202509 - Tropical Cyclone - Bualoi

Material from: Linus, Ervin

1. Overview

The tropical cyclone Bualoi first hit the Philippines and later Vietnam in September causing widespread flooding.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Bualoi

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

The evaluation will focus on the 1-day precipitation on 28 September in the box 17N-20V, 104.5E-107.5E.

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 26 September 00UTC to 29 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.

2.3 Observations

2.4 Climatological perspective

3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations and analysis for the event

Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)

DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)

AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)

AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)

The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation on 28 Sept.

Forecast Evolution plot

The evolution plot below shows the forecasts for 24-hour precipitation inside the box outlined above.

Legend:

Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE 4.4km - evergreen
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink

ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle

Tropical cyclone forecasts

The plots below show forecasts from IFS with the symbols indicating the intensity and position on 28 September 00UTC (control forecast - blue, perturbed members - grey, BestTrack -black).

The plots below show forecasts from AIFS with the symbols indicating the intensity and position on 28 September 00UTC (AIFS-single - red, control forecast - blue, perturbed members - grey, BestTrack -black).