On this page we provide an overview of sub-seasonal forecast model data downloaded from the WMO Lead Centre. The data is downloaded at a 1.5 degree resolution and is freely-available from the ECMWF-hosted sub-seasonal forecast data portal. Throughout the AI Weather Quest, this data will be used to benchmark AI-based sub-seasonal forecasting systems. The following page describes full details regarding the latest model versions including frequency of forecasts/reforecasts and ensemble sizes.
WMO Lead Centre Name | ECMWF | Montreal | Moscow | Tokyo | Washington | Seoul |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Producing/Contributing Centre | ECMWF | Environment and Climate Change Canada | Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia | Japan Meteorological Agency | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | Korea Meteorological Administration |
| MARS catalogue name | ecmf | cwao | rums | rjtd | kwbc | rksl |
| Webpage describing model description | ECMWF model description | ECCC model description | HMCR model description | NCEP model description | ||
| Legend label for ECMWF science blog | ECMWF IFS CY49R1/CY48R1 | ECCC GEPS8 | HMCR EK40/EB40 | JMA CPS3 | NCEP CFSv2 | KMA GloSea6-GC3.2 |
| Details regarding AI Weather Quest-led analysis | ||||||
| Forecast initialisation date selection | Only forecasts from the initialisation date. | Only forecasts from the initialisation date. | Only forecasts from the initialisation date. | Forecasts from current day, -1 day & -2 day (i.e. Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday start dates). | Only forecasts from the initialisation date. | Forecasts from current day + -1 day (i.e. Thursday and Wednesday start dates). |
| Number of ensemble members (one control plus perturbed). | 101 | 21 | 41 | 5 (x3 = 15) | 15 | 7 (x2 = 14) |
| Hindcast date selection | < 20241112: select initialisations -3 and 0 days [pre Monday and Thursday]. >= 20241112: if odd day use -2 and 0 days, if even use -1 and 1 days [as reforecasts are run every two days]. | -3, 0 and 4 days from initialisation date (Monday, Thursday, Monday) | Single initialisation date (day 0) | Select nearest hindcast date before and after initialisation date (i.e. two dates chosen). | -4, -2, 0, 2 and 4 days from initialisation date. | Select nearest hindcast date before and after initialisation date (i.e. two dates chosen). |
| Hindcast years used. | 2006-2016 [11 years] | 2006-2016 [11 years] | 2006-2016 [11 years] except < 16/10/2024 where 10 years 2006-2015 | 2006-2016 [11 years] | 2006-2010 5 years] | 2006-2016 [11 years] |
| Number of hindcast members per initialisation (full number used to compute climatology). | 11 (x11x2=242) | 4 (x11x3=132) | 10 (x11=110) 100 members < 16/10/2024 | 5 (x2x11=110) | 4 (x5x5=100) | 7 (x11x2=154) |
The AI Weather Quest would like to thank all those responsible for maintaining the sub-seasonal WMO lead centre database. It's no easy task!