On this page we provide an overview of sub-seasonal forecast model data downloaded from the WMO Lead Centre. The data is downloaded at a 1.5 degree resolution and is freely-available from the ECMWF-hosted sub-seasonal forecast data portal. Throughout the AI Weather Quest, this data will be used to benchmark AI-based sub-seasonal forecasting systems. The following page describes full details regarding the latest model versions including frequency of forecasts/reforecasts and ensemble sizes. 


WMO Lead Centre Name

ECMWF

Montreal

Moscow

Tokyo

Washington

Seoul

Producing/Contributing CentreECMWFEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaHydrometeorological Centre of Russia

Japan Meteorological Agency

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Korea Meteorological Administration

MARS catalogue nameecmfcwaorums

rjtd

kwbc

rksl

Webpage describing model descriptionECMWF model descriptionECCC model descriptionHMCR model description

JMA model description

NCEP model description

KMA model description

Legend label for ECMWF science blogECMWF IFS CY49R1/CY48R1ECCC GEPS8HMCR EK40/EB40JMA CPS3NCEP CFSv2KMA GloSea6-GC3.2
Details regarding AI Weather Quest-led analysis
Forecast initialisation date selectionOnly forecasts from the initialisation date.Only forecasts from the initialisation date.Only forecasts from the initialisation date.Forecasts from current day, -1 day & -2 day (i.e. Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday start dates).Only forecasts from the initialisation date.Forecasts from current day + -1 day (i.e. Thursday and Wednesday start dates).
Number of ensemble members (one control plus perturbed).10121415 (x3 = 15)157 (x2 = 14)
Hindcast date selection< 20241112: select initialisations -3 and 0 days [pre Monday and Thursday]. >= 20241112: if odd day use -2 and 0 days, if even use -1 and 1 days [as reforecasts are run every two days].-3, 0 and 4 days from initialisation date (Monday, Thursday, Monday)Single initialisation date (day 0)Select nearest hindcast date before and after initialisation date (i.e. two dates chosen).-4, -2, 0, 2 and 4 days from initialisation date.Select nearest hindcast date before and after initialisation date (i.e. two dates chosen).
Hindcast years used.2006-2016 [11 years]2006-2016 [11 years]

2006-2016 [11 years]

except < 16/10/2024 where 10 years 2006-2015


2006-2016 [11 years]2006-2010 5 years]  2006-2016 [11 years]
Number of hindcast members per initialisation (full number used to compute climatology).11 (x11x2=242)4 (x11x3=132)

10 (x11=110)

100 members < 16/10/2024

5 (x2x11=110)4 (x5x5=100)7 (x11x2=154)


The AI Weather Quest would like to thank all those responsible for maintaining the sub-seasonal WMO lead centre database. It's no easy task!

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