 0.009 0.062 0.065 0.106 UWAtmosNVIDIA 6 DLESyMS2Sv1 12 0.036 0.048 0.011 -0.011 0.038 0.039 0.026 0.036 0.016 0.09 0.02 0.025 JR 7 slowMamba 13 0.035 0.051 0.028 0.005 0.052 -0.03 -0.003 0.079 0.027 0.049 0.053 0.077 scienceAI 8 zephyr 15 0.027 0.026 0.032 0.01 0.004 0.032 0.056 0.047 0.045 -0.007 0.023 0.008 scienceAI 8 ngcm 18 0.017 0.009 0.036 0.018 0.031 -0.015 0.053 0.045 0.031 -0.035 0.033 0.013 scienceAI 8 findforecast 26 -0.032 -0.07 0.001 -0.015 -0.02 0.011 0.034 -0.009 -0.022 -0.092 -0.031 -0.091 SBUHybrid 9 HybridPPx 16 0.026 0.04 0.02 -0.021 0.036 -0.006 -0.032 0.074 -0.014 0.057 0.041 -0.042 SBUHybrid 9 HybridAC 20 0.0 0.006 -0.002 -0.024 -0.035 0.005 -0.047 0.025 -0.001 0.035 -0.006 -0.086 IgnisNeuralis42 10 GCast42 17 0.025 0.041 0.014 -0.01 -0.042 0.073 0.05 -0.015 0.043 0.074 0.011 -0.011
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
