This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 5 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 12th March 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
MAM 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.105 0.143 0.107 0.004 0.059 0.052 0.068 0.147 0.037 0.122 0.121 0.1 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 7 0.083 0.12 0.088 0.014 -0.013 0.059 0.054 0.11 0.032 0.106 0.093 0.075 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 14 0.04 0.044 0.043 0.005 0.039 0.016 -0.022 0.102 -0.024 0.032 0.042 0.06 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 2 0.1 0.135 0.098 -0.001 0.076 0.045 0.083 0.122 0.064 0.106 0.122 0.131 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 5 0.09 0.119 0.093 0.021 0.049 0.05 0.082 0.101 0.062 0.112 0.101 0.117 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 9 0.078 0.099 0.094 0.021 0.037 0.046 0.079 0.091 0.037 0.098 0.095 0.115 LP 3 LPM 3 0.097 0.134 0.09 0.007 0.092 0.041 0.035 0.146 0.038 0.123 0.118 0.109 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 4 0.091 0.11 0.109 0.009 0.083 0.039 0.05 0.161 0.032 0.107 0.121 0.091 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 10 0.073 0.077 0.102 0.026 0.073 0.035 -0.002 0.207 -0.009 0.103 0.095 0.038 AIFS 4 AIFShera 11 0.072 0.088 0.088 -0.002 0.074 0.031 -0.017 0.158 -0.021 0.084 0.115 0.039 CLINT 5 CLINTMF 6 0.085 0.112 0.08 -0.001 0.091 0.05 0.015 0.153 0.054 0.081 0.097 0.095 CLINT 5 CLINTDD 8 0.083 0.11 0.078 0.001 0.081 0.05 0.013 0.152 0.061 0.075 0.092 0.096 CLINT 5 CLINTSE 12 0.068 0.096 0.067 -0.01 0.077 0.01 0.003 0.144 0.047 0.05 0.083 0.075 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 13 0.042 0.027 0.081 0.008 0.108 -0.01 0.022 0.135 -0.049 0.068 0.063 0.008 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 15 0.036 0.011 0.068 0.013 0.125 0.009 0.031 0.115 -0.04 0.041 0.053 -0.024 JR 7 slowMamba 16 0.035 0.052 0.03 0.025 0.052 -0.054 -0.03 0.125 0.031 0.028 0.033 0.058 scienceAI 8 ngcm 17 0.035 0.021 0.074 0.02 0.048 -0.016 0.053 0.077 0.028 -0.027 0.082 0.036 scienceAI 8 zephyr 19 0.032 0.014 0.071 0.01 0.019 0.026 0.066 0.085 0.029 -0.017 0.069 0.009 scienceAI 8 findforecast 22 -0.025 -0.066 0.012 -0.015 -0.009 0.025 0.03 0.004 -0.032 -0.095 -0.019 -0.062 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 18 0.034 0.035 0.03 -0.021 0.044 0.053 0.022 0.037 -0.012 0.066 0.055 0.026 IgnisNeuralis42 10 GCast42 20 0.026 0.031 0.034 -0.004 -0.021 0.042 0.044 0.017 0.032 0.001 0.018 0.006
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.072 0.107 0.064 -0.005 0.033 0.03 0.034 0.092 0.027 0.086 0.091 0.069 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 3 0.056 0.087 0.048 0.009 -0.02 0.049 0.043 0.069 0.016 0.082 0.055 0.066 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 11 0.034 0.042 0.04 -0.004 0.005 -0.0 -0.03 0.098 -0.003 0.014 0.024 0.077 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 2 0.056 0.079 0.056 -0.021 0.041 0.034 0.024 0.074 0.006 0.03 0.095 0.077 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 6 0.054 0.073 0.054 0.003 0.025 0.038 0.032 0.052 0.038 0.042 0.078 0.07 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 9 0.046 0.063 0.047 0.002 0.015 0.03 0.023 0.045 0.038 0.036 0.073 0.068 CLINT 3 CLINTDD 4 0.055 0.08 0.038 -0.023 0.04 0.045 -0.015 0.087 0.015 0.057 0.077 0.048 CLINT 3 CLINTMF 5 0.055 0.077 0.04 -0.027 0.042 0.05 -0.015 0.089 0.009 0.054 0.079 0.045 CLINT 3 CLINTSE 13 0.032 0.047 0.023 -0.029 0.03 0.007 -0.039 0.062 -0.019 0.004 0.069 0.041 LP 4 LPM 7 0.053 0.089 0.032 -0.018 0.029 0.026 -0.038 0.075 0.011 0.057 0.083 0.054 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 8 0.051 0.07 0.052 0.003 0.026 0.025 0.007 0.105 -0.007 0.05 0.067 0.046 AIFS 5 AIFShera 10 0.046 0.059 0.045 0.006 0.058 0.033 -0.023 0.118 -0.015 0.013 0.069 0.019 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 20 0.002 -0.028 0.048 -0.0 0.006 0.021 -0.016 0.094 -0.143 -0.035 0.04 -0.026 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 12 0.032 0.033 0.057 -0.035 0.069 -0.02 -0.009 0.089 -0.033 0.058 0.076 -0.047 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 14 0.02 0.013 0.053 -0.032 0.049 -0.007 0.015 0.066 -0.024 0.059 0.045 -0.077 IgnisNeuralis42 7 GCast42 15 0.019 0.029 0.018 0.014 -0.051 0.026 0.018 0.003 0.023 -0.011 0.019 0.003 scienceAI 8 ngcm 16 0.018 0.013 0.039 0.019 0.016 -0.014 0.021 0.065 0.027 -0.042 0.021 0.007 scienceAI 8 zephyr 17 0.018 0.011 0.034 0.01 0.005 0.009 0.027 0.053 0.03 -0.045 0.023 -0.006 scienceAI 8 findforecast 23 -0.023 -0.062 0.006 0.004 -0.004 0.029 0.026 -0.01 -0.008 -0.08 -0.014 -0.058 JR 9 slowMamba 18 0.014 0.024 0.034 0.003 0.011 -0.062 -0.013 0.07 -0.027 0.007 0.05 0.015 UWAtmosNVIDIA 10 DLESyMS2Sv1 19 0.01 0.017 -0.005 -0.018 0.012 0.024 -0.018 0.012 -0.003 0.029 0.034 -0.013
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
