This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the MAM 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 6 forecasts initialized between Thursday 12th February 2026 and Thursday 19th March 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
MAM 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.103 0.142 0.11 -0.004 0.057 0.048 0.056 0.149 0.034 0.107 0.132 0.102 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 7 0.084 0.116 0.093 0.016 -0.003 0.068 0.045 0.118 0.034 0.087 0.103 0.07 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 15 0.035 0.036 0.05 0.005 0.032 0.009 -0.014 0.092 -0.024 0.01 0.047 0.055 LP 2 LPM 2 0.095 0.129 0.095 0.001 0.093 0.04 0.036 0.143 0.025 0.113 0.131 0.114 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 3 0.093 0.124 0.098 -0.004 0.071 0.041 0.068 0.125 0.04 0.082 0.129 0.127 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 4 0.087 0.116 0.094 0.02 0.047 0.045 0.068 0.103 0.051 0.101 0.111 0.12 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 9 0.079 0.104 0.095 0.017 0.036 0.039 0.066 0.094 0.035 0.099 0.108 0.117 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 5 0.086 0.111 0.089 -0.013 0.094 0.049 0.02 0.149 0.041 0.074 0.117 0.088 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 6 0.084 0.111 0.086 -0.009 0.085 0.049 0.015 0.148 0.05 0.068 0.113 0.087 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 11 0.062 0.082 0.07 -0.014 0.079 0.002 -0.002 0.13 0.023 0.015 0.103 0.07 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 8 0.084 0.101 0.107 -0.021 0.081 0.038 0.048 0.158 0.008 0.079 0.126 0.082 AIFS 5 AIFShera 10 0.066 0.082 0.087 -0.026 0.072 0.037 -0.015 0.157 -0.037 0.055 0.115 0.044 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 12 0.06 0.067 0.094 -0.014 0.057 0.015 -0.008 0.189 -0.022 0.066 0.09 0.023 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 13 0.045 0.042 0.08 -0.008 0.097 -0.017 0.015 0.133 -0.049 0.065 0.075 0.021 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 14 0.039 0.025 0.068 -0.006 0.115 0.003 0.026 0.12 -0.047 0.045 0.06 -0.006 UWAtmosNVIDIA 7 DLESyMS2Sv1 16 0.032 0.031 0.04 -0.029 0.047 0.047 0.028 0.048 -0.038 0.043 0.071 0.028 scienceAI 8 ngcm 17 0.028 0.011 0.07 0.012 0.055 -0.013 0.049 0.074 0.025 -0.05 0.072 0.029 scienceAI 8 zephyr 18 0.024 -0.001 0.066 0.004 0.032 0.024 0.057 0.08 0.031 -0.058 0.064 0.004 scienceAI 8 findforecast 22 -0.021 -0.057 0.008 -0.01 -0.009 0.03 0.022 -0.001 -0.016 -0.08 -0.018 -0.05 JR 9 slowMamba 19 0.023 0.031 0.037 0.019 0.027 -0.05 -0.024 0.116 0.005 -0.007 0.032 0.038 IgnisNeuralis42 10 GCast42 20 0.022 0.025 0.029 -0.001 -0.016 0.033 0.035 0.02 0.027 -0.015 0.013 0.009
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 1 0.059 0.091 0.054 0.002 0.021 0.019 0.04 0.081 0.028 0.08 0.079 0.056 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 2 0.048 0.077 0.042 0.006 -0.021 0.044 0.046 0.061 0.03 0.082 0.05 0.043 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 11 0.023 0.033 0.025 -0.003 -0.003 -0.005 -0.036 0.085 0.012 0.026 0.011 0.043 LP 2 LPM 3 0.047 0.077 0.028 -0.015 0.031 0.029 -0.029 0.073 0.024 0.053 0.077 0.038 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 4 0.047 0.071 0.042 0.007 0.009 0.026 0.03 0.045 0.043 0.05 0.063 0.064 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 7 0.044 0.07 0.038 -0.016 0.02 0.024 0.024 0.062 0.026 0.039 0.071 0.058 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 9 0.038 0.059 0.038 0.004 0.001 0.019 0.024 0.037 0.034 0.039 0.059 0.059 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 5 0.046 0.064 0.031 -0.008 0.044 0.038 -0.003 0.078 0.027 0.053 0.065 0.035 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 6 0.045 0.059 0.033 -0.013 0.046 0.045 -0.004 0.081 0.021 0.047 0.065 0.032 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 13 0.019 0.029 0.013 -0.006 0.016 -0.017 -0.039 0.054 0.011 0.011 0.048 0.021 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 8 0.04 0.056 0.041 0.006 0.019 0.023 0.008 0.1 0.011 0.054 0.054 0.014 AIFS 5 AIFShera 10 0.037 0.047 0.036 0.005 0.053 0.025 -0.016 0.113 -0.001 0.03 0.054 -0.013 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 23 -0.024 -0.064 0.033 -0.006 -0.009 0.001 -0.007 0.078 -0.15 -0.053 0.017 -0.076 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 12 0.022 0.022 0.045 -0.028 0.051 -0.022 -0.002 0.079 -0.033 0.048 0.059 -0.048 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 16 0.015 0.01 0.044 -0.023 0.034 -0.009 0.022 0.059 -0.02 0.048 0.037 -0.07 scienceAI 7 zephyr 14 0.016 0.011 0.03 0.014 0.006 0.002 0.029 0.052 0.034 -0.023 0.018 -0.016 scienceAI 7 ngcm 15 0.015 0.011 0.033 0.016 0.013 -0.01 0.027 0.059 0.031 -0.027 0.017 -0.005 scienceAI 7 findforecast 22 -0.022 -0.056 0.003 0.008 -0.013 0.034 0.026 -0.01 -0.008 -0.075 -0.02 -0.057 IgnisNeuralis42 8 GCast42 17 0.013 0.027 0.01 0.006 -0.044 0.001 0.024 -0.0 0.035 0.009 0.012 -0.02 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 18 0.012 0.027 -0.006 -0.025 0.006 0.014 -0.012 0.02 0.017 0.054 0.024 -0.037 JR 10 slowMamba 19 -0.001 0.014 0.013 -0.006 -0.014 -0.079 -0.01 0.05 -0.032 0.012 0.023 -0.007
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
